Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
64.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
84%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
73.7%
|
- |
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Werder Bremen
29 matches
Hamburger SV
29 matches
| Werder Bremen | Statistic | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 7 |
| 7 | Draws | 10 |
| 15 | Losses | 12 |
| 32 | Goals For | 32 |
| 52 | Goals Against | 45 |
| 1.1 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.1 |
| 1.79 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.55 |
| 13 | BTTS Yes | 17 |
| 23 | Over 1.5 | 22 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 10 | Over 3.5 | 9 |
| 6 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 11 | Failed To Score | 10 |
| 4.07 | Shots On Goal | 4.59 |
| 13.14 | Total Shots | 12.17 |
| 4.48 | Corners | 3.76 |
| 51.9% | Ball Possession | 46% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Werder Bremen appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Hamburger SV. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Werder Bremen expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Hamburger SV in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Hamburger SV having the stronger overall control. Werder Bremen have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Hamburger SV.
Werder Bremen sit 15 with 28 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 32:52 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Stage (7 goals), J. Njinmah (5 goals), J. Milosevic (3 goals), with creative support from R. Schmid (7 assists), Y. Sugawara (4 assists), J. Stage (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with W. Adeh, V. Boniface, K. Hein, M. Friedl unavailable.
Hamburger SV sit 13 with 31 points after 29 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 32:45 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. S. Lokonga (5 goals), F. Vieira (5 goals), L. Vuskovic (5 goals), with creative support from F. Vieira (5 assists), Miro Muheim (4 assists), W. Mikelbrencis (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Y. Poulsen, A. Rossing-Lelesiit, J. Dompe unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Werder Bremen won 7 times, Hamburger SV won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Werder Bremen's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.
Werder Bremen
10
3
6
5
2
3
Lineups
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
1. FC Heidenheim
Werder Bremen
FC St. Pauli
Werder Bremen
Bayern München
Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Bayer Leverkusen
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
FC St. Pauli
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV
VfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
Hamburger SV
Bayern München
Hamburger SV
FC St. Pauli
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
1. FC Heidenheim
Werder Bremen
Bayern München
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
FC St. Pauli
Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
VfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
Hamburger SV
FC St. Pauli
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
Bayern München
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
Hamburger SV
FC Schalke 04
Hamburger SV
1. FC Nürnberg
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 122:36 | 86 | 89 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70:34 | 36 | 73 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66:47 | 19 | 65 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71:49 | 22 | 62 |
D
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65:52 | 13 | 61 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68:47 | 21 | 59 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51:57 | -6 | 47 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 61:65 | -4 | 44 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 9 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 45:61 | -16 | 43 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44:53 | -9 | 40 |
W
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 11 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44:58 | -14 | 39 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42:53 | -11 | 38 |
W
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 13 |
Hamburger SV
Away
|
34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:54 | -14 | 38 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
| 14 | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 49:63 | -14 | 32 |
L
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 15 |
Werder Bremen
Home
|
34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37:60 | -23 | 32 |
L
L
L
D
W
|
| 16 | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 45:69 | -24 | 29 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 41:72 | -31 | 26 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29:60 | -31 | 26 |
L
L
L
L
D
|