ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Fratton Park
Referee: J. Brooks
Portsmouth
Match Timeline
Birmingham
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
A. Segecic · Assist: J. Williams
Portsmouth
🔄
17'
J. Stansfield ↔ Paik Seung-Ho
Birmingham
19'
A. Priske · Assist: K. Wagner
Birmingham
🔄
21'
J. Swift ↔ C. Chaplin
Portsmouth
🟨
39'
Luke Le Roux
Portsmouth
🔄
46'
C. Ogilvie ↔ R. Poole
Portsmouth
🔄
54'
J. E. Solis Romero ↔ T. Doyle
Birmingham
🟨
63'
Carlos Vicente
Birmingham
🔄
71'
H. Matthews ↔ C. Shaughnessy
Portsmouth
🔄
71'
M. Alli ↔ T. Waddingham
Portsmouth
🟨
81'
Adrian Segečić
Portsmouth
🟨
82'
Bright Osayi-Samuel
Birmingham
🔄
84'
L. Le Roux ↔ M. Pack
Portsmouth

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Portsmouth Win 64.9%
Draw 0%
Birmingham Win 35.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Portsmouth1.13
Birmingham1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Portsmouth Portsmouth
WWDLW
49 GF / 67 GA
Birmingham Birmingham
WLDWL
60 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
25
BTTS Yes
27
21
Over 2.5
22
3.72
Shots on Goal
4.15

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 matches
Birmingham Birmingham 47 matches
Portsmouth Statistic Birmingham
14 Wins 18
12 Draws 13
20 Losses 16
49 Goals For 60
67 Goals Against 58
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
25 BTTS Yes 27
31 Over 1.5 37
21 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 9
10 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 11
3.72 Shots On Goal 4.15
12.17 Total Shots 13.64
5.7 Corners 5.72
50.2% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Birmingham's more proactive style and Portsmouth's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Birmingham. Birmingham carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 63 points while Portsmouth sit 18 on 54, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Portsmouth come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Portsmouth Analysis

With 54 points from 45 games and a place of 18, Portsmouth still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 14 wins, 12 draws, and 19 losses, together with goals at 48:63, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their threat comes through A. Segecic (10 goals), T. Devlin (5 goals), C. Bishop (3 goals), with creative support from J. Murphy (7 assists), A. Segecic (4 assists), John Swift (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Birmingham Analysis

