GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Weserstadion
Referee: Florian Exner, Germany
Werder Bremen
Match Timeline
Hamburger SV
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
37'
J. Stage · Assist: Y. Sugawara
Werder Bremen
41'
R. Glatzel · Assist: N. Capaldo
Hamburger SV
🟨
45'
Olivier Deman
Werder Bremen
🟨
45'
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer
Hamburger SV
57'
J. Stage · Assist: C. Puertas
Werder Bremen
🟨
58'
Miro Muheim
Hamburger SV
🔄
61'
J. Milosevic ↔ M. Grull
Werder Bremen
🔄
66'
A. Gronbaek ↔ P. Otele
Hamburger SV
🔄
67'
J. Stage ↔ L. Bittencourt
Werder Bremen
🟨
71'
Yukinari Sugawara
Werder Bremen
🟨
73'
Leonardo Bittencourt
Werder Bremen
🔄
75'
M. Muheim ↔ B. Jatta
Hamburger SV
🔄
75'
R. Konigsdorffer ↔ O. Stange
Hamburger SV
VAR
78'
Philip Otele
Hamburger SV
🟥
79'
Philip Otele
Hamburger SV
🟨
82'
Marco Grüll
Werder Bremen
🔄
83'
N. Capaldo ↔ D. Downs
Hamburger SV
VAR
87'
Bakery Jatta
Hamburger SV
🟨
89'
Bakery Jatta
Hamburger SV
🔄
89'
J. Njinmah ↔ N. Stark
Werder Bremen
90'
C. Puertas · Assist: R. Schmid
Werder Bremen

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 84%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 73.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
84%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
73.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Werder Bremen Win 28.7%
Draw 7.2%
Hamburger SV Win 64.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Werder Bremen1.28
Hamburger SV1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen
WWDLW
32 GF / 52 GA
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
WLDWL
32 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
13
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
15
4.07
Shots on Goal
4.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 29 matches
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 29 matches
Werder Bremen Statistic Hamburger SV
7 Wins 7
7 Draws 10
15 Losses 12
32 Goals For 32
52 Goals Against 45
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
13 BTTS Yes 17
23 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 15
10 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 10
4.07 Shots On Goal 4.59
13.14 Total Shots 12.17
4.48 Corners 3.76
51.9% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Werder Bremen appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Hamburger SV. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Werder Bremen expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Hamburger SV in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Hamburger SV having the stronger overall control. Werder Bremen have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Hamburger SV.

Werder Bremen Analysis

Werder Bremen sit 15 with 28 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 32:52 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Stage (7 goals), J. Njinmah (5 goals), J. Milosevic (3 goals), with creative support from R. Schmid (7 assists), Y. Sugawara (4 assists), J. Stage (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with W. Adeh, V. Boniface, K. Hein, M. Friedl unavailable.

