BRAZIL SERIE A
23.08.2026 19:00
Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques
Referee: Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil
RB Bragantino
Match Timeline
Gremio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
15'
José Herrera
RB Bragantino
🟨
24'
Juninho Capixaba
RB Bragantino
🟨
45+3'
Erick Noriega
Gremio
🔄
46'
Tete ↔ C. Pavon
Gremio
🔄
64'
Eric Ramires ↔ Fabinho
RB Bragantino
🔄
64'
J. Herrera ↔ H. Mosquera
RB Bragantino
🔄
64'
F. Amuzu ↔ J. Cabral
Gremio
🟨
72'
Agustin Sant Anna
RB Bragantino
🔄
72'
Lucas Barbosa ↔ Eduardo Sasha
RB Bragantino
🟨
76'
Weverton
Gremio
🟨
86'
Wallace
Gremio
🔄
86'
Rodriguinho ↔ Gustavo Neves
RB Bragantino
🔄
86'
Vinicinho ↔ Yuri Alves
RB Bragantino
🔄
88'
F. Krovinovic ↔ Carlos Vinicius
Gremio
🔄
90+2'
E. Noriega ↔ Danilo Barbosa
Gremio
90'
Gustavo Marques · Assist: Gustavo Neves
RB Bragantino

RB Bragantino vs Gremio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68%
-
BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
RB Bragantino Win 68%
Draw 5.1%
Gremio Win 27%
Expected Goals (xG)
RB Bragantino1.3
Gremio1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
WWDLW
29 GF / 24 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
30 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
11
BTTS Yes
16
9
Over 2.5
13
4.86
Shots on Goal
3.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 23 matches
Gremio Gremio 25 matches
RB Bragantino Statistic Gremio
10 Wins 8
5 Draws 7
8 Losses 10
29 Goals For 30
24 Goals Against 34
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
11 BTTS Yes 16
18 Over 1.5 20
9 Over 2.5 13
2 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 7
4.86 Shots On Goal 3.64
15.73 Total Shots 11.18
5.45 Corners 4.36
49.9% Ball Possession 49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between RB Bragantino's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with RB Bragantino expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gremio. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

RB Bragantino Analysis

RB Bragantino sit 7 with 32 points after 22 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 27:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Isidro Pitta (6 goals), Lucas Barbosa (4 goals), Juninho Capixaba (2 goals), with creative support from Henry Mosquera (3 assists), Isidro Pitta (2 assists), Lucas Barbosa (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio sit 14 with 25 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 24:27, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, RB Bragantino won 6 times, Gremio won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:12 from RB Bragantino's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1 / Gremio 4-1-4-1
Missing players: RB Bragantino 3, Gremio 4
H2H summary: RB Bragantino wins 6, draws 4, Gremio wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
4 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
5 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B