BRAZIL SERIE A
10.05.2026 21:30
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: F. Fernandes de Lima
Mirassol
Match Timeline
Chapecoense-sc
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
13'
Andre Luis ↔ Everton Galdino
Mirassol
🟨
18'
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
32'
Everton
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
32'
Victor Caetano
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
39'
Igor Formiga ↔ Daniel Borges
Mirassol
🔄
46'
Carlos Eduardo ↔ Nathan Fogaca
Mirassol
🔄
54'
Marcinho ↔ Mauricio Garcez
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
66'
Yannick Bolasie
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
66'
Denilson ↔ Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
66'
Shaylon ↔ A. Galeano
Mirassol
🔄
70'
Joao Vitor ↔ Rafael Carvalheira
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
70'
Y. Bolasie ↔ Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
71'
Eduardo · Assist: Willian Machado
Mirassol
🟨
74'
José Aldo
Mirassol
🔄
79'
Victor Caetano ↔ Jean Carlos
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
79'
Enio ↔ Italo
Chapecoense-sc
81'
Joao Victor
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
90+7'
João Paulo
Chapecoense-sc

Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 100%
Draw 0%
Chapecoense-sc Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol1.51
Chapecoense-sc1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
20 GF / 21 GA
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WLDWL
13 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
2
8
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
6
4.59
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 17 matches
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 13 matches
Mirassol Statistic Chapecoense-sc
6 Wins 1
3 Draws 5
8 Losses 7
20 Goals For 13
21 Goals Against 26
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 2
8 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 5
4.59 Shots On Goal 3
13.65 Total Shots 12.77
5.65 Corners 4.15
52.2% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chapecoense-sc. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mirassol expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Chapecoense-sc in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chapecoense-sc having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Mirassol Analysis

With 12 points from 13 games and a place of 18, Mirassol still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 15:19 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Igor Formiga (3 goals), Nathan Fogaça (2 goals), Negueba (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), C. Cuesta (1 assists), Carlos Eduardo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

With 8 points from 13 games and a place of 20, Chapecoense-sc still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 13:26, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through W. Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), Eduardo Doma (1 goals), with creative support from Jean Carlos (2 assists), W. Clar (1 assists), Marcinho (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 4 times, Chapecoense-sc won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:1 from Mirassol's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 4-2-3-1 / Chapecoense-sc 3-4-3
Missing players: Mirassol 4, Chapecoense-sc 4
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 4, draws 1, Chapecoense-sc wins 0

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5 25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 25 10 7 8 33:33 0 37
W W D W L
8 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
9 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 25 5 8 12 30:42 -12 23
L L D D L
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B