ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Stadium of Light
Referee: D. England
Sunderland
Match Timeline
Nottingham Forest
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
T. Hume
Nottingham Forest
31'
C. Wood · Assist: M. Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
34'
M. Gibbs-White · Assist: Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
37'
Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
🔄
46'
C. Rigg ↔ R. Mandava
Sunderland
🔄
46'
I. Sangare ↔ N. Dominguez
Nottingham Forest
🔄
50'
Cunha ↔ Morato
Nottingham Forest
🟨
51'
Habib Diarra
Sunderland
🟨
51'
Nicolás Domínguez
Nottingham Forest
🟨
58'
Elliot Anderson
Nottingham Forest
🟨
60'
Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
VAR
63'
Daniel Ballard
Sunderland
🔄
65'
H. Diarra ↔ W. Isidor
Sunderland
🔄
67'
Igor Jesus ↔ R. Yates
Nottingham Forest
🔄
67'
O. Hutchinson ↔ L. Netz
Nottingham Forest
🟨
69'
Neco Williams
Nottingham Forest
🟨
75'
Granit Xhaka
Sunderland
🟨
76'
Ryan Yates
Nottingham Forest
🔄
88'
C. Wood ↔ T. Awoniyi
Nottingham Forest
90'
E. Anderson · Assist: T. Awoniyi
Nottingham Forest

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Sunderland Win 48.8%
Draw 15.6%
Nottingham Forest Win 35.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sunderland1.14
Nottingham Forest1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sunderland Sunderland
WWDLW
38 GF / 42 GA
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
WLDWL
62 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
16
BTTS Yes
21
14
Over 2.5
26
3.67
Shots on Goal
4.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sunderland Sunderland 36 matches
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 48 matches
Sunderland Statistic Nottingham Forest
13 Wins 16
11 Draws 13
12 Losses 19
38 Goals For 62
42 Goals Against 60
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
16 BTTS Yes 21
24 Over 1.5 37
14 Over 2.5 26
5 Over 3.5 11
11 Clean Sheets 14
12 Failed To Score 17
3.67 Shots On Goal 4.77
10.58 Total Shots 14.17
3.86 Corners 5.54
45.3% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nottingham Forest.

Sunderland Analysis

Sunderland sit 11 with 46 points after 33 league matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 33:36 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Brobbey (6 goals), W. Isidor (5 goals), C. Talbi (4 goals), with creative support from E. Le Fee (5 assists), Granit Xhaka (5 assists), N. Mukiele (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with N. Angulo, J. T. Bi, R. Mundle unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Nottingham Forest Analysis

