BRAZIL SERIE A
13.09.2026 19:00

Mirassol vs Vitoria Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds 1.73
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.93
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.3%
1.73
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.93
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.18
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 72.3%
Draw 8.8%
Vitoria Win 19%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol1.22
Vitoria1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
37 GF / 45 GA
Vitoria Vitoria
WLDWL
25 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
20
BTTS Yes
9
15
Over 2.5
9
4.18
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 34 matches
Vitoria Vitoria 26 matches
Mirassol Statistic Vitoria
11 Wins 9
9 Draws 5
14 Losses 12
37 Goals For 25
45 Goals Against 37
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
20 BTTS Yes 9
24 Over 1.5 20
15 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 10
10 Failed To Score 9
4.18 Shots On Goal 3.96
12.71 Total Shots 11.88
5.12 Corners 4.42
49.4% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vitoria. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mirassol expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Vitoria in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vitoria having the stronger overall control.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol sit 16 with 25 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 27:39, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Igor Formiga (4 goals), Eduardo (3 goals), João Victor (2 goals), with creative support from Reinaldo (4 assists), Alesson (4 assists), Igor Formiga (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 29 points from 25 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 24:37, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Renê Sousa (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (3 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Diego Tarzia (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 1 times, Vitoria won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:6 from Mirassol's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.2%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 5-4-1 / Vitoria 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Mirassol 6, Vitoria 10
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 1, draws 2, Vitoria wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 16 6 4 51:21 30 54
W W W L W
2 26 15 8 3 45:21 24 53
D D W L D
3 26 13 6 7 38:28 10 45
L D W D W
4 26 12 9 5 40:32 8 45
W D W W D
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 26 12 6 8 38:37 1 42
W L W W W
7 26 10 7 9 34:35 -1 37
L W W D W
8 25 10 6 9 32:30 2 36
L W D W D
9 25 10 5 10 31:28 3 35
L L W D L
10 25 9 6 10 31:28 3 33
W W L D L
11 26 9 5 12 25:37 -12 32
W L L W L
12 26 8 8 10 27:27 0 32
L L L L W
13 25 8 8 9 37:38 -1 32
W W D W L
14 25 8 7 10 37:40 -3 31
D L L L D
15 25 7 7 11 27:33 -6 28
L W L L W
16 26 7 7 12 29:40 -11 28
W L D D L
17 25 6 7 12 27:40 -13 25
L W L L D
18 26 5 10 11 28:34 -6 25
L L D D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 25 3 8 14 27:50 -23 17
W L W D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B