🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
26.07.2026 02:30
BMO Stadium
Referee: R. Fierro
Los Angeles FC
Match Timeline
Sporting Kansas City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Manu García
Sporting Kansas City
5'
Son Heung-Min
Los Angeles FC
37'
D. Bouanga · Assist: M. Choiniere
Los Angeles FC
45'
D. Martinez · Assist: D. Bouanga
Los Angeles FC
🔄
46'
T. Tillman ↔ E. Segura
Los Angeles FC
🔄
62'
M. Delgado ↔ J. Terry
Los Angeles FC
🔄
62'
S. Afrifa ↔ S. Suleymanov
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
62'
M. Garcia ↔ K. Agyabeng
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
69'
O. Blorian ↔ M. Mosquera
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
75'
Calvin Harris
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
78'
D. Martinez ↔ T. Boyd
Los Angeles FC
🔄
78'
R. Hollingshead ↔ R. Raposo
Los Angeles FC
🔄
85'
Son Heung-Min ↔ J. Ebobisse
Los Angeles FC
85'
D. Bouanga · Assist: T. Boyd
Los Angeles FC

Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.3%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Los Angeles FC Win 85.3%
Draw 5.3%
Sporting Kansas City Win 9.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Los Angeles FC1.93
Sporting Kansas City1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC
WWDLW
53 GF / 30 GA
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WLDWL
23 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.83
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.03
Average Goals Conceded
2.09
14
BTTS Yes
12
17
Over 2.5
16
4.68
Shots on Goal
4.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 29 matches
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 22 matches
Los Angeles FC Statistic Sporting Kansas City
16 Wins 7
7 Draws 2
6 Losses 13
53 Goals For 23
30 Goals Against 46
1.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.03 Avg Goals Conceded 2.09
14 BTTS Yes 12
22 Over 1.5 18
17 Over 2.5 16
9 Over 3.5 8
14 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 8
4.68 Shots On Goal 4.13
13.24 Total Shots 9.56
5.56 Corners 3.75
47% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Los Angeles FC's more proactive style and Sporting Kansas City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sporting Kansas City. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Los Angeles FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Sporting Kansas City in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sporting Kansas City having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Los Angeles FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 27 points compared to Sporting Kansas City in 15 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Los Angeles FC Analysis

With 27 points from 16 games and a place of 3, Los Angeles FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 27:17, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Denis Bouanga (6 goals), David Martínez Morales (3 goals), Son Heung-min (1 goals), with creative support from Son Heung-min (6 assists), Jacob Shaffelburg (2 assists), Denis Bouanga (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

With 11 points from 15 games and a place of 15, Sporting Kansas City still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 16:39 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Dejan Joveljić (3 goals), Calvin Harris (2 goals), Capita (2 goals), with creative support from Manu García (3 assists), Calvin Harris (2 assists), Dejan Joveljić (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Los Angeles FC won 11 times, Sporting Kansas City won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 36:13 from Los Angeles FC's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Los Angeles FC 4-3-3 / Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
H2H summary: Los Angeles FC wins 11, draws 2, Sporting Kansas City wins 2

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)