12.08.2026 00:30
Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi
Referee: R. Claus
Estudiantes L.P.
Match Timeline
U. Catolica
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
J. Burgos
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
9'
F. Zampedri
U. Catolica
🔄
61'
Perez Fabricio ↔ J. Correa
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
64'
E. Mena ↔ D. Corral
U. Catolica
🔄
67'
A. Castro ↔ Gabriel Neves
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
67'
T. Palacios ↔ B. Rodriguez
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
74'
B. Rodriguez
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
78'
C. Cuevas
U. Catolica
80'
F. Zampedri · Assist: J. Giani
U. Catolica
🔄
85'
J. Burgos ↔ B. Aguirre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
85'
J. Valencia ↔ G. Medel
U. Catolica
🔄
85'
B. Cerezo ↔ A. Farias
U. Catolica
🟨
90'
T. Palacios
Estudiantes L.P.

Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.2%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Estudiantes L.P. Win 45.1%
Draw 12.8%
U. Catolica Win 42.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estudiantes L.P.1.25
U. Catolica1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WWDLW
35 GF / 18 GA
U. Catolica U. Catolica
WLDWL
62 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
2.07
0.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
8
BTTS Yes
18
8
Over 2.5
22
4.85
Shots on Goal
4.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 29 matches
U. Catolica U. Catolica 30 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Statistic U. Catolica
14 Wins 18
7 Draws 4
8 Losses 8
35 Goals For 62
18 Goals Against 39
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 2.07
0.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
8 BTTS Yes 18
16 Over 1.5 26
8 Over 2.5 22
2 Over 3.5 11
13 Clean Sheets 8
11 Failed To Score 5
4.85 Shots On Goal 4.92
13.52 Total Shots 13.46
4.19 Corners 5.25
52.2% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. U. Catolica look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring U. Catolica. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. U. Catolica carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 13 points while Estudiantes L.P. sit 2 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Estudiantes L.P. arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 9 points after 6 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 6:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on T. Palacios (3 goals), F. Farias (1 goals), G. Carrillo (1 goals), with creative support from M. Amondarain (2 assists), Alexis Castro (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

U. Catolica Analysis

U. Catolica enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 6 matches, placing them 1 in their league. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:4 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking influence is driven by F. Zampedri (3 goals), C. Montes (2 goals), J. A. Martinez (1 goals), with creative support from C. Montes (2 assists), J. Giani (1 assists), E. Mena (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes L.P. won 1 times, U. Catolica won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:1 from Estudiantes L.P.'s perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
Predicted formations: Estudiantes L.P. 4-2-3-1 / U. Catolica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estudiantes L.P. wins 1, draws 1, U. Catolica wins 0

Standings

Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 14:2 12 16
W W D W W
2 6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
W L D D W
3 6 2 1 3 6:11 -5 7
L W W L D
4 6 0 1 5 4:12 -8 1
L L D L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals