COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
26.09.2026 01:15
Estadio Palogrande

Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.5%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
74.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Once Caldas Win 43.5%
Draw 7.5%
Bucaramanga Win 49%
Expected Goals (xG)
Once Caldas1.28
Bucaramanga1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WWDLW
47 GF / 38 GA
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga
WLDWL
41 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
23
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
14
5.68
Shots on Goal
4.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Once Caldas Once Caldas 33 matches
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 29 matches
Once Caldas Statistic Bucaramanga
11 Wins 9
15 Draws 13
7 Losses 7
47 Goals For 41
38 Goals Against 31
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
23 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 8
5.68 Shots On Goal 4.07
15.19 Total Shots 12.46
5.13 Corners 3.89
53.3% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Once Caldas expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Bucaramanga in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bucaramanga having the stronger overall control. Once Caldas arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 33 points compared to Bucaramanga in 13 on 23, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Bucaramanga. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Once Caldas Analysis

Placed 5 with 33 points from 19 outings, Once Caldas continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 31:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Moreno (12 goals), J. Zapata (11 goals), Pipe Gómez (4 goals), with creative support from J. Cuesta (8 assists), A. Correa (4 assists), Pipe Gómez (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Bucaramanga Analysis

So far, Bucaramanga have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 23 points from 19 matches. The record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 26:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Pons (10 goals), E. Batalla (8 goals), F. Sambueza (5 goals), with creative support from F. Sambueza (6 assists), E. Batalla (4 assists), L. Pons (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Once Caldas won 6 times, Bucaramanga won 1 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:10 from Once Caldas's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.5%)
Predicted formations: Once Caldas 4-3-3 / Bucaramanga 3-4-3
H2H summary: Once Caldas wins 6, draws 8, Bucaramanga wins 1

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W W D L D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W D W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L W W D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L W D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W D D L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W D D L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
D L W W L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D L D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W D D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W W D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L D L W
Post season qualification