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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
17.10.2026 04:00
IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Referee: Keigo Sendachi
Shimizu S-pulse
Match Timeline
Gamba Osaka
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
Yuki Honda · Assist: Masaki Yumiba
Shimizu S-pulse
🟨
23'
Ryoya Yamashita
Gamba Osaka
🟨
24'
Ryo Hatsuse
Gamba Osaka
⚽
42'
Kai Matsuzaki · Assist: Oh Se-hun
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
45'
Yusei Toshida ↔ Takashi Usami
Gamba Osaka
🔄
45'
Rin Mito ↔ Eli Adams
Gamba Osaka
🟨
47'
Hidehiro Sugai
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
64'
Kenta Inoue ↔ Tomoya Fujii
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
65'
Welton ↔ Ryotaro Meshino
Gamba Osaka
🟨
75'
T. Myojin
Gamba Osaka
🔄
75'
Mateus Brunetti Valor ↔ Yutaka Yoshida
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
75'
Oh Se-hun ↔ Yudai Shimamoto
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
76'
Shota Fukuoka ↔ Tsuyoshi Ogashiwa
Gamba Osaka
🔄
77'
Shinya Nakano ↔ Ryo Hatsuse
Gamba Osaka
⚽
84'
Ryotaro Meshino
Gamba Osaka
🔄
90'
Kai Matsuzaki ↔ Park Seung-Wook
Shimizu S-pulse
⚽
90+5'
Issam Jebali · Assist: Takeru Kishimoto
Gamba Osaka

Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.3%
Odds 2.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.98
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.3%
2.33 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.98 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.1%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Shimizu S-pulse Win 69.3%
Draw 13.6%
Gamba Osaka Win 17.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shimizu S-pulse1.25
Gamba Osaka0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse
WWDLW
8 GF / 9 GA
Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka
WLDWL
8 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
0.89
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
4
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
3
3.44
Shots on Goal
4.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 9 matches
Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 9 matches
Shimizu S-pulse Statistic Gamba Osaka
4 Wins 1
1 Draws 3
4 Losses 5
8 Goals For 8
9 Goals Against 16
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
4 BTTS Yes 4
4 Over 1.5 7
3 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 5
3.44 Shots On Goal 4.22
10.78 Total Shots 13.89
4.67 Corners 4.78
42.8% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gamba Osaka. Shimizu S-pulse arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 12 with 10 points compared to Gamba Osaka in 17 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Gamba Osaka arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shimizu S-pulse expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Gamba Osaka in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gamba Osaka having the stronger overall control.

Shimizu S-pulse Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Shimizu S-pulse have collected 10 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 6:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Oh Se-Hun (2 goals), K. Kitagawa (1 goals), Y. Shimamoto (1 goals), with creative support from T. Fujii (2 assists), R. Germain (1 assists), Won Du-Jae (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gamba Osaka Analysis

With 6 points from 9 games and a place of 17, Gamba Osaka still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats with a 8:16 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on I. Jebali (2 goals), D. Hümmet (2 goals), S. Nakatani (1 goals), with creative support from R. Yamashita (2 assists), I. Jebali (1 assists), S. Nakatani (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Shimizu S-pulse won 2 times, Gamba Osaka won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:20 from Shimizu S-pulse's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Shimizu S-pulse 4-3-3 / Gamba Osaka 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Shimizu S-pulse wins 2, draws 5, Gamba Osaka wins 8

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 25:10 15 23
W W L D W
3 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
4 10 7 1 2 17:9 8 22
W L W W W
5 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
6 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 10 4 1 5 12:15 -3 13
L L L W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 10 2 1 7 11:16 -5 7
L W L L D
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League