BRAZIL SERIE A
02.09.2026 22:30
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Mirassol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
J. Carrascal · Assist: Pedro
Flamengo
🔄
31'
E. Pulgar ↔ Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
43'
Lucas Paqueta · Assist: J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
46'
↔ G. de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
🔄
46'
Walter ↔ Alex Muralha
Mirassol
🔄
46'
Carlos Eduardo ↔ Shaylon
Mirassol
🟨
66'
João Victor
Mirassol
🔄
66'
Igor Formiga ↔ Elias
Mirassol
🔄
73'
J. Carrascal ↔ S. Niguez
Flamengo
🔄
73'
Pedro ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
79'
G. Cazonatti ↔ Chico Kim
Mirassol
🔄
79'
Andre Luis ↔ Bruno Santos
Mirassol
🟨
81'
Denilson
Mirassol
🔄
82'
Samuel Lino ↔ Everton
Flamengo

Flamengo vs Mirassol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.3%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 2.25
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.3%
1.25
BTTS Yes
78.9%
2.25
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.58
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.3%
1.25
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.62
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 82.3%
Draw 4%
Mirassol Win 13.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.76
Mirassol1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
72 GF / 30 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
35 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
2.06
Average Goals Scored
1.09
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
19
BTTS Yes
19
21
Over 2.5
14
5.87
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 35 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 32 matches
Flamengo Statistic Mirassol
22 Wins 10
9 Draws 9
4 Losses 13
72 Goals For 35
30 Goals Against 42
2.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
19 BTTS Yes 19
33 Over 1.5 22
21 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 7
14 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 9
5.87 Shots On Goal 4.16
15.84 Total Shots 12.66
4.48 Corners 5
56.6% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Flamengo's more proactive style and Mirassol's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 45 points compared to Mirassol in 17 on 24, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mirassol. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Flamengo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Mirassol in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mirassol having the stronger overall control.

Flamengo Analysis

Placed 2 with 45 points from 23 outings, Flamengo continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 45:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Pedro Guilherme (14 goals), Samuel Lino (6 goals), Jorge Carrascal (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (7 assists), Pedro Guilherme (4 assists), Jorge Carrascal (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 24 points from 23 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 26:36, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Igor Formiga (4 goals), João Victor (2 goals), Negueba (2 goals), with creative support from Reinaldo (4 assists), Alesson (4 assists), Igor Formiga (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 2 times, Mirassol won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:5 from Flamengo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Mirassol 4-3-3
Missing players: Flamengo 3, Mirassol 4
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 2, draws 1, Mirassol wins 0

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
11 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
12 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
13 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
14 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 27 7 7 13 30:38 -8 28
L L L W L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B