ITALY SERIE B
12.05.2026 16:45
Stadio Alberto Braglia
Referee: F. Fourneau
Modena
Match Timeline
Juve Stabia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Salim Diakité
Juve Stabia
🟨
14'
Steven Nador
Modena
🟨
45'
Manuel De Luca
Modena
🟨
63'
Alessandro Sersanti
Modena
🔄
63'
L. Carissoni ↔ M. Ricciardi
Juve Stabia
🔄
63'
F. Maistro ↔ R. Burnete
Juve Stabia
🔄
68'
A. Sersanti ↔ N. Pyyhtia
Modena
🔄
69'
M. De Luca ↔ E. Gliozzi
Modena
🔄
75'
M. Cotali ↔ G. Beyuku
Modena
🔄
78'
G. Leone ↔ K. Zeroli
Juve Stabia
🔄
78'
N. Mosti ↔ C. Pierobon
Juve Stabia
🔄
84'
A. Okoro ↔ A. Gabrielloni
Juve Stabia
86'
K. Zeroli
Juve Stabia
🔄
89'
G. Ambrosino ↔ G. Defrel
Modena
🔄
89'
S. Santoro ↔ P. Mendes
Modena

Modena vs Juve Stabia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 25.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
25.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Modena Win 77.4%
Draw 0%
Juve Stabia Win 22.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Modena1.24
Juve Stabia1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Modena Modena
WWDLW
49 GF / 37 GA
Juve Stabia Juve Stabia
WLDWL
44 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.13
0.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
19
BTTS Yes
21
19
Over 2.5
16
4.67
Shots on Goal
3.95

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Modena Modena 39 matches
Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 39 matches
Modena Statistic Juve Stabia
15 Wins 11
10 Draws 18
14 Losses 10
49 Goals For 44
37 Goals Against 47
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
0.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
19 BTTS Yes 21
29 Over 1.5 29
19 Over 2.5 16
4 Over 3.5 9
14 Clean Sheets 11
11 Failed To Score 11
4.67 Shots On Goal 3.95
15.08 Total Shots 12.05
5.33 Corners 4.87
50.5% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between Modena's more proactive style and Juve Stabia's more cautious structure, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Modena hold an advantage after winning the first leg 2-1, so Juve Stabia now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. In the previous meeting, Juve Stabia controlled more possession in the first leg (65% against 35%). both sides produced the same number of shots on target. Juve Stabia circulated the ball more often, making 459 passes to 257 and completing 384. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Juve Stabia. Modena have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Modena expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Juve Stabia in 3-5-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juve Stabia having the stronger overall control.

Modena Analysis

Modena enter this tie with a season profile built on 55 points from 38 matches, placing them 6 in their league. The return of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 49:36 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by E. Gliozzi (11 goals), D. Tonoli (5 goals), Francesco Zampano (4 goals), with creative support from S. Santoro (4 assists), L. Magnino (4 assists), M. De Luca (3 assists), and at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Juve Stabia Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Juve Stabia arrive from a league campaign that has them 7 with 51 points after 38 matches. The return of 11 wins, 18 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 44:45 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by L. Candellone (7 goals), N. Mosti (7 goals), L. Carissoni (6 goals), with creative support from F. Maistro (7 assists), A. Gabrielloni (3 assists), N. Mosti (2 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses, which supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Modena won 3 times, Juve Stabia won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:4 from Modena's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Modena 3-5-2 / Juve Stabia 3-5-1-1
H2H summary: Modena wins 3, draws 0, Juve Stabia wins 2

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation