MEXICO LIGA MX
26.09.2026 01:00
Estadio Banorte

Atlante FC vs Monterrey Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.5%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atlante FC Win 29.9%
Draw 6.6%
Monterrey Win 63.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlante FC1.14
Monterrey1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlante FC Atlante FC
WWDLW
15 GF / 22 GA
Monterrey Monterrey
WLDWL
30 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
9
BTTS Yes
10
5
Over 2.5
8
4.33
Shots on Goal
6.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlante FC Atlante FC 13 matches
Monterrey Monterrey 16 matches
Atlante FC Statistic Monterrey
1 Wins 8
8 Draws 4
4 Losses 4
15 Goals For 30
22 Goals Against 18
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
9 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 14
5 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
4.33 Shots On Goal 6.17
15 Total Shots 17.25
4.56 Corners 5.75
41.7% Ball Possession 56.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Monterrey's more proactive style and Atlante FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Monterrey. Monterrey carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 10 points while Atlante FC sit 15 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlante FC expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Monterrey in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Monterrey having the stronger overall control.

Atlante FC Analysis

Atlante FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 7 points from 8 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 7:12, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Julio (1 goals), Walter Portales (1 goals), L. Calzadilla (1 goals), with creative support from J. Julio (3 assists), Walter Portales (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Monterrey Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Monterrey have collected 10 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 13:10 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Ocampos (4 goals), D. Rossi (1 goals), J. Corona (1 goals), with creative support from L. Ocampos (1 assists), D. Rossi (1 assists), Óliver Torres (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Atlante FC won 0 times, Monterrey won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Atlante FC's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Atlante FC 5-3-2 / Monterrey 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atlante FC wins 0, draws 1, Monterrey wins 0

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 18:6 12 19
W W W W D
2 9 5 3 1 17:8 9 18
D W W D W
3 8 5 2 1 17:8 9 17
D L W W W
4 9 5 0 4 16:15 1 15
L W W W L
5 9 4 2 3 11:11 0 14
D L W L W
6 9 4 2 3 13:15 -2 14
D L D L W
7 8 4 1 3 14:10 4 13
W D L L W
8 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
10 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
11 9 3 3 3 12:13 -1 12
D L W L D
12 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
13 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
W L L W D
14 9 1 5 3 8:13 -5 8
D L D D L
15 9 2 2 5 10:16 -6 8
L L D L D
16 9 1 4 4 9:13 -4 7
L D D D W
17 8 1 1 6 6:13 -7 4
W L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 6:23 -17 3
W L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)