ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO
--.--.---- --:--
Alexandra Stadium
Referee: Z. Kennard-Kettle
Crewe
Match Timeline
Milton Keynes Dons
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
C. Nelson · Assist: L. Kelly
Milton Keynes Dons
45'
M. Ekpiteta · Assist: N. Mendez-Laing
Milton Keynes Dons
🔄
46'
C. Agius ↔ A. Pond
Crewe
🔄
46'
T. O'Reilly ↔ A. Thibaut
Crewe
🟨
59'
Max Sanders
Crewe
🟨
60'
Alex Gilbey
Milton Keynes Dons
🔄
66'
N. Mendez-Laing ↔ C. Lemonheigh-Evans
Milton Keynes Dons
66'
A. Gilbey · Assist: M. Ekpiteta
Milton Keynes Dons
🔄
74'
M. H. Sanders ↔ C. Thomas
Crewe
🔄
74'
M. Holicek ↔ J. Powell
Crewe
75'
A. Thibaut · Assist: J. Powell
Crewe
🔄
84'
L. Kelly ↔ R. Hepburn-Murphy
Milton Keynes Dons

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Crewe Win 28.6%
Draw 13.1%
Milton Keynes Dons Win 58.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Crewe1.28
Milton Keynes Dons1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Crewe Crewe
WWDLW
64 GF / 55 GA
Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons
WLDWL
86 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.87
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
26
BTTS Yes
29
24
Over 2.5
25
3.84
Shots on Goal
4.51

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Crewe Crewe 44 matches
Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 46 matches
Crewe Statistic Milton Keynes Dons
19 Wins 24
9 Draws 14
16 Losses 8
64 Goals For 86
55 Goals Against 47
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.87
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
26 BTTS Yes 29
32 Over 1.5 36
24 Over 2.5 25
13 Over 3.5 18
8 Clean Sheets 14
11 Failed To Score 6
3.84 Shots On Goal 4.51
12 Total Shots 11.84
4.93 Corners 4.44
49.1% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Milton Keynes Dons. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Milton Keynes Dons carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 79 points while Crewe sit 10 on 66, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Crewe expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Milton Keynes Dons in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Milton Keynes Dons having the stronger overall control.

Crewe Analysis

Crewe are currently 10 in the standings with 66 points from 43 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 19 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, while the 63:53 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. March (11 goals), E. Tezgel (10 goals), Tommi O'Reilly (7 goals), with creative support from Tommi O'Reilly (11 assists), J. March (5 assists), R. Hutchinson (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Milton Keynes Dons Analysis

