ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Elland Road
Referee: T. Bramall
Leeds
Match Timeline
Burnley
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
A. Stach · Assist: J. Bijol
Leeds
🟨
27'
Pascal Struijk
Leeds
🟨
35'
Bashir Humphreys
Burnley
🟨
37'
Loum Tchaouna
Burnley
🟨
40'
Joe Rodon
Leeds
🟨
48'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Leeds
52'
N. Okafor · Assist: J. Bogle
Leeds
🔄
54'
J. Laurent ↔ H. Mejbri
Burnley
56'
D. Calvert-Lewin
Leeds
🔄
65'
N. Okafor ↔ L. Nmecha
Leeds
🔄
65'
Q. Hartman ↔ Lucas Pires
Burnley
🔄
65'
J. Ward-Prowse ↔ Florentino
Burnley
71'
L. Tchaouna · Assist: J. Anthony
Burnley
🔄
72'
A. Tanaka ↔ S. Longstaff
Leeds
🔄
72'
A. Stach ↔ B. Aaronson
Leeds
🟨
75'
Ethan Ampadu
Leeds
🔄
76'
Z. Flemming ↔ A. Broja
Burnley
🔄
76'
B. Humphreys ↔ Z. Amdouni
Burnley
🟨
88'
Hannibal Mejbri
Burnley
🔄
90+4'
J. Bogle ↔ D. James
Leeds
🔄
90+4'
D. Calvert-Lewin ↔ W. Gnonto
Leeds

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 41.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
41.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Leeds Win 56.8%
Draw 10.3%
Burnley Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leeds1.6
Burnley1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leeds Leeds
WWDLW
53 GF / 56 GA
Burnley Burnley
WLDWL
40 GF / 71 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.97
23
BTTS Yes
21
22
Over 2.5
19
4.26
Shots on Goal
3.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leeds Leeds 39 matches
Burnley Burnley 36 matches
Leeds Statistic Burnley
11 Wins 5
15 Draws 8
13 Losses 23
53 Goals For 40
56 Goals Against 71
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.97
23 BTTS Yes 21
29 Over 1.5 31
22 Over 2.5 19
15 Over 3.5 14
8 Clean Sheets 4
12 Failed To Score 13
4.26 Shots On Goal 3.11
13.23 Total Shots 9.67
4.67 Corners 3.86
46.3% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Burnley seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Burnley arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leeds expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Burnley in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Burnley having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Burnley. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Leeds arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 15 with 40 points compared to Burnley in 19 on 20, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Leeds Analysis

Leeds sit 15 with 40 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 13 draws, and 12 defeats with a 44:51 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Calvert-Lewin (11 goals), Noah Okafor (7 goals), L. Nmecha (6 goals), with creative support from Brenden Aaronson (5 assists), Anton Stach (3 assists), Ilia Gruev (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with I. Gruev unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Burnley Analysis