With 36 points from 33 games and a place of 16, Nottingham Forest still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 32:44, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Gibbs-White (12 goals), Igor Jesus (4 goals), C. Hudson-Odoi (3 goals), with creative support from C. Hudson-Odoi (4 assists), O. Hutchinson (4 assists), Igor Jesus (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with W. Boly, John Victor, N. Savona unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Sunderland won 2 times, Nottingham Forest won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:7 from Sunderland's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.4%)
Predicted formations: Sunderland 4-2-3-1 / Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sunderland 5, Nottingham Forest 5
H2H summary: Sunderland wins 2, draws 1, Nottingham Forest wins 2
Stats
Sunderland Sunderland
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
2
3 Corner Kicks 6
13 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 1
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Goal 6
3 Shots off Goal 2
7 Blocked Shots 2
7 Shots insidebox 6
7 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
436 Total passes 273
358 Passes accurate 199
0.70 expected_goals 1.10
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Sunderland
Formation
Nottingham Forest
R. Roefs
R. Roefs
N. Mukiele
N. Mukiele
D. Ballard
D. Ballard
O. Alderete
O. Alderete
T. Hume
T. Hume
G. Xhaka
G. Xhaka
N. Sadiki
N. Sadiki
C. Rigg
C. Rigg
H. Diarra
H. Diarra
E. Le Fee
E. Le Fee
B. Brobbey
B. Brobbey
M. Sels
M. Sels
O. Aina
O. Aina
N. Milenkovic
N. Milenkovic
Cunha
Cunha
N. Williams
N. Williams
O. Hutchinson
O. Hutchinson
I. Sangare
I. Sangare
E. Anderson
E. Anderson
M. Gibbs-White
🎯
M. Gibbs-White
Igor Jesus
🎯
Igor Jesus
C. Wood
C. Wood
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
R. Roefs
G
20
N. Mukiele
D
5
D. Ballard
D
15
O. Alderete
D
32
T. Hume
⚽ 17'
D
34
G. Xhaka
🟨 75'
M
27
N. Sadiki
M
11
C. Rigg
↓ 46'
M
19
H. Diarra
↓ 65' 🟨 51'
M
28
E. Le Fee
M
9
B. Brobbey
F
Substitutes
31
M. Ellborg
G
3
D. Cirkin
D
50
H. Jones
M
7
C. Talbi
F
13
L. O'Nien
M
17
R. Mandava
↑ 46'
D
6
L. Geertruida
D
18
W. Isidor
↑ 65'
F
12
E. Mayenda
F
Nottingham Forest 4-4-2
Starting XI
26
M. Sels
G
34
O. Aina
D
31
N. Milenkovic
D
23
Cunha
↓ 50'
D
3
N. Williams
🟨 69'
D
21
O. Hutchinson
↓ 67'
M
6
I. Sangare
↓ 46'
M
8
E. Anderson
⚽ 90' 🟨 58'
M
10
M. Gibbs-White
⚽ 34' 🎯 31'
M
19
Igor Jesus
⚽ 37' 🎯 34' ↓ 67' 🟨 60'
F
11
C. Wood
⚽ 31' ↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
27
S. Ortega
G
9
T. Awoniyi
🎯 90' ↑ 88'
F
22
R. Yates
↑ 67' 🟨 76'
M
29
D. Bakwa
F
25
L. Netz
↑ 67'
D
24
J. McAtee
M
16
N. Dominguez
↑ 46' 🟨 51'
M
14
D. Ndoye
F
4
Morato
↑ 50'
D
Last matches: Sunderland
24.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Chelsea
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Everton
3
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Manchester United
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Wolves
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pre
Sunderland
Aston Villa
3
4
L
12.04.26
Pre
Sunderland
Tottenham
1
0
W
22.03.26
Pre
Sunderland
Newcastle
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Sunderland
Brighton
0
1
L
08.03.26
FA
Sunderland
Port Vale
0
1
L
03.03.26
Pre
Sunderland
Leeds
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Bournemouth
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Fulham
1
3
L
15.02.26
FA
Sunderland
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Liverpool
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Arsenal
0
3
L
02.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Burnley
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
West Ham
1
3
L
17.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
10.01.26
FA
Sunderland
Everton
1
1
D
07.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
Brentford
0
3
L
Last matches: Nottingham Forest
24.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
2
3
L
10.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle
1
1
D
07.05.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
0
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
3
1
W
30.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
4
1
W
16.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
09.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
3
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
0
0
D
12.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
0
1
L
04.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
2
2
D
01.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
1
2
L
26.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
0
1
L
19.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
3
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
0
0
D
H2H: Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
24.04.26
H2H
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
0
5
L
27.09.25
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
0
1
W
19.07.24
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
1
1
D
30.12.17
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
0
1
W
12.09.17
H2H
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
0
1
L
Last matches: Sunderland
24.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Chelsea
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Sunderland
Manchester United
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pre
Sunderland
Tottenham
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Sunderland
Brighton
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Fulham
1
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Liverpool
0
1
L
02.02.26
Pre
Sunderland
Burnley
3
0
W
17.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
01.01.26
Pre
Sunderland
Manchester City
0
0
D
28.12.25
Pre
Sunderland
Leeds
1
1
D
14.12.25
Pre
Sunderland
Newcastle
1
0
W
29.11.25
Pre
Sunderland
Bournemouth
3
2
W
08.11.25
Pre
Sunderland
Arsenal
2
2
D
03.11.25
Pre
Sunderland
Everton
1
1
D
18.10.25
Pre
Sunderland
Wolves
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pre
Sunderland
Aston Villa
1
1
D
30.08.25
Pre
Sunderland
Brentford
2
1
W
16.08.25
Pre
Sunderland
West Ham
3
0
W
H2H at home: Sunderland
24.04.26
H2H
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
0
5
L
12.09.17
H2H
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
0
1
L
Last matches: Nottingham Forest
17.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
2
3
L
07.05.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
0
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
3
1
W
09.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
3
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
2
2
D
01.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
1
2
L
19.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
3
0
W
06.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Leeds
1
3
L
25.01.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brentford
2
0
W
22.01.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
SC Braga
0
1
L
09.01.26
FA
Nottingham Forest
Wrexham
3
3
D
06.01.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
West Ham
2
1
W
03.01.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
3
L
22.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
0
1
L
11.12.25
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Utrecht
2
1
W
06.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Everton
0
3
L
03.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
1
0
W
22.11.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
3
0
W
H2H away: Nottingham Forest
24.04.26
H2H
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
0
5
W
12.09.17
H2H
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
0
1
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Sunderland 5 missing
-
N. Angulo
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. T. Bi
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
R. Mundle
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
B. Traore
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Alderete
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Nottingham Forest 5 missing
-
W. Boly
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
John Victor
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Savona
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Murillo
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
C. Hudson-Odoi
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT