19.08.2026 00:30
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Referee: W. Sampaio
Deportes Tolima
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
A. Rodriguez · Assist: E. Pata
Independiente del Valle
🔄
19'
B. Rovira ↔ L. Sanchez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
31'
Junior Hernández
Deportes Tolima
🟨
34'
Luis Sánchez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
46'
K. Florez ↔ E. Lopez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
47'
Richard Schunke
Independiente del Valle
🟨
52'
Mateo Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
🔄
70'
J. Sornoza ↔ R. Briones
Independiente del Valle
🔄
70'
E. Pata ↔ J. Angulo
Independiente del Valle
🔄
72'
J. Hurtado ↔ J. Valencia
Deportes Tolima
🔄
83'
A. Parra Osorio ↔ S. Aguayo
Deportes Tolima
🔄
83'
H. Quintana ↔ J. Mendez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
90'
A. Rodriguez ↔ A. Velasco
Independiente del Valle
🔄
90'
C. Gonzalez ↔ D. Reasco
Independiente del Valle

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.8%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.9%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportes Tolima Win 33.8%
Draw 3.4%
Independiente del Valle Win 62.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportes Tolima1.19
Independiente del Valle1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WWDLW
49 GF / 35 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
73 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
2.28
0.95
Average Goals Conceded
1
15
BTTS Yes
16
15
Over 2.5
20
4.68
Shots on Goal
6.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 37 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 32 matches
Deportes Tolima Statistic Independiente del Valle
17 Wins 25
9 Draws 2
11 Losses 5
49 Goals For 73
35 Goals Against 32
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 2.28
0.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1
15 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 27
15 Over 2.5 20
8 Over 3.5 14
15 Clean Sheets 13
11 Failed To Score 4
4.68 Shots On Goal 6.03
12.43 Total Shots 17.26
4.7 Corners 6.06
56.4% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independiente del Valle. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 13 points while Deportes Tolima sit 2 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportes Tolima expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Deportes Tolima arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 8 points after 6 matches. With 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses plus a goal ratio of 7:6, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Jersson González (2 goals), Luis Sandoval (2 goals), B. Rovira (1 goals), with creative support from Jersson González (1 assists), Luis Sandoval (1 assists), B. Rovira (1 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 13 points from 6 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 11:6 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on Carlos Gonzalez (6 goals), Junior Sornoza (2 goals), D. Reasco (1 goals), with creative support from L. Loor (2 assists), Junior Sornoza (1 assists), J. Alcivar (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Deportes Tolima won 1 times, Independiente del Valle won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:6 from Deportes Tolima's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Deportes Tolima wins 1, draws 1, Independiente del Valle wins 2

Standings

Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 3 1 2 8:6 2 10
L W W L W
2 6 2 2 2 7:6 1 8
D L W W L
3 6 2 2 2 7:9 -2 8
W D L L W
4 6 1 3 2 5:6 -1 6
D D L W L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals