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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
14.10.2026 01:30
Estadio El Campin
Referee: Jose Bautista

Millonarios vs Once Caldas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.2%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.91
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.2%
1.28 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.91 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.24 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
19.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Millonarios Win 52%
Draw 5.8%
Once Caldas Win 42.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millonarios1.28
Once Caldas1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millonarios Millonarios
WWDLW
50 GF / 39 GA
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WLDWL
50 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
20
BTTS Yes
25
16
Over 2.5
15
5.76
Shots on Goal
5.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Millonarios Millonarios 37 matches
Once Caldas Once Caldas 36 matches
Millonarios Statistic Once Caldas
12 Wins 12
13 Draws 16
12 Losses 8
50 Goals For 50
39 Goals Against 42
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
20 BTTS Yes 25
27 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 8
12 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 6
5.76 Shots On Goal 5.68
15.12 Total Shots 14.97
5.7 Corners 5.21
49.1% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Once Caldas arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Millonarios expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Once Caldas in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Once Caldas having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Once Caldas. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Millonarios Analysis

So far, Millonarios have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 31:23 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Estupiñán (15 goals), R. Contreras (10 goals), L. Castro (9 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Valencia Isaza (4 assists), A. Estupiñán (3 assists), F. Chaverra (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Once Caldas Analysis

With 33 points from 19 games and a place of 5, Once Caldas still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses, together with goals at 31:22, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Moreno (13 goals), J. Zapata (12 goals), Pipe Gómez (4 goals), with creative support from J. Cuesta (8 assists), A. Roa (4 assists), A. Correa (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Millonarios won 5 times, Once Caldas won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Millonarios's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Millonarios 4-1-3-2 / Once Caldas 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Millonarios wins 5, draws 6, Once Caldas wins 4

Standings

Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 8 3 2 25:9 16 27
L W W D L
2 13 7 4 2 20:9 11 25
D W W W W
3 12 6 6 0 21:11 10 24
D W W W D
4 11 7 2 2 21:10 11 23
D W D L W
5 13 7 2 4 21:17 4 23
W L D L W
6 12 6 4 2 19:12 7 22
W W L W W
7 14 5 7 2 19:12 7 22
D D D W W
8 14 5 5 4 17:16 1 20
L D D D D
9 13 5 3 5 16:19 -3 18
W W W L L
10 13 4 4 5 16:16 0 16
W D L L W
11 13 3 7 3 17:18 -1 16
D D W L L
12 13 4 2 7 15:17 -2 14
L L L W L
13 14 2 8 4 16:20 -4 14
D D D L L
14 12 3 3 6 10:19 -9 12
L D W L L
15 13 3 3 7 14:26 -12 12
D L W L W
16 13 2 5 6 19:23 -4 11
D D L L W
17 13 1 8 4 14:19 -5 11
D D D L D
18 12 2 4 6 14:22 -8 10
W L L L D
19 13 1 7 5 8:18 -10 10
D D L L D
20 12 2 3 7 9:18 -9 9
D L W W D
Post season qualification