SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Ibercaja Estadio
Referee: A. Morilla
Zaragoza
Match Timeline
AD Ceuta FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Carlos Hernandez
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
22'
Anuar
AD Ceuta FC
32'
K. de la Fuente · Assist: Anuar
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
42'
M. Aguirregabiria ↔ J. Sebastian
Zaragoza
🔄
43'
H. Pinilla ↔ K. Kodro
Zaragoza
🔄
43'
K. Bare ↔ M. Mensah
Zaragoza
VAR
48'
Yago Cantero
AD Ceuta FC
🟥
49'
Yago Cantero
AD Ceuta FC
57'
R. Gonzalez · Assist: Francho
Zaragoza
🔄
64'
M. Illescas ↔ M. Domenech
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
65'
K. de la Fuente ↔ Youness
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
75'
Rober González
Zaragoza
🔄
76'
J. Larios ↔ D. Tasende
Zaragoza
🔄
80'
Anuar ↔ J. Campana
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
80'
Y. Bodiger ↔ Matos Jose
AD Ceuta FC
VAR
83'
Dani Gómez
Zaragoza
🟨
84'
Jose Matos
AD Ceuta FC
85'
D. Gomez
Zaragoza
🔄
87'
R. Gonzalez ↔ M. A. Cuenca
Zaragoza
🔄
87'
C. Redruello Nimo ↔ K. Zalazar
AD Ceuta FC
89'
M. Fernandez Sanchez · Assist: J. Campana
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
90+2'
Marcos Fernández
AD Ceuta FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Zaragoza Win 47.7%
Draw 0%
AD Ceuta FC Win 52.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Zaragoza1.16
AD Ceuta FC1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Zaragoza Zaragoza
WWDLW
34 GF / 49 GA
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
WLDWL
44 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.51
19
BTTS Yes
19
13
Over 2.5
20
3.58
Shots on Goal
3.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Zaragoza Zaragoza 37 matches
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 37 matches
Zaragoza Statistic AD Ceuta FC
9 Wins 15
10 Draws 7
18 Losses 15
34 Goals For 44
49 Goals Against 56
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.51
19 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 27
13 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 11
3.58 Shots On Goal 3.58
12.06 Total Shots 10.47
4.69 Corners 4.11
46.8% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AD Ceuta FC. AD Ceuta FC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 49 points while Zaragoza sit 19 on 34, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Zaragoza have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Zaragoza expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and AD Ceuta FC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AD Ceuta FC having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Zaragoza Analysis

With 34 points from 35 games and a place of 19, Zaragoza still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 31:47, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Gomez (8 goals), K. Kodro (7 goals), J. El Yamiq (2 goals), with creative support from D. Tasende (4 assists), Martín Aguirregabiria (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