With 20 points from 34 games and a place of 19, Burnley still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 8 draws, and 22 defeats, and the 34:68 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Z. Flemming (9 goals), J. Anthony (7 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (5 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (3 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Z. Amdouni, J. Cullen, H. Mejbri, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Leeds won 5 times, Burnley won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:17 from Leeds's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.7%)
Predicted formations: Leeds 3-4-2-1 / Burnley 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Leeds 1, Burnley 3
H2H summary: Leeds wins 5, draws 4, Burnley wins 6
Stats
Leeds Leeds
Burnley Burnley
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
4
5 Corner Kicks 0
12 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 2
5 Blocked Shots 4
11 Shots insidebox 5
7 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
452 Total passes 508
359 Passes accurate 421
1.64 expected_goals 0.57
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Leeds
Formation
Burnley
K. Darlow
K. Darlow
J. Rodon
J. Rodon
J. Bijol
🎯
J. Bijol
P. Struijk
P. Struijk
J. Bogle
🎯
J. Bogle
A. Stach
A. Stach
E. Ampadu
E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
A. Tanaka
J. Justin
J. Justin
D. Calvert-Lewin
D. Calvert-Lewin
N. Okafor
N. Okafor
M. Dubravka
M. Dubravka
K. Walker
K. Walker
H. Ekdal
H. Ekdal
M. Esteve
M. Esteve
B. Humphreys
B. Humphreys
Q. Hartman
Q. Hartman
L. Tchaouna
L. Tchaouna
J. Laurent
J. Laurent
J. Ward-Prowse
J. Ward-Prowse
J. Anthony
🎯
J. Anthony
Z. Flemming
Z. Flemming
Leeds 3-5-2
Starting XI
26
K. Darlow
G
6
J. Rodon
🟨 40'
D
15
J. Bijol
🎯 8'
D
5
P. Struijk
🟨 27'
D
2
J. Bogle
🎯 52' ↓ 90+4'
M
18
A. Stach
⚽ 8' ↓ 72'
M
4
E. Ampadu
🟨 75'
M
22
A. Tanaka
↓ 72'
M
24
J. Justin
M
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
⚽ 56' ↓ 90+4' 🟨 48'
F
19
N. Okafor
⚽ 52' ↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
1
Lucas Perri
G
7
D. James
↑ 90+4'
M
23
S. Bornauw
D
25
S. Byram
D
14
L. Nmecha
↑ 65'
F
8
S. Longstaff
↑ 72'
M
10
J. Piroe
F
11
B. Aaronson
↑ 72'
M
29
W. Gnonto
↑ 90+4'
F
Burnley 5-4-1
Starting XI
1
M. Dubravka
G
2
K. Walker
D
18
H. Ekdal
D
5
M. Esteve
D
12
B. Humphreys
↓ 76' 🟨 35'
D
3
Q. Hartman
↓ 65'
D
17
L. Tchaouna
⚽ 71' 🟨 37'
M
29
J. Laurent
↓ 54'
M
20
J. Ward-Prowse
↓ 65'
M
11
J. Anthony
🎯 71'
M
19
Z. Flemming
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
13
M. Weiss
G
4
J. Worrall
D
27
A. Broja
↑ 76'
F
28
H. Mejbri
↑ 54' 🟨 88'
M
8
L. Ugochukwu
M
23
Lucas Pires
↑ 65'
D
10
M. Edwards
F
16
Florentino
↑ 65'
M
25
Z. Amdouni
↑ 76'
F
Last matches: Leeds
24.05.26
Pre
Leeds
West Ham
0
3
L
17.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Brighton
1
0
W
11.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Tottenham
1
1
D
26.04.26
FA
Leeds
Chelsea
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Bournemouth
2
2
D
18.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Wolves
3
0
W
13.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester United
2
1
W
05.04.26
FA
Leeds
West Ham
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Brentford
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
08.03.26
FA
Leeds
Norwich
3
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Sunderland
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester City
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Aston Villa
1
1
D
15.02.26
FA
Leeds
Birmingham
1
1
D
10.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Chelsea
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Nottingham Forest
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Arsenal
0
4
L
26.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Everton
1
1
D
17.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Fulham
1
0
W
Last matches: Burnley
24.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Wolves
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Arsenal
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Aston Villa
2
2
D
22.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
4
L
11.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Fulham
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Bournemouth
0
0
D
03.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Everton
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Brentford
3
4
L
21.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Chelsea
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Burnley
Mansfield Town
1
2
L
11.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Crystal Palace
3
2
W
07.02.26
Pre
Burnley
West Ham
0
2
L
02.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Sunderland
0
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Tottenham
2
2
D
17.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Liverpool
1
1
D
10.01.26
FA
Burnley
Millwall
5
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Manchester United
2
2
D
03.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
H2H: Leeds vs Burnley
01.05.26
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
W
18.10.25
H2H
Burnley
Leeds
2
0
L
27.01.25
H2H
Burnley
Leeds
0
0
D
14.09.24
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
0
1
L
02.01.22
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
W
29.08.21
H2H
Burnley
Leeds
1
1
D
15.05.21
H2H
Burnley
Leeds
0
4
W
27.12.20
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
0
W
19.09.17
H2H
Burnley
Leeds
4
4
D
09.04.16
H2H
Burnley
Leeds
1
0
L
08.08.15
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
1
D
15.03.14
H2H
Burnley
Leeds
2
1
L
21.09.13
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
2
L
16.04.13
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
0
W
06.11.12
H2H
Burnley
Leeds
1
0
L
Last matches: Leeds
17.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Brighton
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Wolves
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Brentford
0
0
D
08.03.26
FA
Leeds
Norwich
3
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Sunderland
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester City
0
1
L
06.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Nottingham Forest
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Arsenal
0
4
L
17.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Fulham
1
0
W
04.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester United
1
1
D
20.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Crystal Palace
4
1
W
06.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Liverpool
3
3
D
03.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Chelsea
3
1
W
23.11.25
Pre
Leeds
Aston Villa
1
2
L
24.10.25
Pre
Leeds
West Ham
2
1
W
04.10.25
Pre
Leeds
Tottenham
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pre
Leeds
Bournemouth
2
2
D
30.08.25
Pre
Leeds
Newcastle
0
0
D
18.08.25
Pre
Leeds
Everton
1
0
W
H2H at home: Leeds
01.05.26
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
W
14.09.24
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
0
1
L
02.01.22
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
W
27.12.20
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
0
W
08.08.15
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
1
D
21.09.13
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
2
L
16.04.13
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
0
W
Last matches: Burnley
18.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Arsenal
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
4
L
21.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Fulham
1
3
L
03.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Everton
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Chelsea
1
1
D
11.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Crystal Palace
3
2
W
02.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Sunderland
0
3
L
17.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Liverpool
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
20.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Bournemouth
1
1
D
06.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Newcastle
1
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
Burnley
Brentford
1
3
L
08.11.25
Pre
Burnley
West Ham
2
3
L
26.10.25
Pre
Burnley
Wolves
3
2
W
05.10.25
Pre
Burnley
Aston Villa
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pre
Burnley
Manchester City
1
5
L
30.08.25
Pre
Burnley
Manchester United
2
3
L
16.08.25
Pre
Burnley
Tottenham
0
3
L
H2H away: Burnley
01.05.26
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
L
14.09.24
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
0
1
W
02.01.22
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
L
27.12.20
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
0
L
08.08.15
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
1
D
21.09.13
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
2
W
16.04.13
H2H
Leeds
Burnley
1
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14
Leeds Home
38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Leeds 1 missing
-
I. Gruev
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Burnley 3 missing
-
Z. Amdouni
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Cullen
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
H. Mejbri
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT