BRAZIL SERIE A
09.08.2026 21:30
Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein
Santos
Match Timeline
Atletico Paranaense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
K. Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
20'
Adonis Frías
Santos
26'
K. Viveros · Assist: Joao Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
34'
Kevin Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
G. Caballero ↔ B. Rollheiser
Santos
🔄
60'
Leozinho ↔ K. A. Calderon Vargas
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
60'
Jadson ↔ Felipinho
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
61'
C. Oliva ↔ Rony
Santos
🔄
61'
Gilberto ↔ Dantas
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
71'
Luiz Gustavo ↔ Diogo Riquelme
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
79'
Joao Schmidt ↔ Willian Arao
Santos
🔄
80'
Gabriel Menino ↔ Thaciano
Santos
🔄
85'
Joao Cruz ↔ Dudu Kogitzki
Atletico Paranaense

Santos vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.9%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.9%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santos Win 45.8%
Draw 4.1%
Atletico Paranaense Win 50.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos1.3
Atletico Paranaense1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santos Santos
WWDLW
32 GF / 33 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
29 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
15
BTTS Yes
11
14
Over 2.5
10
3.8
Shots on Goal
4.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santos Santos 21 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 23 matches
Santos Statistic Atletico Paranaense
6 Wins 11
7 Draws 4
8 Losses 8
32 Goals For 29
33 Goals Against 22
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
15 BTTS Yes 11
19 Over 1.5 15
14 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 7
3.8 Shots On Goal 4.52
12.75 Total Shots 11.9
5.35 Corners 4.81
49.3% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Santos's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Paranaense. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Atletico Paranaense look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santos expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control. Atletico Paranaense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 37 points while Santos sit 15 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 15 with 22 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 29:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals), Neymar (6 goals), Álvaro Barreal (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Miguelito (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 37 points from 21 games, Atletico Paranaense bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 11 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 28:19, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Viveros (12 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), João Cruz (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santos won 5 times, Atletico Paranaense won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:17 from Santos's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Santos 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Santos wins 5, draws 3, Atletico Paranaense wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B