BRAZIL SERIE A
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.3%
-
BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 82.3%
Draw 4%
Mirassol Win 13.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.75
Mirassol1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
69 GF / 30 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
34 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
2.03
Average Goals Scored
1.1
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
19
BTTS Yes
18
20
Over 2.5
14
5.87
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 34 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 31 matches
Flamengo Statistic Mirassol
21 Wins 10
9 Draws 8
4 Losses 13
69 Goals For 34
30 Goals Against 41
2.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
19 BTTS Yes 18
32 Over 1.5 21
20 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 7
13 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 9
5.87 Shots On Goal 4.03
15.77 Total Shots 12.19
4.47 Corners 4.9
56.4% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Flamengo's more proactive style and Mirassol's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 45 points compared to Mirassol in 17 on 24, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mirassol. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Flamengo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Mirassol in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mirassol having the stronger overall control.

Flamengo Analysis

Placed 2 with 45 points from 23 outings, Flamengo continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 45:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Pedro Guilherme (14 goals), Samuel Lino (6 goals), Jorge Carrascal (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (7 assists), Pedro Guilherme (4 assists), Jorge Carrascal (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 24 points from 23 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 26:36, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Igor Formiga (4 goals), João Victor (2 goals), Negueba (2 goals), with creative support from Reinaldo (4 assists), Alesson (4 assists), Igor Formiga (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 2 times, Mirassol won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:5 from Flamengo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Mirassol 4-3-3
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 2, draws 1, Mirassol wins 0
Last matches: Flamengo
22.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
20.08.26
CON
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
16.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Mirassol
5
1
W
13.08.26
CON
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
0
W
29.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Olimpia
4
2
W
11.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Benfica
2
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Lausanne
2
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
River Plate
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Gremio
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
30.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
Last matches: Mirassol
23.08.26
Ser
Mirassol
Santos
1
1
D
20.08.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
16.08.26
Ser
Mirassol
Flamengo
1
5
L
13.08.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
1
3
L
29.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
1
W
25.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Gremio
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
H2H: Flamengo vs Mirassol
16.08.26
H2H
Mirassol
Flamengo
1
5
W
06.12.25
H2H
Mirassol
Flamengo
3
3
D
09.08.25
H2H
Flamengo
Mirassol
2
1
W
Last matches: Flamengo
20.08.26
CON
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
09.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
17.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Olimpia
4
2
W
08.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Lausanne
2
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
River Plate
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Bahia
2
0
W
17.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Independiente Medellin
4
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Santos
3
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Remo
3
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
H2H at home: Flamengo
09.08.25
H2H
Flamengo
Mirassol
2
1
W
Last matches: Mirassol
23.08.26
Ser
Mirassol
Santos
1
1
D
20.08.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
09.08.26
Ser
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
1
3
L
25.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Palmeiras
0
1
L
04.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
2
D
H2H away: Mirassol
09.08.25
H2H
Flamengo
Mirassol
2
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 15 6 3 44:20 24 51
W L D W L
2 23 13 6 4 45:21 24 45
L W W D D
3 24 13 5 6 34:22 12 44
W D W D W
4 24 11 8 5 36:29 7 41
W W D D D
5 24 11 6 7 34:33 1 39
W W W W L
6 24 9 10 5 34:28 6 37
W D D D D
7 23 10 5 8 28:23 5 35
W D L D D
8 24 9 7 8 30:31 -1 34
W D W L D
9 23 9 6 8 30:27 3 33
D W D W D
10 24 8 8 8 26:24 2 32
L L W D D
11 23 8 6 9 37:37 0 30
L L D W D
12 24 8 5 11 23:35 -12 29
L W L L L
13 23 7 6 10 27:27 0 27
L D L D L
14 23 6 8 9 33:36 -3 26
D W L D L
15 23 6 7 10 24:31 -7 25
L L W D L
16 24 5 10 9 24:28 -4 25
D D D D L
17 23 6 6 11 26:36 -10 24
D L L W D
18 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
19 23 5 7 11 24:38 -14 22
L L D D L
20 23 2 8 13 24:46 -22 14
W D L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B