BRAZIL SERIE A
16.07.2026 22:30
Olimpico Joao Havelange
Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima
Botafogo
Match Timeline
Santos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Huguinho
Botafogo
🟨
26'
Thaciano
Santos
41'
L. E. Jales do Nascimento · Assist: Kauan Toledo
Botafogo
VAR
42'
Lucas Emanuel
Botafogo
🟨
45+2'
Matheus Martins
Botafogo
🟨
45+2'
Álvaro Barreal
Santos
🔄
54'
Gustavo Henrique ↔ C. Oliva
Santos
57'
A. Barreal
Santos
🔄
64'
Matheus Martins ↔ S. Rodriguez
Botafogo
🔄
64'
Miguelito ↔ Nadson
Santos
🔄
64'
Thaciano ↔ Rony
Santos
🔄
71'
Igor Vinicius ↔ Gabriel Menino
Santos
🔄
71'
B. Rollheiser ↔ Gabriel Bontempo
Santos
🔄
77'
Kauan Toledo ↔ K. Barria
Botafogo
🟨
78'
Nahuel Ferraresi
Botafogo
🔄
78'
L. E. Jales do Nascimento ↔ Edenilson
Botafogo
🔄
86'
Vitinho ↔ M. Ponte
Botafogo
🔄
86'
Alex Telles ↔ Marcal
Botafogo
🟨
90+7'
Kadir Barría
Botafogo
90'
K. Barria
Botafogo

Botafogo vs Santos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.3%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 81.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
2 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.3%
-
BTTS Yes
81.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 68.3%
Draw 6.5%
Santos Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.58
Santos1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
34 GF / 34 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
29 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
15
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
12
4.86
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 21 matches
Santos Santos 19 matches
Botafogo Statistic Santos
7 Wins 6
5 Draws 6
9 Losses 7
34 Goals For 29
34 Goals Against 29
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
15 BTTS Yes 13
18 Over 1.5 17
14 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
4.86 Shots On Goal 3.33
12.62 Total Shots 11.78
3.76 Corners 5
49.5% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Botafogo appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Santos. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Santos. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Botafogo Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Botafogo have collected 22 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 31:31 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Danilo (7 goals), Matheus Martins (4 goals), with creative support from A. Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Alex Telles (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Bastos, Allan, Junior Santos unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Santos Analysis

With 21 points from 18 games and a place of 15, Santos still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 26:29, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals), Neymar (4 goals), Benjamín Rollheiser (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Miguelito (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Vinicius Lira, Thaciano unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 4 times, Santos won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:17 from Botafogo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-2-3-1 / Santos 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Botafogo 8, Santos 7
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 4, draws 6, Santos wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B