ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Alberto Picco
Referee: R. Abisso
Spezia
Match Timeline
Sudtirol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
M. Valoti
Spezia
20'
E. Pecorino · Assist: M. R. Frigerio
Sudtirol
🟥
23'
Karim Zedadka
Sudtirol
VAR
23'
Karim Zedadka
Sudtirol
25'
G. Di Serio
Spezia
🔄
26'
F. Bandinelli ↔ C. Comotto
Spezia
🔄
28'
D. Crnigoj ↔ S. Davi
Sudtirol
🟨
30'
Silvio Merkaj
Sudtirol
33'
P. Beruatto · Assist: M. Valoti
Spezia
🔄
46'
G. Di Serio ↔ A. Nagy
Spezia
🔄
46'
J. Martini ↔ F. Tait
Sudtirol
🔄
46'
E. Pecorino ↔ D. Casiraghi
Sudtirol
🔄
61'
S. Merkaj ↔ R. Odogwu
Sudtirol
70'
G. Lapadula · Assist: P. Beruatto
Spezia
73'
L. Sernicola
Spezia
🔄
74'
A. Romano ↔ A. Bellemo
Spezia
🔄
74'
L. Sernicola ↔ L. Vignali
Spezia
🔄
77'
M. R. Frigerio ↔ F. Bordon
Sudtirol
82'
G. Aurelio · Assist: M. Valoti
Spezia
🔄
83'
M. Valoti ↔ E. Lorenzelli
Spezia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 67.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
67.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Spezia Win 26.3%
Draw 6.2%
Sudtirol Win 67.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spezia1.04
Sudtirol1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spezia Spezia
WWDLW
35 GF / 54 GA
Sudtirol Sudtirol
WLDWL
37 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
20
BTTS Yes
20
15
Over 2.5
14
3.97
Shots on Goal
3.51

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spezia Spezia 36 matches
Sudtirol Sudtirol 35 matches
Spezia Statistic Sudtirol
7 Wins 8
11 Draws 16
18 Losses 11
35 Goals For 37
54 Goals Against 40
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
20 BTTS Yes 20
27 Over 1.5 25
15 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 12
3.97 Shots On Goal 3.51
11.31 Total Shots 12.17
4.92 Corners 4.29
48.8% Ball Possession 40.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Sudtirol carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 40 points while Spezia sit 20 on 30, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Spezia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sudtirol. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Spezia expected to line up in 3-5-1-1 and Sudtirol in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sudtirol having the stronger overall control.

Spezia Analysis

Spezia sit 20 with 30 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 9 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 32:51 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Artistico (11 goals), G. Aurelio (5 goals), G. Lapadula (3 goals), with creative support from G. Aurelio (3 assists), P. Beruatto (3 assists), V. Vlahovic (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sudtirol Analysis

From their first 34 matches, Sudtirol have collected 40 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 16 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 36:37 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by S. Merkaj (9 goals), E. Pecorino (8 goals), D. Casiraghi (4 goals), with creative support from D. Casiraghi (7 assists), S. Molina (4 assists), R. Odogwu (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Spezia won 3 times, Sudtirol won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:8 from Spezia's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Spezia 3-5-1-1 / Sudtirol 3-5-2
H2H summary: Spezia wins 3, draws 2, Sudtirol wins 1
Stats
Spezia Spezia
Sudtirol Sudtirol
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
3 Corner Kicks 3
16 Fouls 13
4 Offsides 1
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Goal 1
6 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 1
11 Shots insidebox 3
8 Shots outsidebox 2
0 Goalkeeper Saves 3
477 Total passes 227
394 Passes accurate 144
3.49 expected_goals 0.36
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Spezia
Formation
Sudtirol
D. Mascardi
D. Mascardi
A. Mateju
A. Mateju
P. Hristov
P. Hristov
G. Aurelio
G. Aurelio
L. Sernicola
L. Sernicola
F. Bandinelli
F. Bandinelli
A. Romano
A. Romano
M. Valoti
🎯
M. Valoti
P. Beruatto
🎯
P. Beruatto
G. Di Serio
G. Di Serio
G. Lapadula
G. Lapadula
M. Adamonis
M. Adamonis
F. Davi
F. Davi
N. Pietrangeli
N. Pietrangeli
F. Veseli
F. Veseli
S. Molina
S. Molina
J. Martini
J. Martini
D. Crnigoj
D. Crnigoj
M. R. Frigerio
🎯
M. R. Frigerio
K. Zedadka
K. Zedadka
E. Pecorino
E. Pecorino
S. Merkaj
S. Merkaj
Spezia 3-5-2
Starting XI
12
D. Mascardi
G
37
A. Mateju
D
55
P. Hristov
D
31
G. Aurelio
⚽ 82'
D
17
L. Sernicola
⚽ 73' ↓ 74'
M
25
F. Bandinelli
↓ 26'
M
60
A. Romano
↓ 74'
M
5
M. Valoti
⚽ 8' 🎯 33' 🎯 82' ↓ 83'
M
11
P. Beruatto
⚽ 33' 🎯 70'
M
20
G. Di Serio
⚽ 25' ↓ 46'
F
10
G. Lapadula
⚽ 70'
F
Substitutes
22
B. Radunovic
G
16
L. Loria
G
6
A. Bellemo
↑ 74'
M
32
L. Vignali
↑ 74'
D
70
E. Adamo
M
4
M. Ruggero
D
90
L. Skjellerup
F
19
H. Shagaxle
M
77
E. Lorenzelli
↑ 83'
M
8
A. Nagy
↑ 46'
M
24
A. Bertoncini
D
34
C. Comotto
↑ 26'
M
Sudtirol 3-5-2
Starting XI
31
M. Adamonis
G
23
F. Davi
D
19
N. Pietrangeli
D
34
F. Veseli
D
79
S. Molina
M
6
J. Martini
↓ 46'
M
89
D. Crnigoj
↓ 28'
M
26
M. R. Frigerio
🎯 20' ↓ 77'
M
7
K. Zedadka
🟥 23'
M
9
E. Pecorino
⚽ 20' ↓ 46'
F
33
S. Merkaj
↓ 61' 🟨 30'
F
Substitutes
62
D. Theiner
G
1
D. Borra
G
5
A. Masiello
D
90
R. Odogwu
↑ 61'
F
21
F. Tait
↑ 46'
M
18
S. Tronchin
M
3
F. Bordon
↑ 77'
99
S. Verdi
M
17
D. Casiraghi
↑ 46'
M
11
R. Tonin
F
24
S. Davi
↑ 28'
D
4
D. Mancini
D
Last matches: Spezia
08.05.26
Ser
Spezia
Pescara
1
1
D
01.05.26
Ser
Spezia
Venezia
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Spezia
Catanzaro
2
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
Spezia
Mantova
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Spezia
Carrarese
1
3
L
21.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Juve Stabia
1
3
L
17.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Empoli
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Modena
0
3
L
07.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Monza
4
2
W
03.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Padova
2
2
D
28.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Reggiana
0
1
L
21.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Cesena
3
2
W
15.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Frosinone
0
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Bari
0
0
D
07.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Virtus Entella
1
1
D
31.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Sampdoria
0
1
L
24.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Avellino
1
0
W
18.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Palermo
0
1
L
10.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Sudtirol
1
2
L
27.12.25
Ser
Spezia
Pescara
2
1
W
Last matches: Sudtirol
25.07.26
Fri
Sudtirol
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
0
D
22.05.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Bari
0
0
D
15.05.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Bari
0
0
D
08.05.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Juve Stabia
1
1
D
01.05.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Sampdoria
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Mantova
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Modena
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Cesena
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Frosinone
1
3
L
18.03.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Avellino
2
3
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Pescara
0
0
D
07.03.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Virtus Entella
0
1
L
03.03.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Reggiana
4
0
W
28.02.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Venezia
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Palermo
0
3
L
15.02.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Bari
2
1
W
11.02.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Monza
0
0
D
07.02.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Carrarese
0
0
D
31.01.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Catanzaro
2
1
W
25.01.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Padova
3
0
W
H2H: Spezia vs Sudtirol
18.04.26
H2H
Spezia
Sudtirol
6
1
W
10.01.26
H2H
Sudtirol
Spezia
2
1
L
28.02.25
H2H
Sudtirol
Spezia
1
1
D
24.11.24
H2H
Spezia
Sudtirol
3
0
W
09.03.24
H2H
Spezia
Sudtirol
2
1
W
20.08.23
H2H
Sudtirol
Spezia
3
3
D
Last matches: Spezia
01.05.26
Ser
Spezia
Venezia
2
2
D
12.04.26
Ser
Spezia
Mantova
0
2
L
17.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Empoli
1
1
D
07.03.26
Ser
Spezia
Monza
4
2
W
28.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Reggiana
0
1
L
15.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Frosinone
0
2
L
07.02.26
Ser
Spezia
Virtus Entella
1
1
D
24.01.26
Ser
Spezia
Avellino
1
0
W
27.12.25
Ser
Spezia
Pescara
2
1
W
13.12.25
Ser
Spezia
Modena
0
2
L
30.11.25
Ser
Spezia
Sampdoria
1
0
W
07.11.25
Ser
Spezia
Bari
1
1
D
29.10.25
Ser
Spezia
Padova
1
1
D
18.10.25
Ser
Spezia
Cesena
1
2
L
04.10.25
Ser
Spezia
Palermo
1
2
L
20.09.25
Ser
Spezia
Juve Stabia
1
3
L
30.08.25
Ser
Spezia
Catanzaro
0
0
D
24.08.25
Ser
Spezia
Carrarese
0
2
L
18.08.25
Cop
Spezia
Sampdoria
1
1
D
H2H at home: Spezia
18.04.26
H2H
Spezia
Sudtirol
6
1
W
24.11.24
H2H
Spezia
Sudtirol
3
0
W
09.03.24
H2H
Spezia
Sudtirol
2
1
W
Last matches: Sudtirol
15.05.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Bari
0
0
D
01.05.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Sampdoria
0
1
L
06.04.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Cesena
1
1
D
18.03.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Avellino
2
3
L
03.03.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Reggiana
4
0
W
21.02.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Palermo
0
3
L
15.02.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Bari
2
1
W
07.02.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Carrarese
0
0
D
17.01.26
Ser
Sudtirol
Empoli
1
0
W
27.12.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Juve Stabia
0
1
L
21.12.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Virtus Entella
1
1
D
08.12.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Monza
1
1
D
23.11.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Modena
0
0
D
01.11.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Padova
1
1
D
29.10.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Venezia
0
3
L
18.10.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Mantova
1
1
D
01.10.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Pescara
1
1
D
19.09.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Frosinone
2
2
D
24.08.25
Ser
Sudtirol
Catanzaro
1
1
D
16.08.25
Cop
Sudtirol
Como
1
3
L
H2H away: Sudtirol
18.04.26
H2H
Spezia
Sudtirol
6
1
L
24.11.24
H2H
Spezia
Sudtirol
3
0
L
09.03.24
H2H
Spezia
Sudtirol
2
1
L

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation