Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
79.7%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
69.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
81.9%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Manchester City
53 matches
Aston Villa
54 matches
| Manchester City | Statistic | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Wins | 32 |
| 10 | Draws | 8 |
| 9 | Losses | 14 |
| 114 | Goals For | 88 |
| 50 | Goals Against | 60 |
| 2.15 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.63 |
| 0.94 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.11 |
| 26 | BTTS Yes | 28 |
| 47 | Over 1.5 | 40 |
| 33 | Over 2.5 | 29 |
| 14 | Over 3.5 | 16 |
| 22 | Clean Sheets | 18 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 11 |
| 5.83 | Shots On Goal | 4.76 |
| 15.89 | Total Shots | 12.61 |
| 6.4 | Corners | 5.26 |
| 60.8% | Ball Possession | 53.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aston Villa. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Manchester City expected to line up in 4-2-2-2 and Aston Villa in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aston Villa having the stronger overall control.
Manchester City approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 78 points after 37 outings. They have recorded 23 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, with a 76:33 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on E. Haaland (27 goals), P. Foden (7 goals), J. Doku (5 goals), with creative support from R. Cherki (12 assists), E. Haaland (8 assists), P. Foden (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 14 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.
Aston Villa arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 62 points after 37 matches. The record of 18 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 54:48 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through O. Watkins (14 goals), M. Rogers (10 goals), Emiliano Buendía (6 goals), with creative support from M. Rogers (6 assists), Lucas Digne (6 assists), John McGinn (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Manchester City won 10 times, Aston Villa won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 32:16 from Manchester City's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.
Manchester City
3
5
7
5
6
2
Lineups
Manchester City
Bournemouth
Manchester City
Chelsea
Manchester City
Crystal Palace
Manchester City
Brentford
Manchester City
Everton
Manchester City
Southampton
Manchester City
Burnley
Manchester City
Arsenal
Manchester City
Chelsea
Manchester City
Liverpool
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Manchester City
West Ham
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Newcastle
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Leeds
Manchester City
Newcastle
Manchester City
Salford City
Manchester City
Fulham
Manchester City
Liverpool
Aston Villa
SC Freiburg
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Aston Villa
Burnley
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Elche
Aston Villa
West Ham
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Wolves
Aston Villa
Leeds
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Manchester City
Crystal Palace
Manchester City
Brentford
Manchester City
Southampton
Manchester City
Arsenal
Manchester City
Liverpool
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Newcastle
Manchester City
Salford City
Manchester City
Fulham
Manchester City
Galatasaray
Manchester City
Wolves
Manchester City
Exeter City
Manchester City
Brighton
Manchester City
Chelsea
Manchester City
West Ham
Manchester City
Sunderland
Manchester City
Leeds
Manchester City
Bayer Leverkusen
Manchester City
Liverpool
Aston Villa
SC Freiburg
Aston Villa
Burnley
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Wolves
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Aston Villa
West Ham
Aston Villa
FC Basel 1893
Aston Villa
Brighton
Aston Villa
Leeds
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 44 | 85 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 |
Manchester City
Home
|
38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 78 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
| 3 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 19 | 71 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 |
Aston Villa
Away
|
38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 65 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
| 5 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 10 | 60 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 4 | 57 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | -6 | 54 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 6 | 53 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 3 | 53 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 6 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | -4 | 52 |
W
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | -2 | 49 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | -3 | 49 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | -7 | 47 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | -10 | 45 |
L
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | -3 | 44 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | -9 | 41 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | -19 | 39 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | -37 | 22 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | -41 | 20 |
D
D
L
D
L
|