WORLD UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Tüpraş Stadyumu
Referee: François Letexier, France
SC Freiburg
Match Timeline
Aston Villa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Philipp Treu
SC Freiburg
🟨
15'
Emiliano Buendía
Aston Villa
🟨
21'
Matty Cash
Aston Villa
41'
Y. Tielemans · Assist: M. Rogers
Aston Villa
45'
E. Buendia · Assist: J. McGinn
Aston Villa
58'
M. Rogers · Assist: E. Buendia
Aston Villa
🔄
61'
N. Hofler ↔ L. Holer
SC Freiburg
🔄
61'
P. Lienhart ↔ M. Rosenfelder
SC Freiburg
🔄
66'
V. Lindelof ↔ A. Onana
Aston Villa
🔄
73'
L. Kubler ↔ J. Makengo
SC Freiburg
🔄
73'
V. Grifo ↔ D. Scherhant
SC Freiburg
🔄
81'
L. Digne ↔ I. Maatsen
Aston Villa
🔄
81'
E. Buendia ↔ J. Sancho
Aston Villa
🟨
84'
John McGinn
Aston Villa
🔄
86'
J. Beste ↔ C. Gunter
SC Freiburg
🔄
88'
P. Torres ↔ T. Mings
Aston Villa
🔄
88'
Y. Tielemans ↔ Douglas Luiz
Aston Villa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 89.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
89.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
86.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
SC Freiburg Win 67.5%
Draw 0%
Aston Villa Win 32.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Freiburg1.4
Aston Villa1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
WWDLW
76 GF / 67 GA
Aston Villa Aston Villa
WLDWL
85 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
28
BTTS Yes
28
29
Over 2.5
28
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 48 matches
Aston Villa Aston Villa 53 matches
SC Freiburg Statistic Aston Villa
22 Wins 31
10 Draws 8
16 Losses 14
76 Goals For 85
67 Goals Against 60
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
28 BTTS Yes 28
37 Over 1.5 39
29 Over 2.5 28
17 Over 3.5 16
11 Clean Sheets 17
12 Failed To Score 11
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.74
12.65 Total Shots 12.53
4.21 Corners 5.21
48.3% Ball Possession 53.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Aston Villa seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aston Villa. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Aston Villa look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

SC Freiburg Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, SC Freiburg arrive from a league campaign that has them 7 with 17 points after 8 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 10:4 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on V. Grifo (5 goals), Y. Suzuki (4 goals), I. Matanovic (3 goals), with creative support from V. Grifo (4 assists), J. Beste (4 assists), Y. Suzuki (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. Although they are without P. Osterhage, Y. Suzuki, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Aston Villa Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Aston Villa arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 21 points after 8 matches. The return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 14:6 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking influence is driven by J. McGinn (5 goals), O. Watkins (5 goals), D. Malen (4 goals), with creative support from E. Buendia (5 assists), Morgan Rogers (4 assists), Y. Tielemans (3 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Alysson, B. Kamara, B. Madjo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, SC Freiburg won 0 times, Aston Villa won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:3 from SC Freiburg's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1 / Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Missing players: SC Freiburg 3, Aston Villa 5
H2H summary: SC Freiburg wins 0, draws 0, Aston Villa wins 1

Standings

UEFA Europa League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:5 13 21
W W W W L
2 8 7 0 1 14:6 8 21
W W W W W
3 8 6 1 1 18:8 10 19
W D W L W
4 8 5 2 1 13:7 6 17
W L W W W
5 8 5 2 1 13:7 6 17
W D W W D
6 8 5 2 1 11:5 6 17
D W W D L
7 8 5 2 1 10:4 6 17
L W W D W
8 8 5 1 2 13:6 7 16
D W W W W
9 8 5 1 2 11:7 4 16
W W L W W
10 8 4 3 1 14:7 7 15
W D W W D
11 8 5 0 3 15:9 6 15
W L W W W
12 8 4 3 1 12:11 1 15
L D W D W
13 8 4 2 2 15:7 8 14
W L W W D
14 8 3 5 0 8:3 5 14
W D D D D
15 8 4 2 2 7:6 1 14
D W W W W
16 8 4 1 3 15:11 4 13
D W L L W
17 8 3 3 2 17:14 3 12
L W D D W
18 8 4 0 4 12:9 3 12
W L L W L
19 8 3 3 2 10:7 3 12
D L W D D
20 8 3 3 2 11:9 2 12
D D D W W
21 8 3 2 3 13:15 -2 11
W D L W L
22 8 3 1 4 12:15 -3 10
W L D W L
23 8 3 1 4 12:16 -4 10
L W L L L
24 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L D L D D
25 8 3 0 5 10:16 -6 9
L L W L L
26 8 2 1 5 5:11 -6 7
W L L L D
27 8 2 1 5 9:16 -7 7
D L W L L
28 8 2 1 5 6:14 -8 7
D L L L L
29 8 2 0 6 11:15 -4 6
L W L L L
30 8 2 0 6 9:13 -4 6
L L L L W
31 8 2 0 6 10:15 -5 6
L W L L W
32 8 1 1 6 5:14 -9 4
L W L D L
33 8 1 0 7 7:15 -8 3
L W L L L
34 8 0 1 7 5:15 -10 1
L L L L D
35 8 0 1 7 4:15 -11 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 2:22 -20 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)