Puebla vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home or Draw |
62.9%
|
2.20 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
71.2%
|
1.62 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
64.5%
|
1.60 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.17 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
8.00 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
15.00 |
Probability Distribution
Puebla Win 44.2%
Draw 18.7%
Toluca Win 37.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Puebla1.53
Toluca2.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Puebla
WWDLW
18 GF / 16 GA
Toluca
WLDWL
39 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.8
Average Goals Scored
2.44
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
7
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
12
4.86
Shots on Goal
6.5
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Puebla
10 matches
Toluca
16 matches
| Puebla | Statistic | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 9 |
| 1 | Draws | 3 |
| 3 | Losses | 4 |
| 18 | Goals For | 39 |
| 16 | Goals Against | 18 |
| 1.8 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.44 |
| 1.6 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.13 |
| 7 | BTTS Yes | 9 |
| 8 | Over 1.5 | 14 |
| 6 | Over 2.5 | 12 |
| 5 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 2 |
| 4.86 | Shots On Goal | 6.5 |
| 13.29 | Total Shots | 18.29 |
| 4.71 | Corners | 5 |
| 39.3% | Ball Possession | 59.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Puebla won 4 times, Toluca won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:24 from Puebla's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.
1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.3%)
Predicted formations: Puebla 4-2-3-1 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Puebla wins 4, draws 6, Toluca wins 5
Standings
Liga MX: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Toluca
Away
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17:6 | 11 | 16 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
| 2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 9 | 16 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16:14 | 2 | 15 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:6 | 6 | 14 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 13 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:8 | 2 | 13 |
L
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 7 |
Puebla
Home
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 1 | 13 |
W
L
W
W
D
|
| 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 13 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:8 | 5 | 11 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:9 | 2 | 11 |
W
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13:10 | 3 | 10 |
D
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:9 | 0 | 10 |
L
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 13 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:13 | -4 | 8 |
L
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 7 |
D
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7:12 | -5 | 7 |
L
D
D
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8:13 | -5 | 6 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4:12 | -8 | 1 |
L
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3:21 | -18 | 0 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)