BRAZIL SERIE A
24.05.2026 00:00
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Palmeiras
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
21'
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🟨
29'
Lucas Paqueta
Flamengo
🟨
32'
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
38'
J. Lopez · Assist: Allan Elias
Palmeiras
🟨
40'
J. Lopez
Palmeiras
🔄
46'
Evertton Araujo ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
57'
Allan Elias
Palmeiras
🟨
61'
J. Arias
Palmeiras
🟨
65'
Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
68'
Samuel Lino ↔ G. Plata
Flamengo
🟨
72'
Carlos Miguel
Palmeiras
🔄
75'
J. Arias ↔ Felipe Anderson
Palmeiras
🔄
75'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Mauricio
Palmeiras
🔄
81'
Lucas Paqueta ↔ N. de la Cruz
Flamengo
🔄
81'
Allan Elias ↔ Paulinho
Palmeiras
🔄
81'
Arthur Gabriel ↔ Jefte
Palmeiras
🟨
87'
A. Giay
Palmeiras
🔄
87'
Jorginho ↔ S. Niguez
Flamengo
🔄
87'
Pedro ↔ Wallace Yan
Flamengo
🟨
90+2'
N. de la Cruz
Flamengo
🟨
90+8'
Paulinho
Palmeiras
🟨
90+10'
Wallace Yan
Flamengo
🟨
90+10'
Leo Pereira
Flamengo
🔄
90+1'
J. Lopez ↔ Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras
90'
Paulinho · Assist: Jefte
Palmeiras

Flamengo vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 55%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
55%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 61.2%
Draw 0%
Palmeiras Win 38.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.46
Palmeiras1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
36 GF / 15 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
32 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
1.52
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
10
BTTS Yes
14
10
Over 2.5
9
5.32
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 19 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 21 matches
Flamengo Statistic Palmeiras
12 Wins 12
5 Draws 7
2 Losses 2
36 Goals For 32
15 Goals Against 17
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
10 BTTS Yes 14
17 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 2
5.32 Shots On Goal 4.67
14.42 Total Shots 14.48
4.16 Corners 6.57
55% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Flamengo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Palmeiras in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palmeiras having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Palmeiras. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 31 points after 15 matches. With 9 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 28:13, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Pedro (9 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (3 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (5 assists), Pedro (3 assists), Guillermo Varela (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Palmeiras Analysis

Placed 1 with 35 points from 16 outings, Palmeiras continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 26:13 goal balance, points toward mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Lopez (5 goals), Allan Elias (3 goals), G. Gomez (3 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (9 assists), J. Lopez (3 assists), Allan Elias (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 6 times, Palmeiras won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:16 from Flamengo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Palmeiras 4-4-2
Missing players: Flamengo 4, Palmeiras 6
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 6, draws 5, Palmeiras wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B