ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Emirates Stadium
Referee: P. Tierney
Arsenal
Match Timeline
Burnley
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Hannibal Mejbri
Burnley
37'
K. Havertz · Assist: B. Saka
Arsenal
🟨
67'
Kai Havertz
Arsenal
🔄
70'
H. Mejbri ↔ Z. Amdouni
Burnley
🔄
71'
L. Ugochukwu ↔ J. Laurent
Burnley
🔄
72'
R. Calafiori ↔ P. Hincapie
Arsenal
🔄
73'
K. Havertz ↔ V. Gyökeres
Arsenal
🔄
73'
E. Eze ↔ M. Lewis-Skelly
Arsenal
🔄
78'
Florentino ↔ J. Ward-Prowse
Burnley
🔄
82'
L. Tchaouna ↔ J. Bruun Larsen
Burnley
🔄
82'
M. Esteve ↔ B. Humphreys
Burnley
🟨
90+4'
Lucas Pires
Burnley
🟨
90+1'
Zian Flemming
Burnley
🔄
90+3'
L. Trossard ↔ G. Martinelli
Arsenal
🔄
90+3'
M. Odegaard ↔ M. Zubimendi
Arsenal

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 47.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 40.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
47.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
40.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Arsenal Win 100%
Draw 0%
Burnley Win 3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arsenal2
Burnley0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arsenal Arsenal
WWDLW
108 GF / 36 GA
Burnley Burnley
WLDWL
43 GF / 76 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.13
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
2
25
BTTS Yes
23
29
Over 2.5
21
5.31
Shots on Goal
3.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arsenal Arsenal 54 matches
Burnley Burnley 38 matches
Arsenal Statistic Burnley
38 Wins 5
10 Draws 9
6 Losses 24
108 Goals For 43
36 Goals Against 76
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 2
25 BTTS Yes 23
41 Over 1.5 33
29 Over 2.5 21
15 Over 3.5 16
28 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 13
5.31 Shots On Goal 3.18
14.91 Total Shots 9.79
5.81 Corners 3.71
55.9% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Arsenal's more proactive style and Burnley's more cautious structure. Arsenal appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Burnley. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Burnley. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Burnley arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Arsenal arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 79 points compared to Burnley in 19 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Arsenal Analysis

Arsenal come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 79 points after 36 matches. The return of 24 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 68:26, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through V. Gyokeres (14 goals), B. Saka (7 goals), E. Eze (7 goals), with creative support from L. Trossard (6 assists), D. Rice (6 assists), M. Odegaard (6 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 14 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Merino, J. Timber, R. Calafiori unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Burnley Analysis

