Santos vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
95.9%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
71.2%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
84.7%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Santos
21 matches
Atletico Paranaense
23 matches
| Santos | Statistic | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 11 |
| 7 | Draws | 4 |
| 8 | Losses | 8 |
| 32 | Goals For | 29 |
| 33 | Goals Against | 22 |
| 1.52 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.26 |
| 1.57 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.96 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 11 |
| 19 | Over 1.5 | 15 |
| 14 | Over 2.5 | 10 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 2 | Failed To Score | 7 |
| 3.8 | Shots On Goal | 4.52 |
| 12.75 | Total Shots | 11.9 |
| 5.35 | Corners | 4.81 |
| 49.3% | Ball Possession | 47.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Santos's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Paranaense. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Atletico Paranaense look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santos expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control. Atletico Paranaense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 37 points while Santos sit 15 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Santos sit 15 with 22 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 29:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals), Neymar (6 goals), Álvaro Barreal (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Miguelito (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Operating from 3 place with 37 points from 21 games, Atletico Paranaense bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 11 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 28:19, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Viveros (12 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), João Cruz (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santos won 5 times, Atletico Paranaense won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:17 from Santos's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 53:22 | 31 | 57 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 2 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 3 |
Atletico Paranaense
Away
|
27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:31 | 10 | 46 |
D
L
D
W
D
|
| 4 | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42:33 | 9 | 46 |
W
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41:35 | 6 | 45 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39:39 | 0 | 42 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 35:31 | 4 | 39 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37:38 | -1 | 38 |
D
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32:29 | 3 | 36 |
D
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 10 |
Santos
Home
|
26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39:39 | 0 | 35 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
| 11 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31:30 | 1 | 33 |
L
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 12 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27:39 | -12 | 33 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28:29 | -1 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 38:41 | -3 | 32 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 15 | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 31:42 | -11 | 29 |
D
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 16 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28:35 | -7 | 28 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29:41 | -12 | 28 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30:35 | -5 | 28 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 19 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 31:45 | -14 | 23 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 20 | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28:52 | -24 | 17 |
L
W
L
W
D
|