BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: B. Arleu
Gremio
Match Timeline
Santos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Igor Vinícius
Santos
🟨
29'
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
32'
Gabriel Barbosa · Assist: Miguelito
Santos
40'
Carlos Vinicius · Assist: F. Amuzu
Gremio
🟨
45'
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
Santos
🔄
46'
E. Noriega ↔ Arthur Melo
Gremio
55'
Gabriel Barbosa · Assist: Gabriel Bontempo
Santos
🔄
56'
J. Enamorado ↔ Tete
Gremio
59'
Carlos Vinicius · Assist: C. Pavon
Gremio
63'
Tete · Assist: C. Pavon
Gremio
🔄
82'
Willian Arao ↔ L. Diaz
Santos
🔄
82'
Rony ↔ J. Robinho
Santos
🔄
83'
Carlos Vinicius ↔ Wagner Leonardo
Gremio
🟨
84'
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
Santos
🟥
84'
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
Santos
🔄
88'
Gabriel Barbosa ↔ Moises
Santos
🔄
88'
Miguelito ↔ S. Pierri
Santos
🔄
90+1'
C. Pavon ↔ Marcos Rocha
Gremio
🔄
90+2'
Igor Vinicius ↔ D. Fernandes
Santos

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
69.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 60.5%
Draw 9.4%
Santos Win 30.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.22
Santos1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
16 GF / 18 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
21 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
8
BTTS Yes
11
5
Over 2.5
9
3.56
Shots on Goal
3.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 16 matches
Santos Santos 16 matches
Gremio Statistic Santos
4 Wins 4
6 Draws 6
6 Losses 6
16 Goals For 21
18 Goals Against 25
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
8 BTTS Yes 11
11 Over 1.5 14
5 Over 2.5 9
1 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 2
3.56 Shots On Goal 3.25
11.38 Total Shots 12.13
3.63 Corners 5.25
49.9% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Santos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santos having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Santos. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Gremio Analysis

With 18 points from 16 games and a place of 15, Gremio still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 16:18 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 16 with 18 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 21:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Barbosa (4 goals), Neymar (4 goals), Benjamín Rollheiser (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Moises (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 5 times, Santos won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:21 from Gremio's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 3-4-3 / Santos 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Gremio 8, Santos 7
H2H summary: Gremio wins 5, draws 5, Santos wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5 25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 25 10 7 8 33:33 0 37
W W D W L
8 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
9 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 25 5 8 12 30:42 -12 23
L L D D L
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B