COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
26.08.2026 01:05

Santa Fe vs Jaguares Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.2%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.93
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.2%
1.33
BTTS No
50.8%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.93
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
79%
1.28
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.00
Correct Score 2-0
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
Santa Fe Win 87.2%
Draw 5.2%
Jaguares Win 7.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Fe1.51
Jaguares1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Fe Santa Fe
WWDLW
48 GF / 38 GA
Jaguares Jaguares
WLDWL
22 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
24
BTTS Yes
11
16
Over 2.5
11
4.42
Shots on Goal
3.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Fe Santa Fe 34 matches
Jaguares Jaguares 24 matches
Santa Fe Statistic Jaguares
11 Wins 6
15 Draws 4
8 Losses 14
48 Goals For 22
38 Goals Against 40
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
24 BTTS Yes 11
28 Over 1.5 18
16 Over 2.5 11
8 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 8
4.42 Shots On Goal 3.46
12.09 Total Shots 10.67
4.39 Corners 3.83
47.1% Ball Possession 43.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Santa Fe's more proactive style and Jaguares's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Santa Fe arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 29 points compared to Jaguares in 16 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Jaguares arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Jaguares. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Santa Fe Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Santa Fe have collected 29 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses, while the 29:22 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Nahuel Bustos (1 goals), Hugo Rodallega (1 goals), Jader Obrian (1 goals), with creative support from Nahuel Bustos (1 assists), Franco Fagúndez (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Jaguares Analysis

With 18 points from 19 games and a place of 16, Jaguares still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats with a 20:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Darwin Lopez (1 goals), with creative support from Carlos Cantillo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Santa Fe won 7 times, Jaguares won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:10 from Santa Fe's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Santa Fe 4-2-3-1 / Jaguares 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Santa Fe wins 7, draws 4, Jaguares wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification