COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
16.09.2026 00:30
Estadio La Independencia

Chico vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.3%
Odds 2.31
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.72
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.3%
2.31
BTTS No
50.8%
1.72
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.47
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.64
Correct Score 3-0
-
20.00
Probability Distribution
Chico Win 62.3%
Draw 10.1%
Alianza Valledupar Win 27.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chico1.1
Alianza Valledupar1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chico Chico
WWDLW
21 GF / 45 GA
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar
WLDWL
20 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
0.71
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
6
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
10
3
Shots on Goal
2.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chico Chico 26 matches
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 28 matches
Chico Statistic Alianza Valledupar
7 Wins 4
4 Draws 11
15 Losses 13
21 Goals For 20
45 Goals Against 43
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 0.71
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
6 BTTS Yes 13
18 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 6
15 Failed To Score 12
3 Shots On Goal 2.81
9.5 Total Shots 11
3.73 Corners 4.11
44.2% Ball Possession 44.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chico expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Alianza Valledupar in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Valledupar having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Alianza Valledupar. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Chico have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Chico Analysis

Chico sit 18 with 17 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 15:32 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Valledupar Analysis

Alianza Valledupar approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 17 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats with a 13:27 goal balance points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they depend heavily on C. Vergara (1 goals), with creative support from J. Lasso (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Chico won 5 times, Alianza Valledupar won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:14 from Chico's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.23 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: Chico 4-4-2 / Alianza Valledupar 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Chico wins 5, draws 4, Alianza Valledupar wins 4

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18
Chico Home
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification