POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
15.09.2026 18:30
Exbud Arena
Referee: Damian Kos, Poland
Korona Kielce
Match Timeline
Gornik Zabrze
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
41'
Peter Federico · Assist: J. Kubicki
Gornik Zabrze
🟨
53'
Erik Prekop
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
62'
M. Remacle ↔ C. Mena
Korona Kielce
🔄
64'
E. Janza ↔ O. Zmrzly
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
70'
O. Lingr ↔ S. Gustafson
Korona Kielce
🔄
70'
M. Ameyaw ↔ M. Fassbender
Korona Kielce
🔄
71'
P. Bernardo ↔ M. Hojholt
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
71'
E. Prekop ↔ S. Liseth
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
84'
J. Kubicki ↔ L. Sadilek
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
84'
M. Khlan ↔ J. Antiste
Gornik Zabrze
🟨
88'
Ariel Mosór
Korona Kielce
🔄
88'
P. Hellebrand ↔ D. Bak
Korona Kielce
🟨
89'
Kamil Jakubczyk
Korona Kielce
90'
Peter Federico · Assist: S. Liseth
Gornik Zabrze

Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.4%
Odds 2.66
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.98
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.4%
2.66
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.98
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.19
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Korona Kielce Win 33.3%
Draw 5.3%
Gornik Zabrze Win 61.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Korona Kielce1.22
Gornik Zabrze1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
WWDLW
19 GF / 9 GA
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze
WLDWL
32 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.52
0.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
6
BTTS Yes
14
4
Over 2.5
13
4.14
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 15 matches
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 21 matches
Korona Kielce Statistic Gornik Zabrze
7 Wins 12
6 Draws 3
2 Losses 6
19 Goals For 32
9 Goals Against 24
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
0.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
6 BTTS Yes 14
10 Over 1.5 16
4 Over 2.5 13
2 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 3
4.14 Shots On Goal 4
14 Total Shots 10.38
4 Corners 4.77
45.7% Ball Possession 38.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 15 points while Korona Kielce sit 9 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gornik Zabrze. Gornik Zabrze look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Korona Kielce expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gornik Zabrze in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gornik Zabrze having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Korona Kielce Analysis

So far, Korona Kielce have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 9 points from 6 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 7:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Stępiński (3 goals), M. Faßbender (1 goals), O. Lingr (1 goals), with creative support from W. Długosz (3 assists), M. Remacle (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Gornik Zabrze Analysis

Gornik Zabrze approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 15 points after 6 outings. The return of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 12:7, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through K. Urbański (3 goals), Peter (2 goals), Josema Sánchez (1 goals), with creative support from Josema Sánchez (1 assists), R. Janicki (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Korona Kielce won 1 times, Gornik Zabrze won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:26 from Korona Kielce's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Korona Kielce 4-2-3-1 / Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3
H2H summary: Korona Kielce wins 1, draws 5, Gornik Zabrze wins 8

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 16:8 8 22
D W W W W
2 9 5 4 0 19:8 11 19
W D W D D
3 8 6 1 1 17:7 10 19
W L W W W
4 9 5 2 2 17:12 5 17
W W D W D
5 8 4 3 1 12:6 6 15
W W D D D
6 9 4 3 2 12:10 2 15
W L W D W
7 9 4 3 2 11:10 1 15
L W W D D
8 9 4 1 4 16:15 1 13
L W W W D
9 8 4 0 4 16:13 3 12
W L L W W
10 8 4 0 4 12:13 -1 12
L L W L W
11 8 3 2 3 9:12 -3 11
W W D L L
12 9 1 6 2 13:13 0 9
D D D L D
13 9 2 2 5 9:14 -5 8
L L L L W
14 9 2 2 5 7:20 -13 8
L L D W D
15 9 1 3 5 11:15 -4 6
L L L D D
16 9 1 3 5 9:15 -6 6
D L L L D
17 8 1 2 5 11:17 -6 5
D L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 12:21 -9 3
L L W L L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation