ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
17.05.2026 11:30
Old Trafford
Referee: M. Salisbury
Manchester United
Match Timeline
Nottingham Forest
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
L. Shaw
Manchester United
53'
Morato · Assist: E. Anderson
Nottingham Forest
55'
M. Cunha
Manchester United
VAR
57'
Matheus Cunha
Manchester United
🔄
70'
C. Wood ↔ T. Awoniyi
Nottingham Forest
🔄
70'
N. Dominguez ↔ I. Sangare
Nottingham Forest
🔄
70'
O. Hutchinson ↔ D. Bakwa
Nottingham Forest
76'
B. Mbeumo · Assist: B. Fernandes
Manchester United
🟨
78'
Casemiro
Manchester United
78'
M. Gibbs-White · Assist: E. Anderson
Nottingham Forest
🔄
80'
B. Mbeumo ↔ J. Zirkzee
Manchester United
🔄
80'
M. Cunha ↔ P. Dorgu
Manchester United
🔄
81'
Casemiro ↔ M. Mount
Manchester United
🔄
84'
Igor Jesus ↔ J. McAtee
Nottingham Forest
🔄
84'
L. Netz ↔ Cunha
Nottingham Forest
🟨
90+3'
Luke Shaw
Manchester United
🟨
90+4'
Elliot Anderson
Nottingham Forest

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Manchester United Win 55.6%
Draw 10.1%
Nottingham Forest Win 34.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester United1.54
Nottingham Forest1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Manchester United Manchester United
WWDLW
64 GF / 50 GA
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
WLDWL
72 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
27
BTTS Yes
23
23
Over 2.5
29
5.65
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Manchester United Manchester United 37 matches
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 53 matches
Manchester United Statistic Nottingham Forest
18 Wins 19
11 Draws 14
8 Losses 20
64 Goals For 72
50 Goals Against 66
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
27 BTTS Yes 23
31 Over 1.5 41
23 Over 2.5 29
13 Over 3.5 14
7 Clean Sheets 16
4 Failed To Score 18
5.65 Shots On Goal 4.75
15.54 Total Shots 13.79
4.78 Corners 5.34
52.2% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Manchester United's more proactive style and Nottingham Forest's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Nottingham Forest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Manchester United expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nottingham Forest in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nottingham Forest having the stronger overall control. Manchester United arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 65 points compared to Nottingham Forest in 16 on 43, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Manchester United Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 65 points from 36 games, Manchester United bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 18 wins, 11 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 63:48, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through B. Sesko (11 goals), B. Mbeumo (9 goals), Casemiro (9 goals), with creative support from Bruno Fernandes (19 assists), B. Mbeumo (3 assists), Patrick Dorgu (3 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, the split of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Nottingham Forest Analysis

Nottingham Forest sit 16 with 43 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 45:47, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Gibbs-White (13 goals), Igor Jesus (6 goals), E. Anderson (4 goals), with creative support from M. Gibbs-White (4 assists), Igor Jesus (4 assists), C. Hudson-Odoi (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Manchester United won 7 times, Nottingham Forest won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:12 from Manchester United's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.09 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Manchester United 4-2-3-1 / Nottingham Forest 4-4-2
Missing players: Manchester United 3, Nottingham Forest 9
H2H summary: Manchester United wins 7, draws 1, Nottingham Forest wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship