ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
St. Mary's Stadium
Referee: T. Kirk
Southampton
Match Timeline
Ipswich
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
48'
W. Burns · Assist: I. Azon
Ipswich
🟨
57'
Jacob Greaves
Ipswich
58'
R. Manning
Southampton
🔄
67'
J. Philogene ↔ J. Clarke
Ipswich
🔄
67'
W. Burns ↔ K. McAteer
Ipswich
🔄
69'
T. Fellows ↔ S. Edozie
Southampton
🟨
75'
Ivan Azón
Ipswich
🔄
75'
M. Nunez ↔ J. Cajuste
Ipswich
🔄
75'
I. Azon ↔ G. Hirst
Ipswich
80'
C. Larin · Assist: R. Manning
Southampton
🔄
81'
C. Larin ↔ R. Stewart
Southampton
🔄
82'
A. Matusiwa ↔ C. Akpom
Ipswich
87'
J. Clarke
Ipswich

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 15.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 22.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
15.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
22.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Southampton Win 52.9%
Draw 8.6%
Ipswich Win 38.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Southampton1.46
Ipswich1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Southampton Southampton
WWDLW
86 GF / 59 GA
Ipswich Ipswich
WLDWL
77 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.76
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
35
BTTS Yes
26
31
Over 2.5
23
5.22
Shots on Goal
4.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Southampton Southampton 49 matches
Ipswich Ipswich 46 matches
Southampton Statistic Ipswich
25 Wins 23
13 Draws 14
11 Losses 9
86 Goals For 77
59 Goals Against 47
1.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
35 BTTS Yes 26
42 Over 1.5 38
31 Over 2.5 23
15 Over 3.5 11
12 Clean Sheets 16
5 Failed To Score 7
5.22 Shots On Goal 4.93
13.71 Total Shots 15.24
5.63 Corners 5.83
55.1% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ipswich. Southampton come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ipswich having the stronger overall control.

Southampton Analysis

Southampton approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 76 points after 44 outings. With 21 wins, 13 draws, and 10 defeats plus a goal balance of 77:53, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Armstrong (11 goals), F. Azaz (11 goals), L. Scienza (7 goals), with creative support from L. Scienza (10 assists), F. Azaz (8 assists), Tom Fellows (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the split of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with M. Roerslev Rasmussen, Welington, A. McCarthy, F. Downes unavailable.

Ipswich Analysis

Ipswich come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 80 points from 44 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 22 wins, 14 draws, and 8 losses, while the 75:45 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Clarke (15 goals), J. Philogene (11 goals), G. Hirst (10 goals), with creative support from L. Davis (4 assists), I. Azon (3 assists), Conor Chaplin (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. Although they are without D. Button, L. Davis, C. Townsend, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Southampton won 3 times, Ipswich won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:13 from Southampton's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.4%)
Predicted formations: Southampton 4-2-3-1 / Ipswich 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Southampton 4, Ipswich 4
H2H summary: Southampton wins 3, draws 5, Ipswich wins 2
Stats
Southampton Southampton
Ipswich Ipswich
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
9
Blocked Shots
2
5 Corner Kicks 9
18 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 2
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Goal 9
5 Shots off Goal 8
9 Blocked Shots 2
9 Shots insidebox 12
9 Shots outsidebox 7
7 Goalkeeper Saves 2
356 Total passes 352
275 Passes accurate 269
1.01 expected_goals 1.92
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Southampton
Formation
Ipswich
D. Peretz
D. Peretz
J. Bree
J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
T. Harwood-Bellis
N. Wood
N. Wood
R. Manning
🎯
R. Manning
S. Charles
S. Charles
C. Jander
C. Jander
T. Fellows
T. Fellows
F. Azaz
F. Azaz
L. Scienza
L. Scienza
C. Larin
C. Larin
C. Walton
C. Walton
D. Furlong
D. Furlong
D. O'Shea
D. O'Shea
J. Greaves
J. Greaves
L. Davis
L. Davis
A. Matusiwa
A. Matusiwa
D. Neil
D. Neil
W. Burns
W. Burns
M. Nunez
M. Nunez
J. Philogene
J. Philogene
I. Azon
🎯
I. Azon
Southampton 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
41
D. Peretz
G
14
J. Bree
D
6
T. Harwood-Bellis
D
15
N. Wood
D
3
R. Manning
⚽ 58' 🎯 80'
D
24
S. Charles
M
20
C. Jander
M
18
T. Fellows
↓ 69'
M
10
F. Azaz
M
13
L. Scienza
M
9
C. Larin
⚽ 80' ↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
25
G. Long
G
28
O. Romeu
M
34
Welington
D
38
E. Jelert
D
11
R. Stewart
↑ 81'
F
19
C. Archer
F
23
S. Edozie
↑ 69'
M
48
C. Bragg
M
17
J. Quarshie
D
Ipswich 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
28
C. Walton
G
19
D. Furlong
D
26
D. O'Shea
D
24
J. Greaves
🟨 57'
D
3
L. Davis
D
5
A. Matusiwa
↓ 82'
M
6
D. Neil
M
7
W. Burns
⚽ 48' ↓ 67'
M
32
M. Nunez
↓ 75'
M
11
J. Philogene
↓ 67'
M
31
I. Azon
🎯 48' ↓ 75' 🟨 75'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Palmer
G
12
J. Cajuste
↑ 75'
M
18
B. Johnson
D
4
C. Kipre
D
47
J. Clarke
⚽ 87' ↑ 67'
F
20
K. McAteer
↑ 67'
M
33
A. Mehmeti
M
29
C. Akpom
↑ 82'
F
9
G. Hirst
↑ 75'
F
Last matches: Southampton
12.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
09.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Preston
3
1
W
25.04.26
FA
Southampton
Manchester City
1
2
L
21.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Bristol City
2
2
D
18.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Swansea
2
1
W
14.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Blackburn
3
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Derby
2
1
W
07.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Wrexham
5
1
W
04.04.26
FA
Southampton
Arsenal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Oxford United
2
0
W
18.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Norwich
1
0
W
14.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Coventry
2
1
W
11.03.26
Cha
Southampton
West Brom
1
1
D
08.03.26
FA
Southampton
Fulham
1
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Southampton
QPR
5
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Charlton
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Southampton
Leicester
2
1
W
10.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Leicester
4
3
W
Last matches: Ipswich
02.05.26
Cha
Ipswich
QPR
3
0
W
25.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
West Brom
0
0
D
22.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Charlton
2
1
W
19.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
14.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Portsmouth
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Norwich
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Birmingham
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Millwall
1
1
D
14.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Stoke City
3
3
D
07.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Leicester
1
1
D
03.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Hull City
1
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Swansea
3
0
W
24.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Watford
2
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Wrexham
3
5
L
13.02.26
FA
Ipswich
Wrexham
0
1
L
07.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Derby
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Preston
1
1
D
24.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Utd
1
3
L
20.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Bristol City
2
0
W
H2H: Southampton vs Ipswich
28.04.26
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
2
2
D
17.08.25
H2H
Ipswich
Southampton
1
1
D
01.02.25
H2H
Ipswich
Southampton
1
2
W
21.09.24
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
1
1
D
01.04.24
H2H
Ipswich
Southampton
3
2
L
19.09.23
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
0
1
L
14.01.15
H2H
Ipswich
Southampton
0
1
W
04.01.15
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
1
1
D
06.03.12
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
1
1
D
16.08.11
H2H
Ipswich
Southampton
2
5
W
Last matches: Southampton
12.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
21.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Bristol City
2
2
D
14.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Blackburn
3
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Derby
2
1
W
04.04.26
FA
Southampton
Arsenal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Oxford United
2
0
W
18.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Norwich
1
0
W
24.02.26
Cha
Southampton
QPR
5
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Charlton
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Southampton
Leicester
2
1
W
07.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Watford
1
0
W
21.01.26
Cha
Southampton
Sheffield Utd
1
0
W
17.01.26
Cha
Southampton
Hull City
1
2
L
01.01.26
Cha
Southampton
Millwall
0
0
D
20.12.25
Cha
Southampton
Coventry
1
1
D
09.12.25
Cha
Southampton
West Brom
3
2
W
06.12.25
Cha
Southampton
Birmingham
3
1
W
25.11.25
Cha
Southampton
Leicester
3
0
W
08.11.25
Cha
Southampton
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
01.11.25
Cha
Southampton
Preston
0
2
L
H2H at home: Southampton
28.04.26
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
2
2
D
21.09.24
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
1
1
D
19.09.23
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
0
1
L
04.01.15
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
1
1
D
06.03.12
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
1
1
D
Last matches: Ipswich
25.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
West Brom
0
0
D
22.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Charlton
2
1
W
14.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Portsmouth
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Norwich
2
0
W
14.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Stoke City
3
3
D
24.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Watford
2
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Wrexham
3
5
L
13.02.26
FA
Ipswich
Wrexham
0
1
L
07.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Derby
2
1
W
24.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Utd
1
3
L
29.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Coventry
2
0
W
26.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Millwall
0
0
D
13.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Leicester
1
3
L
02.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Blackburn
1
1
D
28.11.25
Cha
Ipswich
Oxford United
1
2
L
25.11.25
Cha
Ipswich
Hull City
2
0
W
08.11.25
Cha
Ipswich
Swansea
4
1
W
01.11.25
Cha
Ipswich
QPR
4
1
W
17.10.25
Cha
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
1
2
L
H2H away: Ipswich
28.04.26
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
2
2
D
21.09.24
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
1
1
D
19.09.23
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
0
1
W
04.01.15
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
1
1
D
06.03.12
H2H
Southampton
Ipswich
1
1
D

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Southampton 4 missing
-
M. Roerslev Rasmussen
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
A. McCarthy
Missing Fixture Wrist Injury
OUT
-
F. Downes
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT
-
J. Stephens
Questionable Inactive
OUT
Ipswich 4 missing
-
D. Button
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
L. Davis
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
C. Townsend
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Young
Questionable Hip Injury
OUT