Birmingham are currently 10 in the standings with 63 points from 45 matches. Their overall return of 17 wins, 12 draws, and 16 losses with goals at 56:55 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Stansfield (10 goals), M. Ducksch (10 goals), D. Gray (5 goals), with creative support from J. Stansfield (6 assists), D. Gray (5 assists), P. Roberts (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Portsmouth won 2 times, Birmingham won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:7 from Portsmouth's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Portsmouth 4-2-3-1 / Birmingham 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Portsmouth wins 2, draws 1, Birmingham wins 2
Stats
Portsmouth Portsmouth
Birmingham Birmingham
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 9
19 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 5
6 Blocked Shots 3
6 Shots insidebox 10
8 Shots outsidebox 3
4 Goalkeeper Saves 1
274 Total passes 253
191 Passes accurate 156
0.74 expected_goals 1.67
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Portsmouth
Formation
Birmingham
B. Killip
B. Killip
J. Williams
🎯
J. Williams
H. Matthews
H. Matthews
I. Bowat
I. Bowat
C. Ogilvie
C. Ogilvie
L. Le Roux
L. Le Roux
A. Dozzell
A. Dozzell
A. Segecic
A. Segecic
J. Swift
J. Swift
M. Alli
M. Alli
J. Brown
J. Brown
J. Beadle
J. Beadle
B. Osayi-Samuel
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Neumann
P. Neumann
C. Klarer
C. Klarer
K. Wagner
🎯
K. Wagner
T. Iwata
T. Iwata
J. E. Solis Romero
J. E. Solis Romero
C. Vicente
C. Vicente
J. Stansfield
J. Stansfield
I. Osman
I. Osman
A. Priske
A. Priske
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
B. Killip
G
2
J. Williams
🎯 8'
D
14
H. Matthews
↓ 71'
D
17
I. Bowat
D
3
C. Ogilvie
↓ 46'
D
16
L. Le Roux
↓ 84' 🟨 39'
M
21
A. Dozzell
M
10
A. Segecic
⚽ 8' 🟨 81'
M
8
J. Swift
↓ 21'
M
27
M. Alli
↓ 71'
M
40
J. Brown
F
Substitutes
1
N. Schmid
G
7
M. Pack
↑ 84'
M
5
R. Poole
↑ 46'
D
38
E. Adams
M
25
M. Kirk
F
6
C. Shaughnessy
↑ 71'
D
36
C. Chaplin
↑ 21'
F
20
T. Waddingham
↑ 71'
F
28
R. Swann
M
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
J. Beadle
G
26
B. Osayi-Samuel
🟨 82'
D
5
P. Neumann
D
4
C. Klarer
D
31
K. Wagner
🎯 19'
D
24
T. Iwata
M
14
J. E. Solis Romero
↓ 54'
M
23
C. Vicente
🟨 63'
M
28
J. Stansfield
↓ 17'
M
17
I. Osman
M
29
A. Priske
⚽ 19'
F
Substitutes
21
R. Allsop
G
10
D. Gray
F
7
T. Doyle
↑ 54'
M
33
M. Ducksch
F
16
P. Roberts
M
8
Paik Seung-Ho
↑ 17'
M
37
J. Panzo
D
20
A. Cochrane
D
2
E. Laird
D
Last matches: Portsmouth
18.07.26
Fri
Portsmouth
Bristol Rovers
1
1
D
15.07.26
Fri
Portsmouth
Aldershot Town
0
2
L
14.07.26
Fri
Portsmouth
Woking
2
1
W
25.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Stoke City
3
1
W
21.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Coventry
1
5
L
18.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Leicester
1
0
W
14.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Ipswich
2
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Middlesbrough
1
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Oxford United
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Norwich
1
1
D
21.03.26
Cha
Portsmouth
QPR
1
6
L
16.03.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Derby
0
1
L
10.03.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Swansea
1
2
L
07.03.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Blackburn
1
1
D
28.02.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Hull City
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Wrexham
1
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Millwall
3
1
W
17.02.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Charlton
3
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Sheffield Utd
0
1
L
07.02.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Preston
0
1
L
Last matches: Birmingham
22.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Burton Albion
1
0
W
15.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Solihull Moors
3
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Huddersfield
3
1
W
25.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Bristol City
2
1
W
22.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Preston
2
1
W
18.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Hull City
1
1
D
12.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Wrexham
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Ipswich
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Blackburn
0
1
L
21.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Derby
0
1
L
14.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Utd
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
QPR
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Charlton
0
1
L
02.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
1
3
L
25.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Millwall
0
3
L
21.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Norwich
2
1
W
15.02.26
FA
Birmingham
Leeds
1
1
D
10.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
West Brom
0
0
D
07.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Leicester
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Oxford United
2
0
W
H2H: Portsmouth vs Birmingham
02.05.26
H2H
Portsmouth
Birmingham
1
1
D
01.11.25
H2H
Birmingham
Portsmouth
4
0
L
06.08.19
H2H
Portsmouth
Birmingham
3
0
W
20.03.12
H2H
Portsmouth
Birmingham
4
1
W
07.02.12
H2H
Birmingham
Portsmouth
1
0
L
Last matches: Portsmouth
18.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Leicester
1
0
W
14.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Ipswich
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Oxford United
2
2
D
16.03.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Derby
0
1
L
10.03.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Swansea
1
2
L
28.02.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Hull City
0
1
L
14.02.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Sheffield Utd
0
1
L
31.01.26
Cha
Portsmouth
West Brom
3
0
W
25.01.26
Cha
Portsmouth
Southampton
1
1
D
11.01.26
FA
Portsmouth
Arsenal
1
4
L
29.12.25
Cha
Portsmouth
Charlton
2
1
W
26.12.25
Cha
Portsmouth
QPR
1
1
D
13.12.25
Cha
Portsmouth
Blackburn
2
1
W
29.11.25
Cha
Portsmouth
Bristol City
0
1
L
22.11.25
Cha
Portsmouth
Millwall
3
1
W
05.11.25
Cha
Portsmouth
Wrexham
0
0
D
25.10.25
Cha
Portsmouth
Stoke City
0
1
L
21.10.25
Cha
Portsmouth
Coventry
1
2
L
04.10.25
Cha
Portsmouth
Middlesbrough
1
0
W
01.10.25
Cha
Portsmouth
Watford
2
2
D
H2H at home: Portsmouth
02.05.26
H2H
Portsmouth
Birmingham
1
1
D
06.08.19
H2H
Portsmouth
Birmingham
3
0
W
20.03.12
H2H
Portsmouth
Birmingham
4
1
W
Last matches: Birmingham
22.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Burton Albion
1
0
W
15.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Solihull Moors
3
0
W
18.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Hull City
1
1
D
06.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Ipswich
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Derby
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Charlton
0
1
L
25.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Millwall
0
3
L
21.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Norwich
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Oxford United
2
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
17.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Swansea
1
1
D
10.01.26
FA
Birmingham
Cambridge United
3
2
W
01.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Watford
0
3
L
20.12.25
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Utd
0
3
L
09.12.25
Cha
Birmingham
QPR
1
2
L
06.12.25
Cha
Birmingham
Southampton
1
3
L
26.11.25
Cha
Birmingham
West Brom
1
1
D
08.11.25
Cha
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
1
2
L
25.10.25
Cha
Birmingham
Bristol City
0
1
L
21.10.25
Cha
Birmingham
Preston
1
0
W
H2H away: Birmingham
02.05.26
H2H
Portsmouth
Birmingham
1
1
D
06.08.19
H2H
Portsmouth
Birmingham
3
0
L
20.03.12
H2H
Portsmouth
Birmingham
4
1
L

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
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