AD Ceuta FC Analysis

From their first 35 matches, AD Ceuta FC have collected 49 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 14 wins, 7 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 42:55 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Fernandez Sanchez (11 goals), Kuki Zalazar (6 goals), Jamelli (5 goals), with creative support from K. Kone (4 assists), Kuki Zalazar (3 assists), Jose Matos (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Zaragoza won 0 times, AD Ceuta FC won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Zaragoza's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Zaragoza 4-2-3-1 / AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
H2H summary: Zaragoza wins 0, draws 1, AD Ceuta FC wins 1
Stats
Zaragoza Zaragoza
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
4
7 Corner Kicks 2
15 Fouls 14
7 Offsides 1
52% Ball Possession 48%
25 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Goal 3
10 Shots off Goal 1
7 Blocked Shots 4
17 Shots insidebox 5
8 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
334 Total passes 325
285 Passes accurate 249
4.14 expected_goals 0.99
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Zaragoza
Formation
AD Ceuta FC
E. Andrada
E. Andrada
M. Aguirregabiria
M. Aguirregabiria
P. Insua
P. Insua
J. El Yamiq
J. El Yamiq
J. Larios
J. Larios
K. Bare
K. Bare
Francho
🎯
Francho
Y. Saidu
Y. Saidu
H. Pinilla
H. Pinilla
D. Gomez
D. Gomez
R. Gonzalez
R. Gonzalez
G. Vallejo
G. Vallejo
A. Caparros
A. Caparros
C. Hernandez
C. Hernandez
Y. Cantero
Y. Cantero
C. Redruello Nimo
C. Redruello Nimo
Anuar
🎯
Anuar
Y. Bodiger
Y. Bodiger
M. Illescas
M. Illescas
A. Ahmed
A. Ahmed
M. Fernandez Sanchez
M. Fernandez Sanchez
K. de la Fuente
K. de la Fuente
Zaragoza 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
1
E. Andrada
G
20
M. Aguirregabiria
↓ 42'
D
4
P. Insua
D
18
J. El Yamiq
D
27
J. Larios
↓ 76'
D
6
K. Bare
↓ 43'
M
14
Francho
🎯 57'
M
33
Y. Saidu
M
31
H. Pinilla
↓ 43'
M
9
D. Gomez
⚽ 85'
F
11
R. Gonzalez
⚽ 57' ↓ 87' 🟨 75'
F
Substitutes
13
A. Rodriguez
G
17
F. Moyano
F
19
K. Kodro
↑ 43'
F
23
M. A. Cuenca
↑ 87'
F
8
T. Moya
M
15
C. Pomares
D
16
A. Radovanovic
D
7
M. Soberon
F
2
J. Sebastian
↑ 42'
D
3
D. Tasende
↑ 76'
D
26
M. Mensah
↑ 43'
M
28
I. Vadillo
F
AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
Starting XI
13
G. Vallejo
G
4
A. Caparros
D
6
C. Hernandez
🟨 20'
D
24
Y. Cantero
🟥 49'
D
16
C. Redruello Nimo
↓ 87'
D
23
Anuar
🎯 32' ↓ 80' 🟨 22'
M
14
Y. Bodiger
↓ 80'
M
12
M. Illescas
↓ 64'
M
7
A. Ahmed
F
9
M. Fernandez Sanchez
⚽ 89' 🟨 90+2'
F
18
K. de la Fuente
⚽ 32' ↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
1
P. Lopez
G
20
J. Campana
🎯 89' ↑ 80'
M
8
K. Zalazar
↑ 87'
F
17
G. Almenara
D
19
Jamelli
F
5
Youness
↑ 65'
M
27
M. Domenech
↑ 64'
F
25
S. Sanchez
F
3
Matos Jose
↑ 80' 🟨 84'
D
11
I. Schor
F
34
A. Betancourt
M
26
A. Bassinga
M
Last matches: Zaragoza
31.05.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Malaga
0
2
L
24.05.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Las Palmas
1
1
D
17.05.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Sporting Gijon
1
3
L
09.05.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Valladolid
0
2
L
01.05.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Granada CF
0
1
L
26.04.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Huesca
0
1
L
11.04.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Cordoba
0
1
L
05.04.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Mirandes
1
2
L
02.04.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Leganes
1
1
D
29.03.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Racing Santander
2
0
W
21.03.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Deportivo La Coruna
1
2
L
14.03.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Almeria
2
0
W
06.03.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Cadiz
1
0
W
28.02.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Burgos
0
1
L
22.02.26
Seg
Zaragoza
FC Andorra
1
2
L
14.02.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Cultural Leonesa
0
0
D
07.02.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Eibar
1
1
D
31.01.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Albacete
0
2
L
25.01.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Castellón
0
0
D
17.01.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Real Sociedad II
1
1
D
Last matches: AD Ceuta FC
30.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
1
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
FC Andorra
2
0
W
16.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
1
4
L
09.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
1
1
D
03.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
26.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Racing Santander
0
0
D
10.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Real Sociedad II
0
0
D
05.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Eibar
0
3
L
01.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Burgos
1
1
D
28.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cadiz
2
1
W
21.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Leganes
2
5
L
14.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Deportivo La Coruna
1
2
L
08.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Las Palmas
0
4
L
01.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Mirandes
1
0
W
25.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cordoba
3
2
W
20.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Granada CF
2
1
W
15.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Huesca
0
2
L
01.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Almeria
2
4
L
26.01.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cultural Leonesa
3
1
W
17.01.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Valladolid
0
3
L
H2H: Zaragoza vs AD Ceuta FC
18.04.26
H2H
Zaragoza
AD Ceuta FC
2
2
D
21.09.25
H2H
AD Ceuta FC
Zaragoza
1
0
L
Last matches: Zaragoza
31.05.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Malaga
0
2
L
17.05.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Sporting Gijon
1
3
L
01.05.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Granada CF
0
1
L
05.04.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Mirandes
1
2
L
29.03.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Racing Santander
2
0
W
14.03.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Almeria
2
0
W
28.02.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Burgos
0
1
L
07.02.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Eibar
1
1
D
25.01.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Castellón
0
0
D
17.01.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Real Sociedad II
1
1
D
04.01.26
Seg
Zaragoza
Las Palmas
1
2
L
13.12.25
Seg
Zaragoza
Cadiz
1
2
L
04.12.25
Cop
Zaragoza
Burgos
0
1
L
30.11.25
Seg
Zaragoza
Leganes
3
2
W
16.11.25
Seg
Zaragoza
Huesca
1
0
W
02.11.25
Seg
Zaragoza
Deportivo La Coruna
0
2
L
18.10.25
Seg
Zaragoza
Cultural Leonesa
0
5
L
05.10.25
Seg
Zaragoza
Cordoba
0
1
L
15.09.25
Seg
Zaragoza
Albacete
0
0
D
06.09.25
Seg
Zaragoza
Valladolid
1
1
D
H2H at home: Zaragoza
18.04.26
H2H
Zaragoza
AD Ceuta FC
2
2
D
Last matches: AD Ceuta FC
24.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
FC Andorra
2
0
W
03.05.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
05.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Eibar
0
3
L
01.04.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Burgos
1
1
D
21.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Leganes
2
5
L
08.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Las Palmas
0
4
L
01.03.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Mirandes
1
0
W
15.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Huesca
0
2
L
01.02.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Almeria
2
4
L
11.01.26
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
1
2
L
21.12.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Real Sociedad II
3
1
W
07.12.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Granada CF
1
1
D
02.12.25
Cop
AD Ceuta FC
Guadalajara
0
1
L
23.11.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Deportivo La Coruna
1
2
L
02.11.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cordoba
0
2
L
29.10.25
Cop
AD Ceuta FC
La Unión Atlético
2
0
W
25.10.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cultural Leonesa
1
0
W
12.10.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
0
0
D
28.09.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Cadiz
0
0
D
14.09.25
Seg
AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
3
3
D
H2H away: AD Ceuta FC
18.04.26
H2H
Zaragoza
AD Ceuta FC
2
2
D

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation