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ESTONIA › MEISTRILIIGA
14.10.2026 16:00
Paide linnastaadion
Referee: K. Tohver

Paide vs Tammeka Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.1%
Odds 1.18
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.1%
1.18 ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.48 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.08 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.40 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 44.2%
Draw 8.9%
Tammeka Win 46.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.58
Tammeka1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
70 GF / 57 GA
Tammeka Tammeka
WLDWL
54 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
29
BTTS Yes
17
23
Over 2.5
21
0.6
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 44 matches
Tammeka Tammeka 36 matches
Paide Statistic Tammeka
21 Wins 18
10 Draws 3
13 Losses 15
70 Goals For 54
57 Goals Against 56
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
29 BTTS Yes 17
34 Over 1.5 26
23 Over 2.5 21
16 Over 3.5 15
10 Clean Sheets 12
5 Failed To Score 9
0.6 Shots On Goal 0
2 Total Shots 0
1 Corners 0
12.2% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Paide's more proactive style and Tammeka's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tammeka. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tammeka having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Tammeka arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Paide Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 51 points from 29 games, Paide bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 15 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, with a 48:36 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Tammeka Analysis

With 44 points from 29 games and a place of 5, Tammeka still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 14 wins, 2 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 37:47 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 11 times, Tammeka won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:9 from Paide's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.1%)
H2H summary: Paide wins 11, draws 1, Tammeka wins 2

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 6 1 82:21 61 75
W D W W W
2 30 18 1 11 59:41 18 55
L W W D W
3
Paide Home
30 15 6 9 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
4 31 15 6 10 54:30 24 51
D L W W L
5 30 15 2 13 41:47 -6 47
W L L W L
6 31 13 2 16 43:47 -4 41
W W D W L
7 31 10 6 15 43:61 -18 36
D D L L L
8 30 9 5 16 33:49 -16 32
W D L L W
9 31 9 1 21 47:74 -27 28
L L L L W
10 30 5 5 20 24:67 -43 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga