ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Turf Moor
Referee: A. Madley
Burnley
Match Timeline
Manchester City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
E. Haaland · Assist: J. Doku
Manchester City
🔄
65'
R. Ait-Nouri ↔ Nico
Manchester City
🔄
65'
A. Semenyo ↔ Savinho
Manchester City
🔄
72'
L. Tchaouna ↔ L. Foster
Burnley
🔄
82'
Z. Flemming ↔ A. Broja
Burnley
🔄
82'
B. Humphreys ↔ Florentino
Burnley
🔄
87'
J. Anthony ↔ M. Tresor Ndayishimiye
Burnley
🔄
87'
J. Laurent ↔ M. Edwards
Burnley

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 98.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 62.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 84%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
98.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
62.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
84%
-
Probability Distribution
Burnley Win 1.9%
Draw 0%
Manchester City Win 98.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley1.08
Manchester City2.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burnley Burnley
WWDLW
40 GF / 70 GA
Manchester City Manchester City
WLDWL
100 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
2.17
2
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
21
BTTS Yes
23
19
Over 2.5
29
3.17
Shots on Goal
5.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Burnley Burnley 35 matches
Manchester City Manchester City 46 matches
Burnley Statistic Manchester City
5 Wins 29
8 Draws 8
22 Losses 9
40 Goals For 100
70 Goals Against 45
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 2.17
2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
21 BTTS Yes 23
31 Over 1.5 42
19 Over 2.5 29
14 Over 3.5 13
4 Clean Sheets 18
12 Failed To Score 6
3.17 Shots On Goal 5.8
9.69 Total Shots 15.3
3.89 Corners 6.09
43.1% Ball Possession 60.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Manchester City's more proactive style and Burnley's more cautious structure. Burnley appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Manchester City. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Manchester City. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Manchester City carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 67 points while Burnley sit 19 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Burnley have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Burnley Analysis

With 20 points from 33 games and a place of 19, Burnley still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 21 losses, together with goals at 33:63, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Z. Flemming (9 goals), J. Anthony (7 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (5 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (3 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Z. Amdouni, J. Beyer, J. Cullen, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

Manchester City Analysis

Manchester City approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 67 points after 32 outings. The return of 20 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 63:28, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through E. Haaland (23 goals), P. Foden (7 goals), Nico O'Reilly (5 goals), with creative support from R. Cherki (10 assists), E. Haaland (7 assists), M. Nunes (5 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with R. Dias, Rodri unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 0 times, Manchester City won 15 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:52 from Burnley's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Burnley 4-2-3-1 / Manchester City 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Burnley 5, Manchester City 3
H2H summary: Burnley wins 0, draws 0, Manchester City wins 15
Stats
Burnley Burnley
Manchester City Manchester City
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
9
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
10
3 Corner Kicks 11
10 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 1
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 28
1 Shots on Goal 9
4 Shots off Goal 9
4 Blocked Shots 10
6 Shots insidebox 19
3 Shots outsidebox 9
8 Goalkeeper Saves 1
356 Total passes 689
281 Passes accurate 620
0.63 expected_goals 3.36
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Burnley
Formation
Manchester City
M. Dubravka
M. Dubravka
K. Walker
K. Walker
B. Humphreys
B. Humphreys
H. Ekdal
H. Ekdal
M. Esteve
M. Esteve
Q. Hartman
Q. Hartman
L. Tchaouna
L. Tchaouna
J. Ward-Prowse
J. Ward-Prowse
J. Laurent
J. Laurent
J. Anthony
J. Anthony
Z. Flemming
Z. Flemming
G. Donnarumma
G. Donnarumma
M. Nunes
M. Nunes
A. Khusanov
A. Khusanov
M. Guehi
M. Guehi
R. Ait-Nouri
R. Ait-Nouri
B. Silva
B. Silva
N. O'Reilly
N. O'Reilly
A. Semenyo
A. Semenyo
R. Cherki
R. Cherki
J. Doku
🎯
J. Doku
E. Haaland
E. Haaland
Burnley 5-4-1
Starting XI
1
M. Dubravka
G
2
K. Walker
D
12
B. Humphreys
↓ 82'
D
18
H. Ekdal
D
5
M. Esteve
D
3
Q. Hartman
D
17
L. Tchaouna
↓ 72'
M
20
J. Ward-Prowse
M
29
J. Laurent
↓ 87'
M
11
J. Anthony
↓ 87'
M
19
Z. Flemming
↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
13
M. Weiss
G
31
M. Tresor Ndayishimiye
↑ 87'
F
4
J. Worrall
D
27
A. Broja
↑ 82'
F
8
L. Ugochukwu
M
23
Lucas Pires
D
10
M. Edwards
↑ 87'
F
16
Florentino
↑ 82'
M
9
L. Foster
↑ 72'
F
Manchester City 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
G. Donnarumma
G
27
M. Nunes
D
45
A. Khusanov
D
15
M. Guehi
D
21
R. Ait-Nouri
↓ 65'
D
20
B. Silva
M
33
N. O'Reilly
M
42
A. Semenyo
↓ 65'
M
10
R. Cherki
M
11
J. Doku
🎯 5'
M
9
E. Haaland
⚽ 5'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Trafford
G
4
T. Reijnders
M
8
M. Kovacic
M
5
J. Stones
D
6
N. Ake
D
47
P. Foden
M
7
O. Marmoush
F
14
Nico
↑ 65'
M
26
Savinho
↑ 65'
F
Last matches: Burnley
24.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Wolves
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Arsenal
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Aston Villa
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Leeds
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
4
L
11.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Fulham
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Bournemouth
0
0
D
03.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Everton
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Brentford
3
4
L
21.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Chelsea
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Burnley
Mansfield Town
1
2
L
11.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Crystal Palace
3
2
W
07.02.26
Pre
Burnley
West Ham
0
2
L
02.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Sunderland
0
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Tottenham
2
2
D
17.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Liverpool
1
1
D
10.01.26
FA
Burnley
Millwall
5
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Manchester United
2
2
D
03.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
Last matches: Manchester City
24.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Aston Villa
1
2
L
19.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Bournemouth
1
1
D
16.05.26
FA
Manchester City
Chelsea
1
0
W
13.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Crystal Palace
3
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Brentford
3
0
W
04.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Everton
3
3
D
25.04.26
FA
Manchester City
Southampton
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pre
Manchester City
Arsenal
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pre
Manchester City
Chelsea
3
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Manchester City
Liverpool
4
0
W
17.03.26
UEF
Manchester City
Real Madrid
1
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Manchester City
West Ham
1
1
D
11.03.26
UEF
Manchester City
Real Madrid
0
3
L
07.03.26
FA
Manchester City
Newcastle
3
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Leeds
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Newcastle
2
1
W
14.02.26
FA
Manchester City
Salford City
2
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Fulham
3
0
W
08.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Liverpool
2
1
W
H2H: Burnley vs Manchester City
22.04.26
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
L
27.09.25
H2H
Manchester City
Burnley
5
1
L
31.01.24
H2H
Manchester City
Burnley
3
1
L
11.08.23
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
3
L
18.03.23
H2H
Manchester City
Burnley
6
0
L
02.04.22
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
2
L
16.10.21
H2H
Manchester City
Burnley
2
0
L
03.02.21
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
2
L
28.11.20
H2H
Manchester City
Burnley
5
0
L
30.09.20
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
3
L
22.06.20
H2H
Manchester City
Burnley
5
0
L
03.12.19
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
1
4
L
28.04.19
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
L
26.01.19
H2H
Manchester City
Burnley
5
0
L
20.10.18
H2H
Manchester City
Burnley
5
0
L
Last matches: Burnley
24.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Wolves
1
1
D
10.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Aston Villa
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Bournemouth
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Brentford
3
4
L
14.02.26
FA
Burnley
Mansfield Town
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pre
Burnley
West Ham
0
2
L
24.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Tottenham
2
2
D
10.01.26
FA
Burnley
Millwall
5
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Manchester United
2
2
D
30.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Newcastle
1
3
L
27.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Everton
0
0
D
13.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Fulham
2
3
L
03.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
22.11.25
Pre
Burnley
Chelsea
0
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
Burnley
Arsenal
0
2
L
18.10.25
Pre
Burnley
Leeds
2
0
W
20.09.25
Pre
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
14.09.25
Pre
Burnley
Liverpool
0
1
L
23.08.25
Pre
Burnley
Sunderland
2
0
W
H2H at home: Burnley
22.04.26
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
L
11.08.23
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
3
L
02.04.22
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
2
L
03.02.21
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
2
L
30.09.20
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
3
L
03.12.19
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
1
4
L
28.04.19
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
L
Last matches: Manchester City
19.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Bournemouth
1
1
D
16.05.26
FA
Manchester City
Chelsea
1
0
W
04.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Everton
3
3
D
12.04.26
Pre
Manchester City
Chelsea
3
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Manchester City
West Ham
1
1
D
11.03.26
UEF
Manchester City
Real Madrid
0
3
L
07.03.26
FA
Manchester City
Newcastle
3
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Leeds
1
0
W
08.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Liverpool
2
1
W
01.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Tottenham
2
2
D
20.01.26
UEF
Manchester City
Bodo/Glimt
1
3
L
17.01.26
Pre
Manchester City
Manchester United
0
2
L
01.01.26
Pre
Manchester City
Sunderland
0
0
D
27.12.25
Pre
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
2
1
W
14.12.25
Pre
Manchester City
Crystal Palace
3
0
W
10.12.25
UEF
Manchester City
Real Madrid
2
1
W
02.12.25
Pre
Manchester City
Fulham
5
4
W
22.11.25
Pre
Manchester City
Newcastle
1
2
L
26.10.25
Pre
Manchester City
Aston Villa
0
1
L
21.10.25
UEF
Manchester City
Villarreal
2
0
W
H2H away: Manchester City
22.04.26
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
W
11.08.23
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
3
W
02.04.22
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
2
W
03.02.21
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
2
W
30.09.20
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
3
W
03.12.19
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
1
4
W
28.04.19
H2H
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Burnley 5 missing
-
Z. Amdouni
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Beyer
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
J. Cullen
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
C. Roberts
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
H. Mejbri
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
Manchester City 3 missing
-
J. Gvardiol
Missing Fixture Broken Leg
OUT
-
R. Dias
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Rodri
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT