BRAZIL SERIE A
30.07.2026 00:30
Barradao
Referee: A. Gomes Stefano
Vitoria
Match Timeline
Palmeiras
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Marlon Freitas
Palmeiras
🟨
27'
Mauricio
Palmeiras
🟨
32'
Emmanuel Martinez
Vitoria
🟥
37'
Caca
Vitoria
🟥
40'
Luan Candido
Vitoria
🔄
41'
Emmanuel Martinez ↔ Ze Vitor
Vitoria
45'
Mauricio · Assist: J. Arias
Palmeiras
45'
Fabiano
Palmeiras
🔄
46'
Rene ↔ T. Pochettino
Vitoria
🔄
46'
Matheuzinho ↔ D. Tarzia
Vitoria
🔄
46'
Marlon Freitas ↔ E. Martinez
Palmeiras
🔄
46'
Mauricio ↔ Khellven
Palmeiras
🔄
46'
G. Gomez ↔ J. Lopez
Palmeiras
🟨
56'
Fabiano
Vitoria
🔄
65'
A. Barboza ↔ Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras
🟨
66'
E. Britez
Vitoria
🔄
67'
Fabiano ↔ Jamerson
Vitoria
70'
J. Arias · Assist: J. Piquerez
Palmeiras
🔄
74'
Baralhas ↔ Walace
Vitoria
🔄
74'
J. Arias ↔ Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
84'
R. Sosa
Palmeiras

Vitoria vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.4%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 39.2%
Draw 11.7%
Palmeiras Win 49.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria0.98
Palmeiras1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
22 GF / 27 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
44 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
8
BTTS Yes
17
7
Over 2.5
13
4.2
Shots on Goal
4.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 20 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 26 matches
Vitoria Statistic Palmeiras
7 Wins 16
5 Draws 7
8 Losses 3
22 Goals For 44
27 Goals Against 21
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
8 BTTS Yes 17
16 Over 1.5 19
7 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 2
4.2 Shots On Goal 4.92
11 Total Shots 14.65
4.1 Corners 6.12
46% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Palmeiras's more proactive style and Vitoria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Palmeiras. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Palmeiras in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palmeiras having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Palmeiras carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 44 points while Vitoria sit 11 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Vitoria Analysis

So far, Vitoria have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 25 points from 18 matches. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 22:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Renê Sousa (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (2 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Diego Tarzia (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Palmeiras Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 44 points from 19 games, Palmeiras bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 13 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 33:14, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by José López (6 goals), Allan (4 goals), Ramón Sosa (3 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (9 assists), José López (3 assists), Allan (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 2 times, Palmeiras won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:31 from Vitoria's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-3-3 / Palmeiras 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vitoria 7, Palmeiras 3
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 2, draws 3, Palmeiras wins 10

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
2 26 16 6 4 51:21 30 54
W W W L W
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 26 8 8 10 27:27 0 32
L L L L W
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B