Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
85.6%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
34.3%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
29.3%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | 2-2 |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Atletico Madrid
53 matches
Arsenal
50 matches
| Atletico Madrid | Statistic | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wins | 35 |
| 9 | Draws | 9 |
| 15 | Losses | 6 |
| 105 | Goals For | 102 |
| 70 | Goals Against | 35 |
| 1.98 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.04 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.7 |
| 32 | BTTS Yes | 24 |
| 44 | Over 1.5 | 39 |
| 34 | Over 2.5 | 28 |
| 22 | Over 3.5 | 15 |
| 16 | Clean Sheets | 25 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 5.34 | Shots On Goal | 5.4 |
| 13.28 | Total Shots | 14.96 |
| 5.89 | Corners | 6.04 |
| 52.2% | Ball Possession | 56% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Arsenal have the edge after taking the first leg 4-0, leaving Atletico Madrid needing to respond to a 4-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Arsenal controlled more possession in the first leg (52% against 48%). Arsenal carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 8 shots on goal compared to 1. Arsenal circulated the ball more often, making 421 passes to 394 and completing 378. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Arsenal. Arsenal carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 24 points while Atletico Madrid sit 14 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Arsenal look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Madrid expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Arsenal in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Arsenal having the stronger overall control.
Atletico Madrid enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 8 matches, placing them 14 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 17:15 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on J. Alvarez (9 goals), A. Sorloth (6 goals), M. Llorente (5 goals), with creative support from A. Griezmann (5 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Matteo Ruggeri (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with P. Barrios, J. M. Gimenez, N. Gonzalez unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Ahead of this knockout test, Arsenal arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 24 points after 8 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 23:4 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking weight falls on G. Martinelli (6 goals), V. Gyokeres (4 goals), K. Havertz (3 goals), with creative support from L. Trossard (4 assists), G. Martinelli (2 assists), V. Gyokeres (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. Although they are without M. Merino, J. Timber, K. Havertz, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.
Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Madrid won 1 times, Arsenal won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:8 from Atletico Madrid's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
Atletico Madrid
4
2
8
4
6
5
Lineups
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
Girona
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
Atletico Madrid
Celta Vigo
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid
Elche
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
Atletico Madrid
Getafe
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Oviedo
Arsenal
Paris Saint Germain
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
Arsenal
Burnley
Arsenal
West Ham
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
Fulham
Arsenal
Newcastle
Arsenal
Manchester City
Arsenal
Sporting CP
Arsenal
Bournemouth
Arsenal
Sporting CP
Arsenal
Southampton
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
Arsenal
Everton
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
Arsenal
Mansfield Town
Arsenal
Brighton
Arsenal
Chelsea
Arsenal
Tottenham
Arsenal
Wolves
Atletico Madrid
Girona
Atletico Madrid
Celta Vigo
Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Getafe
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Club Brugge KV
Atletico Madrid
Espanyol
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
Atletico Madrid
Bodo/Glimt
Atletico Madrid
Mallorca
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
Atletico Madrid
Oviedo
Atletico Madrid
Inter
Atletico Madrid
Levante
Arsenal
Paris Saint Germain
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
Arsenal
West Ham
Arsenal
Manchester City
Arsenal
Sporting CP
Arsenal
Southampton
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
Arsenal
Mansfield Town
Arsenal
Brighton
Arsenal
Tottenham
Arsenal
Wolves
Arsenal
Brentford
Arsenal
Leeds
Arsenal
Inter
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
Portsmouth
Arsenal
Bournemouth
Arsenal
Everton
Arsenal
Club Brugge KV
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
Away
|
8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:4 | 19 | 24 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
| 2 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22:8 | 14 | 21 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:8 | 12 | 18 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 10 | 17 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:14 | 8 | 16 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 7 | 16 |
W
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 16 |
W
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 6 | 16 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | 9 | 15 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:7 | 8 | 15 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:11 | 10 | 14 |
D
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 10 | 14 |
D
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:10 | 4 | 13 |
D
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 14 |
Atletico Madrid
Home
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 2 | 13 |
L
D
W
W
W
|
| 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 13 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 16 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | -1 | 12 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 17 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19:17 | 2 | 11 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | -4 | 11 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15:17 | -2 | 10 |
W
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 10 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 21 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:14 | -6 | 10 |
D
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 22 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:21 | -8 | 10 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 23 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:15 | -1 | 9 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:12 | -2 | 9 |
W
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 25 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11:14 | -3 | 9 |
L
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 26 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 9 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 27 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | -9 | 9 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 28 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 0 | 8 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 29 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 8 |
L
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 30 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 |
L
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 31 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:21 | -9 | 8 |
L
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 6 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 33 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:21 | -11 | 4 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 34 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:19 | -14 | 3 |
L
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:18 | -13 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 36 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | -15 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
L
|