Hamburger SV Analysis

Hamburger SV sit 13 with 31 points after 29 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 32:45 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. S. Lokonga (5 goals), F. Vieira (5 goals), L. Vuskovic (5 goals), with creative support from F. Vieira (5 assists), Miro Muheim (4 assists), W. Mikelbrencis (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Y. Poulsen, A. Rossing-Lelesiit, J. Dompe unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Werder Bremen won 7 times, Hamburger SV won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Werder Bremen's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.8%)
Predicted formations: Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1 / Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Werder Bremen 9, Hamburger SV 5
H2H summary: Werder Bremen wins 7, draws 2, Hamburger SV wins 6
Stats
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
7 Corner Kicks 3
14 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 5
2 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 7
10 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 7
446 Total passes 341
359 Passes accurate 253
1.74 expected_goals 0.57
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Werder Bremen
Formation
Hamburger SV
M. Backhaus
M. Backhaus
Y. Sugawara
🎯
Y. Sugawara
A. Pieper
A. Pieper
K. Coulibaly
K. Coulibaly
O. Deman
O. Deman
S. Lynen
S. Lynen
J. Njinmah
J. Njinmah
J. Stage
⚽ 2
J. Stage
C. Puertas
🎯
C. Puertas
R. Schmid
🎯
R. Schmid
J. Milosevic
J. Milosevic
D. Heuer Fernandes
D. Heuer Fernandes
N. Capaldo
🎯
N. Capaldo
J. Torunarigha
J. Torunarigha
W. Omari
W. Omari
W. Mikelbrencis
W. Mikelbrencis
N. Remberg
N. Remberg
A. Gronbaek
A. Gronbaek
M. Muheim
M. Muheim
F. Vieira
F. Vieira
R. Glatzel
R. Glatzel
R. Konigsdorffer
R. Konigsdorffer
Werder Bremen 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
30
M. Backhaus
G
3
Y. Sugawara
🎯 37' 🟨 71'
D
5
A. Pieper
D
31
K. Coulibaly
D
2
O. Deman
🟨 45'
D
14
S. Lynen
M
11
J. Njinmah
↓ 89'
M
6
J. Stage
⚽ 37' ⚽ 57' ↓ 67'
M
18
C. Puertas
⚽ 90' 🎯 57'
M
20
R. Schmid
🎯 90'
M
19
J. Milosevic
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
25
M. Kolke
G
10
L. Bittencourt
↑ 67' 🟨 73'
M
4
N. Stark
↑ 89'
D
39
M. Wober
D
24
P. Covic
M
17
M. Grull
↑ 61' 🟨 82'
F
23
I. Schmidt
D
7
S. Mbangula
F
29
S. Musah
F
Hamburger SV 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
1
D. Heuer Fernandes
G
24
N. Capaldo
🎯 41' ↓ 83'
D
25
J. Torunarigha
D
17
W. Omari
D
2
W. Mikelbrencis
M
21
N. Remberg
M
23
A. Gronbaek
↓ 66'
M
28
M. Muheim
↓ 75' 🟨 58'
M
20
F. Vieira
F
9
R. Glatzel
⚽ 41'
F
11
R. Konigsdorffer
↓ 75' 🟨 45'
F
Substitutes
12
S. Tangvik
G
18
B. Jatta
↑ 75' 🟨 89'
M
14
R. Philippe
F
19
D. Downs
↑ 83'
F
49
O. Stange
↑ 75'
F
16
G. Gocholeishvili
D
8
D. Elfadli
M
27
P. Otele
↑ 66' 🟥 79'
F
43
S. Nandja
D
Last matches: Werder Bremen
16.05.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
09.05.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim
0
1
L
02.05.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
1
3
L
26.04.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
1
1
D
12.04.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
1
3
L
04.04.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
1
2
L
21.03.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg
1
0
W
15.03.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
0
2
L
08.03.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin
4
1
W
28.02.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
22.02.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
FC St. Pauli
1
2
L
14.02.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Bayern München
0
3
L
07.02.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg
0
1
L
31.01.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
1
D
27.01.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim
0
2
L
24.01.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Bayer Leverkusen
0
1
L
16.01.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
3
D
13.01.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
0
3
L
04.01.26
Fri
Werder Bremen
FC St. Pauli
0
0
D
20.12.25
Bun
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
0
0
D
Last matches: Hamburger SV
16.05.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
10.05.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
3
2
W
02.05.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
1
W
25.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
1
2
L
12.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
0
4
L
04.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
1
1
D
21.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund
2
3
L
14.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
1
1
D
07.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
VfL Wolfsburg
2
1
W
04.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
0
1
L
01.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
1
2
L
20.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
1
1
D
14.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Union Berlin
3
2
W
07.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
31.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Bayern München
2
2
D
23.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FC St. Pauli
0
0
D
17.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
0
D
10.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
1
2
L
20.12.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
1
1
D
13.12.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
1
4
L
H2H: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
18.04.26
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
3
1
W
07.12.25
H2H
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
3
2
L
27.02.22
H2H
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
2
3
W
18.09.21
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
0
2
L
24.02.18
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
0
W
30.09.17
H2H
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
0
0
D
16.04.17
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
2
1
W
26.11.16
H2H
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
2
2
D
22.04.16
H2H
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
2
1
L
28.11.15
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
3
L
19.04.15
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
0
W
23.11.14
H2H
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
2
0
L
01.03.14
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
0
W
21.09.13
H2H
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
0
2
W
27.01.13
H2H
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
3
2
L
Last matches: Werder Bremen
16.05.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
02.05.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
1
3
L
04.04.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
1
2
L
15.03.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
0
2
L
28.02.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
14.02.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Bayern München
0
3
L
31.01.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
1
D
27.01.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim
0
2
L
16.01.26
Bun
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
3
D
14.12.25
Bun
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
0
4
L
29.11.25
Bun
Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
1
1
D
07.11.25
Bun
Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg
2
1
W
24.10.25
Bun
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin
1
0
W
04.10.25
Bun
Werder Bremen
FC St. Pauli
1
0
W
20.09.25
Bun
Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg
0
3
L
30.08.25
Bun
Werder Bremen
Bayer Leverkusen
3
3
D
H2H at home: Werder Bremen
18.04.26
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
3
1
W
18.09.21
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
0
2
L
24.02.18
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
0
W
16.04.17
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
2
1
W
28.11.15
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
3
L
19.04.15
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
0
W
01.03.14
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
0
W
Last matches: Hamburger SV
16.05.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
02.05.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
1
W
12.04.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
0
4
L
21.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund
2
3
L
07.03.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
VfL Wolfsburg
2
1
W
20.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05
1
1
D
07.02.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
23.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
FC St. Pauli
0
0
D
10.01.26
Bun
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
1
2
L
13.12.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
1
4
L
22.11.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
0
1
L
02.11.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
1
4
L
18.10.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
1
2
L
28.09.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
Union Berlin
0
0
D
13.09.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
Bayern München
0
5
L
24.08.25
Bun
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
0
D
18.05.25
2.
Hamburger SV
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
3
L
03.05.25
2.
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
4
0
W
19.04.25
2.
Hamburger SV
FC Schalke 04
2
2
D
05.04.25
2.
Hamburger SV
1. FC Nürnberg
3
0
W
H2H away: Hamburger SV
18.04.26
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
3
1
L
18.09.21
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
0
2
W
24.02.18
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
0
L
16.04.17
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
2
1
L
28.11.15
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
3
W
19.04.15
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
0
L
01.03.14
H2H
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
1
0
L

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Werder Bremen 9 missing
-
W. Adeh
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
V. Boniface
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
K. Hein
Missing Fixture Hand Injury
OUT
-
J. Malatini
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
K. Topp
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Weiser
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Wober
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. Stage
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
M. Friedl
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
Hamburger SV 5 missing
-
Y. Poulsen
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
A. Rossing-Lelesiit
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
J. Dompe
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
L. Vuskovic
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. S. Lokonga
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT