LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Jana Skredela stadions

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 79.7%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.82
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
79.7%
1.30
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.82
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.53
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
84.3%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Super Nova Win 15.7%
Draw 4.6%
Riga Win 79.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Super Nova1.1
Riga2.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Super Nova Super Nova
WWDLW
32 GF / 45 GA
Riga Riga
WLDWL
103 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
2.71
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
18
BTTS Yes
24
16
Over 2.5
30
0
Shots on Goal
2.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Super Nova Super Nova 28 matches
Riga Riga 38 matches
Super Nova Statistic Riga
9 Wins 28
4 Draws 6
15 Losses 4
32 Goals For 103
45 Goals Against 40
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 2.71
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
18 BTTS Yes 24
23 Over 1.5 35
16 Over 2.5 30
5 Over 3.5 21
5 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 2.71
0 Total Shots 8
0 Corners 3
0% Ball Possession 25.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Riga's more proactive style and Super Nova's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Riga look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Super Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Riga in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Riga having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Riga. Riga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 58 points while Super Nova sit 7 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Super Nova Analysis

With 24 points from 22 games and a place of 7, Super Nova still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 3 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 23:35 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Riga Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 58 points from 23 games, Riga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 18 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, with a 68:20 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Super Nova won 0 times, Riga won 13 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:48 from Super Nova's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 4.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Super Nova 4-2-3-1 / Riga 3-5-2
H2H summary: Super Nova wins 0, draws 1, Riga wins 13
Last matches: Super Nova
09.08.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
Last matches: Riga
13.08.26
UEF
Riga
Gyori ETO FC
1
1
D
09.08.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
06.08.26
UEF
Riga
Gyori ETO FC
1
0
W
02.08.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
4
0
W
28.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
5
2
W
22.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
3
2
W
18.07.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
14.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
3
2
W
07.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
29.06.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
H2H: Super Nova vs Riga
24.05.26
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
L
14.04.26
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
30.08.25
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
2
6
L
22.06.25
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
L
01.05.25
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
5
L
06.03.25
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
L
29.10.23
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
1
1
D
06.08.23
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
5
L
31.05.23
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
5
1
L
20.04.23
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
0
4
L
30.09.22
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
17.07.22
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
1
0
L
10.05.22
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
01.04.22
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
L
Last matches: Super Nova
09.08.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
15.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
H2H at home: Super Nova
14.04.26
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
30.08.25
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
2
6
L
01.05.25
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
5
L
06.08.23
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
5
L
20.04.23
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
0
4
L
30.09.22
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
10.05.22
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
Last matches: Riga
13.08.26
UEF
Riga
Gyori ETO FC
1
1
D
22.07.26
UEF
Riga
Vardar Skopje
3
2
W
07.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
29.06.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
13.06.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
18.04.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
14.04.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
4
1
W
04.04.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
8
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Riga
Legia Warszawa
1
3
L
20.03.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
1
W
07.03.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
24.02.26
Fri
Riga
Flora Tallinn
3
0
W
12.02.26
Fri
Riga
LNZ Cherkasy
3
1
W
05.02.26
Fri
Riga
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
Riga
Dubai United
2
1
W
21.08.25
UEF
Riga
Sparta Praha
0
2
L
H2H away: Riga
14.04.26
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
W
30.08.25
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
2
6
W
01.05.25
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
5
W
06.08.23
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
5
W
20.04.23
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
0
4
W
30.09.22
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
W
10.05.22
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
W
Showing odds from: Unibet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 7.50
Draw 4.75
Away 1.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.15
Under 1.5 4.25
Over 2.5 1.53
Under 2.5 2.23
Over 3.5 2.32
Under 3.5 1.49
Over 4.5 3.90
Under 4.5 1.18

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 21 2 2 62:17 45 65
W W W D W
2
Riga Away
25 20 4 1 76:21 55 64
W W W W W
3 24 14 4 6 39:26 13 46
W W D L D
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 25 10 4 11 33:37 -4 34
W L W L W
6 24 8 3 13 26:37 -11 27
L W L W L
7 26 6 7 13 25:44 -19 25
L L L L L
8 26 4 9 13 18:47 -29 21
L L D L W
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 25 3 5 17 24:65 -41 14
L D L W L