ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
28.04.2026 18:45
St. Mary's Stadium
Referee: T. Kirk
Southampton
Match Timeline
Ipswich
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
48'
W. Burns · Assist: I. Azon
Ipswich
🟨
57'
Jacob Greaves
Ipswich
58'
R. Manning
Southampton
🔄
67'
J. Philogene ↔ J. Clarke
Ipswich
🔄
67'
W. Burns ↔ K. McAteer
Ipswich
🔄
69'
T. Fellows ↔ S. Edozie
Southampton
🟨
75'
Ivan Azón
Ipswich
🔄
75'
M. Nunez ↔ J. Cajuste
Ipswich
🔄
75'
I. Azon ↔ G. Hirst
Ipswich
80'
C. Larin · Assist: R. Manning
Southampton
🔄
81'
C. Larin ↔ R. Stewart
Southampton
🔄
82'
A. Matusiwa ↔ C. Akpom
Ipswich
87'
J. Clarke
Ipswich

Southampton vs Ipswich Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 15.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 22.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
15.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
22.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Southampton Win 52.9%
Draw 8.6%
Ipswich Win 38.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Southampton1.46
Ipswich1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Southampton Southampton
WWDLW
86 GF / 59 GA
Ipswich Ipswich
WLDWL
77 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.76
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
35
BTTS Yes
26
31
Over 2.5
23
5.22
Shots on Goal
4.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Southampton Southampton 49 matches
Ipswich Ipswich 46 matches
Southampton Statistic Ipswich
25 Wins 23
13 Draws 14
11 Losses 9
86 Goals For 77
59 Goals Against 47
1.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
35 BTTS Yes 26
42 Over 1.5 38
31 Over 2.5 23
15 Over 3.5 11
12 Clean Sheets 16
5 Failed To Score 7
5.22 Shots On Goal 4.93
13.71 Total Shots 15.24
5.63 Corners 5.83
55.1% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ipswich. Southampton come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ipswich having the stronger overall control.

Southampton Analysis

Southampton approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 76 points after 44 outings. With 21 wins, 13 draws, and 10 defeats plus a goal balance of 77:53, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Armstrong (11 goals), F. Azaz (11 goals), L. Scienza (7 goals), with creative support from L. Scienza (10 assists), F. Azaz (8 assists), Tom Fellows (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the split of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with M. Roerslev Rasmussen, Welington, A. McCarthy, F. Downes unavailable.

Ipswich Analysis

Ipswich come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 80 points from 44 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 22 wins, 14 draws, and 8 losses, while the 75:45 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Clarke (15 goals), J. Philogene (11 goals), G. Hirst (10 goals), with creative support from L. Davis (4 assists), I. Azon (3 assists), Conor Chaplin (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. Although they are without D. Button, L. Davis, C. Townsend, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Southampton won 3 times, Ipswich won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:13 from Southampton's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.4%)
Predicted formations: Southampton 4-2-3-1 / Ipswich 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Southampton 4, Ipswich 4
H2H summary: Southampton wins 3, draws 5, Ipswich wins 2

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation