Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
98.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
62.3%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
84%
|
- |
Burnley
Manchester City
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Burnley
35 matches
Manchester City
46 matches
| Burnley | Statistic | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 29 |
| 8 | Draws | 8 |
| 22 | Losses | 9 |
| 40 | Goals For | 100 |
| 70 | Goals Against | 45 |
| 1.14 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.17 |
| 2 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.98 |
| 21 | BTTS Yes | 23 |
| 31 | Over 1.5 | 42 |
| 19 | Over 2.5 | 29 |
| 14 | Over 3.5 | 13 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 18 |
| 12 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 3.17 | Shots On Goal | 5.8 |
| 9.69 | Total Shots | 15.3 |
| 3.89 | Corners | 6.09 |
| 43.1% | Ball Possession | 60.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Manchester City's more proactive style and Burnley's more cautious structure. Burnley appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Manchester City. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Manchester City. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Manchester City carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 67 points while Burnley sit 19 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Burnley have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.
With 20 points from 33 games and a place of 19, Burnley still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 21 losses, together with goals at 33:63, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Z. Flemming (9 goals), J. Anthony (7 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (5 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (3 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Z. Amdouni, J. Beyer, J. Cullen, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.
Manchester City approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 67 points after 32 outings. The return of 20 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 63:28, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through E. Haaland (23 goals), P. Foden (7 goals), Nico O'Reilly (5 goals), with creative support from R. Cherki (10 assists), E. Haaland (7 assists), M. Nunes (5 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with R. Dias, Rodri unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 0 times, Manchester City won 15 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:52 from Burnley's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.
Burnley
1
9
4
9
4
10
Lineups
Burnley
Wolves
Burnley
Arsenal
Burnley
Aston Villa
Burnley
Leeds
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Brighton
Burnley
Fulham
Burnley
Bournemouth
Burnley
Everton
Burnley
Brentford
Burnley
Chelsea
Burnley
Mansfield Town
Burnley
Crystal Palace
Burnley
West Ham
Burnley
Sunderland
Burnley
Tottenham
Burnley
Liverpool
Burnley
Millwall
Burnley
Manchester United
Burnley
Brighton
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Bournemouth
Manchester City
Chelsea
Manchester City
Crystal Palace
Manchester City
Brentford
Manchester City
Everton
Manchester City
Southampton
Manchester City
Arsenal
Manchester City
Chelsea
Manchester City
Liverpool
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Manchester City
West Ham
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Newcastle
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Leeds
Manchester City
Newcastle
Manchester City
Salford City
Manchester City
Fulham
Manchester City
Liverpool
Burnley
Wolves
Burnley
Aston Villa
Burnley
Brighton
Burnley
Bournemouth
Burnley
Brentford
Burnley
Mansfield Town
Burnley
West Ham
Burnley
Tottenham
Burnley
Millwall
Burnley
Manchester United
Burnley
Newcastle
Burnley
Everton
Burnley
Fulham
Burnley
Crystal Palace
Burnley
Chelsea
Burnley
Arsenal
Burnley
Leeds
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Liverpool
Burnley
Sunderland
Manchester City
Bournemouth
Manchester City
Chelsea
Manchester City
Everton
Manchester City
Chelsea
Manchester City
West Ham
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Newcastle
Manchester City
Leeds
Manchester City
Liverpool
Manchester City
Tottenham
Manchester City
Bodo/Glimt
Manchester City
Manchester United
Manchester City
Sunderland
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Crystal Palace
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Fulham
Manchester City
Newcastle
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Villarreal
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 44 | 85 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 |
Manchester City
Away
|
38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 78 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
| 3 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 19 | 71 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 65 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 10 | 60 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 4 | 57 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | -6 | 54 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 6 | 53 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 3 | 53 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 6 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | -4 | 52 |
W
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | -2 | 49 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | -3 | 49 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | -7 | 47 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | -10 | 45 |
L
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | -3 | 44 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | -9 | 41 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | -19 | 39 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 |
Burnley
Home
|
38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | -37 | 22 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
| 20 | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | -41 | 20 |
D
D
L
D
L
|