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MEXICO › LIGA MX
17.10.2026 03:05
Estadio Caliente
Referee: Daniel Quintero Huitron
Club Tijuana
Match Timeline
Puebla
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges
Puebla
🟨
57'
Iker Moreno
Puebla
🔄
58'
Jesús Vega ↔ Unai Bilbao
Club Tijuana
🔄
58'
Ramiro Árciga ↔ Joban González Cera
Club Tijuana
🔄
63'
L. Hernández ↔ Eduardo Mustre
Puebla
🔄
63'
Iker Moreno ↔ José Pachuca
Puebla
🟨
66'
Rafael Fernández
Club Tijuana
🔄
70'
Mourad El Ghezouani ↔ Elias Manoel
Club Tijuana
🔄
74'
Omar Moreno ↔ Heriberto Jurado
Puebla
🟨
79'
Joban González Cera
Club Tijuana
🔄
85'
Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges ↔ Ignacio Maestro
Puebla
🔄
85'
Alejandro Organista ↔ Eduardo Armenta
Puebla
🔄
85'
José Rivero ↔ Diego Abreu
Club Tijuana

Club Tijuana vs Puebla Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.76
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.78
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
1.76 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.75 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.78 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.17 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Club Tijuana Win 54.1%
Draw 11.9%
Puebla Win 34%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Tijuana1.52
Puebla1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Tijuana Club Tijuana
WWDLW
19 GF / 17 GA
Puebla Puebla
WLDWL
20 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
8
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
6
4
Shots on Goal
4.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Tijuana Club Tijuana 12 matches
Puebla Puebla 14 matches
Club Tijuana Statistic Puebla
5 Wins 6
4 Draws 3
3 Losses 5
19 Goals For 20
17 Goals Against 20
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
8 BTTS Yes 9
9 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 3
4 Shots On Goal 4.27
12.3 Total Shots 13.36
4.1 Corners 4.64
44% Ball Possession 42.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Club Tijuana's more proactive style and Puebla's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Tijuana expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Puebla in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Puebla having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Puebla. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Club Tijuana Analysis

With 14 points from 9 games and a place of 8, Club Tijuana still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 14:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through G. Mora (3 goals), Mourad (3 goals), I. Rivero (2 goals), with creative support from J. Vega (2 assists), G. Mora (1 assists), Adonis Preciado (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Puebla Analysis

With 14 points from 10 games and a place of 9, Puebla still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 11:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Tomás (2 goals), I. Maestro Puch (1 goals), E. Mustre (1 goals), with creative support from A. Herrera (2 assists), I. Maestro Puch (1 assists), E. Mustre (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Tijuana won 6 times, Puebla won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:25 from Club Tijuana's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1 / Puebla 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Club Tijuana wins 6, draws 3, Puebla wins 6

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 22:11 11 21
D W D L W
2 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
3 11 6 2 3 25:15 10 20
L D L W W
4 10 6 2 2 15:8 7 20
W W D W W
5 11 5 4 2 18:11 7 19
D L D W W
7 11 5 2 4 22:21 1 17
D D L W W
8 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
9 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
10 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
11 10 4 2 4 17:15 2 14
D L W D L
12 11 3 4 4 18:14 4 13
D L D W W
13 11 3 4 4 13:15 -2 13
W W L D D
14 11 4 1 6 12:16 -4 13
W W W W L
15 11 3 3 5 15:20 -5 12
L W W L L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 11 1 1 9 8:26 -18 4
D L W L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)