Milton Keynes Dons arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 79 points after 43 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 22 wins, 13 draws, and 8 losses, while the 79:43 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Paterson (14 goals), A. Gilbey (10 goals), Nathaniel Méndez-Laing (8 goals), with creative support from C. Paterson (8 assists), L. Kelly (7 assists), A. Gilbey (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 10 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Crewe won 5 times, Milton Keynes Dons won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:29 from Crewe's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.9%)
Predicted formations: Crewe 4-2-3-1 / Milton Keynes Dons 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Crewe wins 5, draws 2, Milton Keynes Dons wins 8
Stats
Crewe Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
4
3 Corner Kicks 6
8 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 0
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Goal 6
3 Shots off Goal 7
1 Blocked Shots 4
4 Shots insidebox 10
4 Shots outsidebox 7
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
498 Total passes 313
390 Passes accurate 221
0.66 expected_goals 1.32
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Crewe
Formation
Milton Keynes Dons
I. Lawlor
I. Lawlor
L. Billington
L. Billington
J. Connolly
J. Connolly
M. Demetriou
M. Demetriou
R. Hutchinson
R. Hutchinson
M. Holicek
M. Holicek
M. H. Sanders
M. H. Sanders
J. March
J. March
T. O'Reilly
T. O'Reilly
C. Agius
C. Agius
E. Tezgel
E. Tezgel
C. MacGillivray
C. MacGillivray
M. Ekpiteta
🎯
M. Ekpiteta
C. Nelson
C. Nelson
J. Sanders
J. Sanders
L. Kelly
🎯
L. Kelly
G. Jones
G. Jones
B. Wiles
B. Wiles
A. Gilbey
A. Gilbey
J. Tomlinson
J. Tomlinson
C. Paterson
C. Paterson
N. Mendez-Laing
🎯
N. Mendez-Laing
Crewe 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
41
I. Lawlor
G
2
L. Billington
D
18
J. Connolly
D
5
M. Demetriou
D
3
R. Hutchinson
D
17
M. Holicek
↓ 74'
M
6
M. H. Sanders
↓ 74' 🟨 59'
M
24
J. March
M
26
T. O'Reilly
↓ 46'
M
20
C. Agius
↓ 46'
M
36
E. Tezgel
F
Substitutes
1
T. Booth
G
10
S. Tracey
F
25
A. Pond
↑ 46'
D
14
C. Finney
D
8
C. Thomas
↑ 74'
M
23
J. Powell
🎯 75' ↑ 74'
M
29
A. Thibaut
⚽ 75' ↑ 46'
F
Milton Keynes Dons 3-1-4-2
Starting XI
1
C. MacGillivray
G
21
M. Ekpiteta
⚽ 45' 🎯 66'
D
25
C. Nelson
⚽ 12'
D
32
J. Sanders
D
6
L. Kelly
🎯 12' ↓ 84'
M
2
G. Jones
M
26
B. Wiles
M
8
A. Gilbey
⚽ 66' 🟨 60'
M
14
J. Tomlinson
M
13
C. Paterson
F
11
N. Mendez-Laing
🎯 45' ↓ 66'
F
Substitutes
27
C. Trueman
G
7
D. Crowley
M
10
A. Collins
F
16
A. Nemane
F
24
C. Lemonheigh-Evans
↑ 66'
M
9
S. Hogan
F
29
R. Hepburn-Murphy
↑ 84'
F
Last matches: Crewe
21.07.26
Fri
Crewe
AFC Telford United
3
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Crewe
Stoke City
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Crewe
Witton Albion
3
2
W
02.05.26
Lea
Crewe
Cambridge United
0
0
D
25.04.26
Lea
Crewe
Chesterfield
0
2
L
11.04.26
Lea
Crewe
Grimsby
2
3
L
06.04.26
Lea
Crewe
Salford City
1
0
W
03.04.26
Lea
Crewe
Accrington ST
0
2
L
28.03.26
Lea
Crewe
Oldham
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lea
Crewe
Shrewsbury
4
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Crewe
Cheltenham
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lea
Crewe
Walsall
0
3
L
07.03.26
Lea
Crewe
Bristol Rovers
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Crewe
Tranmere
2
1
W
21.02.26
Lea
Crewe
Swindon Town
2
1
W
17.02.26
Lea
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lea
Crewe
Gillingham
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Crewe
Crawley Town
1
0
W
03.02.26
Lea
Crewe
Barnet
1
1
D
31.01.26
Lea
Crewe
Colchester
1
0
W
Last matches: Milton Keynes Dons
22.07.26
Fri
Milton Keynes Dons
Tottenham
0
1
L
17.07.26
Fri
Milton Keynes Dons
Istra 1961
1
2
L
10.07.26
Fri
Milton Keynes Dons
Maidenhead
4
1
W
02.05.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Fleetwood Town
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
3
0
W
11.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Bromley
2
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Oldham
1
1
D
03.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Barrow
0
0
D
28.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford City
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Barnet
1
3
L
18.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Colchester
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town
2
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Gillingham
5
1
W
07.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Harrogate Town
4
1
W
28.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Cambridge United
1
1
D
23.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Walsall
2
0
W
17.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Crawley Town
0
0
D
14.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Newport County
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Cheltenham
3
2
W
31.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Grimsby
2
2
D
H2H: Crewe vs Milton Keynes Dons
18.04.26
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
1
3
L
18.10.25
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
3
1
L
21.04.25
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
0
1
L
29.12.24
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
1
1
D
16.03.24
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
3
1
L
02.09.23
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
3
1
W
05.04.22
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
2
1
L
30.10.21
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
1
4
L
05.04.21
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
0
2
W
26.09.20
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
2
0
W
19.01.19
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
0
1
W
18.08.18
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
0
0
D
31.01.15
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
0
5
L
20.09.14
H2H
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
6
1
L
21.01.14
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
2
0
W
Last matches: Crewe
18.07.26
Fri
Crewe
Stoke City
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lea
Crewe
Cambridge United
0
0
D
06.04.26
Lea
Crewe
Salford City
1
0
W
28.03.26
Lea
Crewe
Oldham
2
1
W
14.03.26
Lea
Crewe
Walsall
0
3
L
28.02.26
Lea
Crewe
Tranmere
2
1
W
17.02.26
Lea
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lea
Crewe
Gillingham
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Crewe
Colchester
1
0
W
17.01.26
Lea
Crewe
Barrow
3
1
W
10.01.26
Lea
Crewe
Harrogate Town
1
1
D
01.01.26
Lea
Crewe
Cheltenham
4
1
W
19.12.25
Lea
Crewe
Bristol Rovers
1
1
D
10.12.25
Lea
Crewe
Newport County
2
2
D
22.11.25
Lea
Crewe
Chesterfield
3
3
D
08.11.25
Lea
Crewe
Shrewsbury
3
1
W
01.11.25
FA
Crewe
Doncaster
1
2
L
25.10.25
Lea
Crewe
Grimsby
3
2
W
11.10.25
Lea
Crewe
Bromley
0
1
L
27.09.25
Lea
Crewe
Notts County
2
1
W
H2H at home: Crewe
18.04.26
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
1
3
L
21.04.25
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
0
1
L
02.09.23
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
3
1
W
30.10.21
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
1
4
L
26.09.20
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
2
0
W
18.08.18
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
0
0
D
31.01.15
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
0
5
L
21.01.14
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
2
0
W
Last matches: Milton Keynes Dons
22.07.26
Fri
Milton Keynes Dons
Tottenham
0
1
L
17.07.26
Fri
Milton Keynes Dons
Istra 1961
1
2
L
10.07.26
Fri
Milton Keynes Dons
Maidenhead
4
1
W
02.05.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Fleetwood Town
1
1
D
06.04.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Oldham
1
1
D
28.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford City
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town
2
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Gillingham
5
1
W
28.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Cambridge United
1
1
D
23.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Walsall
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Cheltenham
3
2
W
31.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Grimsby
2
2
D
17.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Accrington ST
2
0
W
01.01.26
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Colchester
0
1
L
20.12.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Harrogate Town
4
0
W
09.12.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Notts County
2
3
L
22.11.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
2
2
D
08.11.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Barnet
2
2
D
01.11.25
FA
Milton Keynes Dons
Colchester
3
2
W
25.10.25
Lea
Milton Keynes Dons
Bromley
1
2
L
H2H away: Milton Keynes Dons
18.04.26
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
1
3
W
21.04.25
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
0
1
W
02.09.23
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
3
1
L
30.10.21
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
1
4
W
26.09.20
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
2
0
L
18.08.18
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
0
0
D
31.01.15
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
0
5
W
21.01.14
H2H
Crewe
Milton Keynes Dons
2
0
L

