BRAZIL SERIE A
06.09.2026 21:30
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil
Botafogo
Match Timeline
Palmeiras
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Alexander Barboza
Palmeiras
🟨
20'
Arthur Cabral
Botafogo
🟨
24'
Marçal
Botafogo
🔄
63'
Lucas Evangelista ↔ Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
🔄
63'
Mauricio ↔ J. Arias
Palmeiras
🔄
68'
Vitinho ↔ M. Ponte
Botafogo
🔄
68'
L. M. Villalba Jaume ↔ Junior Santos
Botafogo
🔄
73'
Arthur Cabral ↔ K. Barria
Botafogo
🟨
76'
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
🟨
77'
Marlon Freitas
Palmeiras
🔄
78'
A. Montoro ↔ C. Medina
Botafogo
🔄
78'
Danilo Santos ↔ Edenilson
Botafogo
🔄
80'
A. Giay ↔ Khellven
Palmeiras
🔄
80'
Felipe Anderson ↔ E. Martinez
Palmeiras
🔄
88'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Larson
Palmeiras
🟨
90+3'
Alexander Barboza
Palmeiras
🟥
90+3'
Alexander Barboza
Palmeiras

Botafogo vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66.2%
Odds 2.21
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.86
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66.2%
2.21
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.86
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.18
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 30.5%
Draw 3.4%
Palmeiras Win 66.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.19
Palmeiras1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
40 GF / 43 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
57 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
18
BTTS Yes
21
17
Over 2.5
16
5.04
Shots on Goal
4.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 28 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 33 matches
Botafogo Statistic Palmeiras
9 Wins 19
7 Draws 10
12 Losses 4
40 Goals For 57
43 Goals Against 27
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
18 BTTS Yes 21
22 Over 1.5 24
17 Over 2.5 16
9 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 3
5.04 Shots On Goal 4.88
14 Total Shots 15
4.32 Corners 5.82
48.9% Ball Possession 53.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Palmeiras's more proactive style and Botafogo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Palmeiras in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palmeiras having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Palmeiras carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 51 points while Botafogo sit 11 on 30, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Palmeiras.

Botafogo Analysis

From their first 23 matches, Botafogo have collected 30 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 37:37 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 51 points from 24 matches. The record of 15 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 44:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through José Manuel López (7 goals), Mauricio (5 goals), Allan (4 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (10 assists), José Manuel López (3 assists), Allan (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 5 times, Palmeiras won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:22 from Botafogo's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-2-3-1 / Palmeiras 3-4-1-2
Missing players: Botafogo 3, Palmeiras 4
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 5, draws 3, Palmeiras wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 27 10 6 11 33:31 2 36
L D L L W
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B