Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
67.5%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
89.2%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
86.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
83.2%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
SC Freiburg
Aston Villa
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
SC Freiburg
48 matches
Aston Villa
53 matches
| SC Freiburg | Statistic | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Wins | 31 |
| 10 | Draws | 8 |
| 16 | Losses | 14 |
| 76 | Goals For | 85 |
| 67 | Goals Against | 60 |
| 1.58 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.6 |
| 1.4 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.13 |
| 28 | BTTS Yes | 28 |
| 37 | Over 1.5 | 39 |
| 29 | Over 2.5 | 28 |
| 17 | Over 3.5 | 16 |
| 11 | Clean Sheets | 17 |
| 12 | Failed To Score | 11 |
| 4.5 | Shots On Goal | 4.74 |
| 12.65 | Total Shots | 12.53 |
| 4.21 | Corners | 5.21 |
| 48.3% | Ball Possession | 53.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Aston Villa seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aston Villa. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Aston Villa look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.
Ahead of this knockout test, SC Freiburg arrive from a league campaign that has them 7 with 17 points after 8 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 10:4 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on V. Grifo (5 goals), Y. Suzuki (4 goals), I. Matanovic (3 goals), with creative support from V. Grifo (4 assists), J. Beste (4 assists), Y. Suzuki (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. Although they are without P. Osterhage, Y. Suzuki, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.
Ahead of this knockout test, Aston Villa arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 21 points after 8 matches. The return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 14:6 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking influence is driven by J. McGinn (5 goals), O. Watkins (5 goals), D. Malen (4 goals), with creative support from E. Buendia (5 assists), Morgan Rogers (4 assists), Y. Tielemans (3 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Alysson, B. Kamara, B. Madjo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, SC Freiburg won 0 times, Aston Villa won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:3 from SC Freiburg's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
SC Freiburg
2
6
2
6
0
5
Lineups
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
VfL Wolfsburg
SC Freiburg
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund
SC Freiburg
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Freiburg
Celta Vigo
SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
Celta Vigo
SC Freiburg
Bayern München
SC Freiburg
FC St. Pauli
SC Freiburg
Genk
SC Freiburg
Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
Genk
SC Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
SC Freiburg
Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg
1899 Hoffenheim
SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Aston Villa
Burnley
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Elche
Aston Villa
West Ham
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Wolves
Aston Villa
Leeds
Aston Villa
Newcastle
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
VfL Wolfsburg
SC Freiburg
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Freiburg
Celta Vigo
SC Freiburg
Bayern München
SC Freiburg
Genk
SC Freiburg
Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg
1. FC Köln
SC Freiburg
Maccabi Tel Aviv
SC Freiburg
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund
SC Freiburg
Red Bull Salzburg
SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
FC St. Pauli
SC Freiburg
Utrecht
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Burnley
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Wolves
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Aston Villa
West Ham
Aston Villa
FC Basel 1893
Aston Villa
Brighton
Aston Villa
Leeds
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 | 21 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 2 |
Aston Villa
Away
|
8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14:6 | 8 | 21 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 10 | 19 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 6 | 17 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 6 | 17 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11:5 | 6 | 17 |
D
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 7 |
SC Freiburg
Home
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10:4 | 6 | 17 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 7 | 16 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 16 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:7 | 7 | 15 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 15 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 12 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 13 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 8 | 14 |
W
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8:3 | 5 | 14 |
W
D
D
D
D
|
|
| 15 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 14 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:11 | 4 | 13 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 17 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17:14 | 3 | 12 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 18 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12:9 | 3 | 12 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 19 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 12 |
D
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:9 | 2 | 12 |
D
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 21 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:15 | -2 | 11 |
W
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 22 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 |
W
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 23 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
L
D
L
D
D
|
|
| 25 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:16 | -6 | 9 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 26 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5:11 | -6 | 7 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 27 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:16 | -7 | 7 |
D
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 28 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 7 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11:15 | -4 | 6 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9:13 | -4 | 6 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 31 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 6 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 32 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:14 | -9 | 4 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7:15 | -8 | 3 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 34 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4:15 | -11 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 36 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2:22 | -20 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
L
|