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 24 15 7 71:46 25 87
W L D L W
2 46 24 14 8 86:45 41 86
D W W W D
3 46 22 16 8 66:33 33 82
D W L D W
4 46 25 6 15 61:51 10 81
L D W D W
5 46 24 8 14 74:52 22 80
W D W D W
6 46 21 16 9 71:56 15 79
D L W W D
7 46 22 12 12 74:50 24 78
D L D W W
8 46 21 13 12 70:53 17 76
W W W W W
9 46 22 9 15 70:59 11 75
L L D L W
10 46 18 14 14 60:44 16 68
W L L L L
11
Crewe Home
46 19 10 17 64:58 6 67
D L L L W
12 46 18 12 16 62:49 13 66
W L L W W
13 46 18 11 17 56:56 0 65
L L W L L
14 46 19 5 22 56:65 -9 62
D W W W W
15 46 15 16 15 57:58 -1 61
D D D W L
16 46 14 11 21 47:58 -11 53
L D D L L
17 46 13 14 19 53:72 -19 53
W L L L D
18 46 14 10 22 53:79 -26 52
L L L W W
19 46 13 10 23 42:69 -27 49
L D D W L
20 46 12 7 27 48:77 -29 43
W W L W L
21 46 10 11 25 54:79 -25 41
D L W L D
22 46 8 16 22 44:68 -24 40
D D D L L
23 46 10 9 27 39:68 -29 39
L W W L L
24 46 9 9 28 45:78 -33 36
L L L W L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation