BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.3%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 68.3%
Draw 6.5%
Santos Win 25.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.58
Santos1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
34 GF / 34 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
29 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
15
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
12
4.86
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 21 matches
Santos Santos 19 matches
Botafogo Statistic Santos
7 Wins 6
5 Draws 6
9 Losses 7
34 Goals For 29
34 Goals Against 29
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
15 BTTS Yes 13
18 Over 1.5 17
14 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
4.86 Shots On Goal 3.33
12.62 Total Shots 11.78
3.76 Corners 5
49.5% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Santos. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo sit 12 with 22 points after 17 league matches. The record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 31:31 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Danilo (7 goals), Matheus Martins (4 goals), with creative support from A. Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Alex Telles (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 15 with 21 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 26:29, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals), Neymar (4 goals), Benjamín Rollheiser (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Miguelito (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 3 times, Santos won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:17 from Botafogo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-2-3-1 / Santos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 3, draws 6, Santos wins 6
Last matches: Botafogo
30.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Bahia
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
18.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
4
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
29.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
4
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Palmeiras
1
2
L
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
04.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
2
0
W
19.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Botafogo
Gremio
3
5
L
Last matches: Santos
04.07.26
Fri
Santos
União São João
3
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Santos
Vitoria
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santos
Gremio
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Santos
Coritiba
0
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Santos
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santos
Palmeiras
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Santos
Bahia
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Santos
Fluminense
2
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Santos
Flamengo
1
3
L
02.04.26
Ser
Santos
Remo
2
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Santos
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
19.03.26
Ser
Santos
Internacional
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Santos
Corinthians
1
1
D
11.03.26
Ser
Santos
Mirassol
2
2
D
26.02.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
04.02.26
Ser
Santos
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
2
4
L
H2H: Botafogo vs Santos
26.10.25
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
2
2
D
01.06.25
H2H
Santos
Botafogo
0
1
W
26.11.23
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
1
1
D
23.07.23
H2H
Santos
Botafogo
2
2
D
10.11.22
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
3
0
W
21.07.22
H2H
Santos
Botafogo
2
0
L
17.01.21
H2H
Santos
Botafogo
2
1
L
20.09.20
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
0
D
03.11.19
H2H
Santos
Botafogo
4
1
L
21.07.19
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
1
L
21.11.18
H2H
Santos
Botafogo
1
1
D
04.08.18
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
0
D
16.09.17
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
2
0
W
08.06.17
H2H
Santos
Botafogo
1
0
L
14.09.16
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
1
L
Last matches: Botafogo
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
2
0
W
30.01.26
Ser
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
4
0
W
H2H at home: Botafogo
26.10.25
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
2
2
D
26.11.23
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
1
1
D
10.11.22
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
3
0
W
20.09.20
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
0
D
21.07.19
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
1
L
04.08.18
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
0
D
16.09.17
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
2
0
W
14.09.16
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
1
L
Last matches: Santos
23.05.26
Ser
Santos
Gremio
2
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
Santos
Palmeiras
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Santos
Bahia
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Santos
Flamengo
1
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Santos
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
11.03.26
Ser
Santos
Mirassol
2
2
D
12.02.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
2
4
L
H2H away: Santos
26.10.25
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
2
2
D
26.11.23
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
1
1
D
10.11.22
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
3
0
L
20.09.20
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
0
D
21.07.19
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
1
W
04.08.18
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
0
D
16.09.17
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
2
0
L
14.09.16
H2H
Botafogo
Santos
0
1
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B