With 21 points from 36 games and a place of 19, Burnley still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 23 defeats, and the 37:73 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Z. Flemming (10 goals), J. Anthony (8 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (5 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (4 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without J. Beyer, J. Cullen, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Arsenal won 11 times, Burnley won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:7 from Arsenal's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Arsenal 4-2-3-1 / Burnley 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Arsenal 4, Burnley 2
H2H summary: Arsenal wins 11, draws 3, Burnley wins 1
Stats
Arsenal Arsenal
Burnley Burnley
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
0
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
3 Corner Kicks 3
7 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Goal 0
7 Shots off Goal 4
3 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 2
4 Shots outsidebox 3
0 Goalkeeper Saves 2
513 Total passes 336
444 Passes accurate 266
1.29 expected_goals 0.19
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Arsenal
Formation
Burnley
D. Raya
D. Raya
C. Mosquera
C. Mosquera
W. Saliba
W. Saliba
Gabriel
Gabriel
R. Calafiori
R. Calafiori
M. Odegaard
M. Odegaard
D. Rice
D. Rice
E. Eze
E. Eze
B. Saka
🎯
B. Saka
K. Havertz
K. Havertz
L. Trossard
L. Trossard
M. Weiss
M. Weiss
K. Walker
K. Walker
A. Tuanzebe
A. Tuanzebe
M. Esteve
M. Esteve
Lucas Pires
Lucas Pires
Florentino
Florentino
L. Ugochukwu
L. Ugochukwu
L. Tchaouna
L. Tchaouna
H. Mejbri
H. Mejbri
J. Anthony
J. Anthony
Z. Flemming
Z. Flemming
Arsenal 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
D. Raya
G
3
C. Mosquera
D
2
W. Saliba
D
6
Gabriel
D
33
R. Calafiori
↓ 72'
D
8
M. Odegaard
↓ 90+3'
M
41
D. Rice
M
10
E. Eze
↓ 73'
M
7
B. Saka
🎯 37'
F
29
K. Havertz
⚽ 37' ↓ 73' 🟨 67'
F
19
L. Trossard
↓ 90+3'
F
Substitutes
13
K. Arrizabalaga
G
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
14
V. Gyökeres
↑ 73'
F
20
N. Madueke
F
11
G. Martinelli
↑ 90+3'
F
5
P. Hincapie
↑ 72'
D
36
M. Zubimendi
↑ 90+3'
M
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
↑ 73'
D
56
M. Dowman
M
Burnley 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
M. Weiss
G
2
K. Walker
D
6
A. Tuanzebe
D
5
M. Esteve
↓ 82'
D
23
Lucas Pires
🟨 90+4'
D
16
Florentino
↓ 78'
M
8
L. Ugochukwu
↓ 71'
M
17
L. Tchaouna
↓ 82'
M
28
H. Mejbri
↓ 70' 🟨 28'
M
11
J. Anthony
M
19
Z. Flemming
🟨 90+1'
F
Substitutes
1
M. Dubravka
G
4
J. Worrall
D
3
Q. Hartman
D
20
J. Ward-Prowse
↑ 78'
M
29
J. Laurent
↑ 71'
M
7
J. Bruun Larsen
↑ 82'
F
10
M. Edwards
F
12
B. Humphreys
↑ 82'
D
25
Z. Amdouni
↑ 70'
F
Last matches: Arsenal
30.05.26
UEF
Arsenal
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
10.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
West Ham
1
0
W
05.05.26
UEF
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Fulham
3
0
W
29.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Newcastle
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
2
L
15.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Bournemouth
1
2
L
07.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
1
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Arsenal
Southampton
1
2
L
17.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Everton
2
0
W
11.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
07.03.26
FA
Arsenal
Mansfield Town
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Brighton
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Chelsea
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Tottenham
4
1
W
18.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Wolves
2
2
D
Last matches: Burnley
24.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Wolves
1
1
D
10.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Aston Villa
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Leeds
1
3
L
22.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
4
L
11.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Fulham
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Bournemouth
0
0
D
03.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Everton
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Brentford
3
4
L
21.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Chelsea
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Burnley
Mansfield Town
1
2
L
11.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Crystal Palace
3
2
W
07.02.26
Pre
Burnley
West Ham
0
2
L
02.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Sunderland
0
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Tottenham
2
2
D
17.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Liverpool
1
1
D
10.01.26
FA
Burnley
Millwall
5
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Manchester United
2
2
D
03.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
H2H: Arsenal vs Burnley
18.05.26
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
1
0
W
01.11.25
H2H
Burnley
Arsenal
0
2
W
17.02.24
H2H
Burnley
Arsenal
0
5
W
11.11.23
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
3
1
W
23.01.22
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
0
0
D
18.09.21
H2H
Burnley
Arsenal
0
1
W
06.03.21
H2H
Burnley
Arsenal
1
1
D
13.12.20
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
0
1
L
02.02.20
H2H
Burnley
Arsenal
0
0
D
17.08.19
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
2
1
W
12.05.19
H2H
Burnley
Arsenal
1
3
W
22.12.18
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
3
1
W
06.05.18
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
5
0
W
26.11.17
H2H
Burnley
Arsenal
0
1
W
22.01.17
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
2
1
W
Last matches: Arsenal
05.05.26
UEF
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Fulham
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Newcastle
1
0
W
15.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Bournemouth
1
2
L
17.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Everton
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Chelsea
2
1
W
15.02.26
FA
Arsenal
Wigan
4
0
W
07.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Sunderland
3
0
W
28.01.26
UEF
Arsenal
Kairat Almaty
3
2
W
25.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Manchester United
2
3
L
08.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Liverpool
0
0
D
30.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Aston Villa
4
1
W
27.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Brighton
2
1
W
13.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Wolves
2
1
W
03.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Brentford
2
0
W
26.11.25
UEF
Arsenal
Bayern München
3
1
W
23.11.25
Pre
Arsenal
Tottenham
4
1
W
26.10.25
Pre
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
1
0
W
H2H at home: Arsenal
18.05.26
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
1
0
W
11.11.23
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
3
1
W
23.01.22
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
0
0
D
13.12.20
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
0
1
L
17.08.19
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
2
1
W
22.12.18
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
3
1
W
06.05.18
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
5
0
W
22.01.17
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
2
1
W
Last matches: Burnley
01.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Leeds
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
4
L
21.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Fulham
1
3
L
03.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Everton
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Chelsea
1
1
D
11.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Crystal Palace
3
2
W
02.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Sunderland
0
3
L
17.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Liverpool
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
20.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Bournemouth
1
1
D
06.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Newcastle
1
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
Burnley
Brentford
1
3
L
08.11.25
Pre
Burnley
West Ham
2
3
L
26.10.25
Pre
Burnley
Wolves
3
2
W
05.10.25
Pre
Burnley
Aston Villa
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pre
Burnley
Manchester City
1
5
L
30.08.25
Pre
Burnley
Manchester United
2
3
L
16.08.25
Pre
Burnley
Tottenham
0
3
L
H2H away: Burnley
18.05.26
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
1
0
L
11.11.23
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
3
1
L
23.01.22
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
0
0
D
13.12.20
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
0
1
W
17.08.19
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
2
1
L
22.12.18
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
3
1
L
06.05.18
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
5
0
L
22.01.17
H2H
Arsenal
Burnley
2
1
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L

Missing Players

Arsenal 4 missing
-
M. Merino
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
J. Timber
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
R. Calafiori
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
B. White
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Burnley 2 missing
-
J. Beyer
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
J. Cullen
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT