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BRAZIL › SERIE A
18.10.2026 00:00
Estadio Do MorumBIS

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sao Paulo Win 62.8%
Draw 4.6%
Vasco DA Gama Win 32.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo1.28
Vasco DA Gama1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WWDLW
35 GF / 35 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
36 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
17
BTTS Yes
18
12
Over 2.5
17
4.23
Shots on Goal
5.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 30 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 29 matches
Sao Paulo Statistic Vasco DA Gama
11 Wins 9
6 Draws 8
13 Losses 12
35 Goals For 36
35 Goals Against 42
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
17 BTTS Yes 18
23 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 17
3 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 9
4.23 Shots On Goal 5.45
13.57 Total Shots 17.76
6.83 Corners 6
53.5% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vasco DA Gama. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Sao Paulo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sao Paulo expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 36 points from 29 matches. The overall return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 13 defeats with a 33:34 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Luciano (8 goals), J. Calleri (8 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Luciano (2 assists), Artur (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 35 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 36:42 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Gómez (5 goals), David (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (4 goals), with creative support from J. Rodríguez (3 assists), A. Gómez (2 assists), David (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo won 7 times, Vasco DA Gama won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from Sao Paulo's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1 / Vasco DA Gama 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Sao Paulo 6, Vasco DA Gama 3
H2H summary: Sao Paulo wins 7, draws 2, Vasco DA Gama wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B