🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
BMO Field
Referee: I. Elfath
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
Atlanta United FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
20'
B. Kuscevic ↔ L. Stefanovic
Toronto FC
VAR
24'
Cayman Togashi
Atlanta United FC
🔄
27'
C. Togashi ↔ E. Latte Lath
Atlanta United FC
🔄
30'
J. Cifuentes ↔ D. Etienne
Toronto FC
🟨
38'
Stian Gregersen
Atlanta United FC
🟨
45+2'
Cooper Sanchez
Atlanta United FC
48'
A. Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
🔄
59'
L. Brennan ↔ F. Picault
Atlanta United FC
67'
T. Muyumba
Atlanta United FC
71'
E. Aristizabal · Assist: K. Franklin
Toronto FC
🔄
72'
J. Sargent ↔ J. Vilsaint
Toronto FC
🔄
72'
E. Aristizabal ↔ M. Henry
Toronto FC
🔄
72'
A. Coello ↔ A. Bossenberry
Toronto FC
🔄
77'
C. Sanchez ↔ M. Galarza
Atlanta United FC
🔄
77'
A. Miranchuk ↔ W. Reilly
Atlanta United FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 76.6%
Draw 14.2%
Atlanta United FC Win 9.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.7
Atlanta United FC1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
26 GF / 22 GA
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WLDWL
15 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
10
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
6
5.33
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 14 matches
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 13 matches
Toronto FC Statistic Atlanta United FC
6 Wins 3
5 Draws 3
3 Losses 7
26 Goals For 15
22 Goals Against 19
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
10 BTTS Yes 6
12 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 6
5.33 Shots On Goal 4.33
12.11 Total Shots 12.33
5.78 Corners 4.89
47.4% Ball Possession 54.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Toronto FC appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Atlanta United FC. Toronto FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 13 points compared to Atlanta United FC in 15 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atlanta United FC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atlanta United FC having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atlanta United FC. Atlanta United FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Toronto FC Analysis

So far, Toronto FC have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 13 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Salloi (3 goals), J. Sargent (2 goals), K. Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from D. Salloi (2 assists), D. Mihailovic (2 assists), A. Coello (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with B. Kuscevic, T. Corbeanu, N. Gomis unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 4 points from 9 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 6:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Miranchuk (4 goals), Emmanuel Latte Lath (1 goals), F. Picault (1 goals), with creative support from M. Almiron (3 assists), Emmanuel Latte Lath (1 assists), E. Baez (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Sergio Santos, M. Almiron, S. Alzate, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 5 times, Atlanta United FC won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:20 from Toronto FC's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 4-2-3-1 / Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
Missing players: Toronto FC 8, Atlanta United FC 4
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 5, draws 5, Atlanta United FC wins 5
Stats
Toronto FC Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
8 Corner Kicks 7
10 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 4
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Goal 2
3 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 3
2 Shots outsidebox 3
0 Goalkeeper Saves 1
442 Total passes 436
352 Passes accurate 354
0.64 expected_goals 0.61
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Toronto FC
Formation
Atlanta United FC
L. Gavran
L. Gavran
K. Franklin
🎯
K. Franklin
Z. Monlouis
Z. Monlouis
B. Kuscevic
B. Kuscevic
R. Edwards
R. Edwards
A. Coello
A. Coello
E. Aristizabal
E. Aristizabal
J. Cifuentes
J. Cifuentes
J. Osorio
J. Osorio
D. Salloi
D. Salloi
J. Sargent
J. Sargent
L. Hoyos
L. Hoyos
M. Edwards
M. Edwards
S. Gregersen
S. Gregersen
J. Berrocal
J. Berrocal
E. Baez
E. Baez
T. Muyumba
T. Muyumba
A. Miranchuk
A. Miranchuk
C. Sanchez
C. Sanchez
A. Fortune
A. Fortune
L. Brennan
L. Brennan
C. Togashi
C. Togashi
Toronto FC 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
L. Gavran
G
19
K. Franklin
🎯 71'
D
12
Z. Monlouis
D
13
B. Kuscevic
↓ 20'
D
44
R. Edwards
D
14
A. Coello
↓ 72'
M
17
E. Aristizabal
⚽ 71' ↓ 72'
M
8
J. Cifuentes
↓ 30'
M
21
J. Osorio
M
20
D. Salloi
M
9
J. Sargent
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
23
W. Yarbrough
G
11
D. Etienne
↑ 30'
F
76
L. Stefanovic
↑ 20'
D
99
J. Vilsaint
↑ 72'
F
75
R. Fisher
D
71
M. Cimermancic
M
38
J. Gilman
D
78
M. Henry
↑ 72'
M
56
A. Bossenberry
↑ 72'
M
Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
L. Hoyos
G
47
M. Edwards
D
5
S. Gregersen
🟨 38'
D
6
J. Berrocal
D
3
E. Baez
D
8
T. Muyumba
⚽ 67'
M
59
A. Miranchuk
⚽ 48' ↓ 77'
M
48
C. Sanchez
↓ 77' 🟨 45+2'
M
35
A. Fortune
M
20
L. Brennan
↓ 59'
M
30
C. Togashi
↓ 27'
F
Substitutes
42
J. Hibbert
G
22
F. Picault
↑ 59'
F
11
S. Lobjanidze
F
88
M. Galarza
↑ 77'
M
28
W. Reilly
↑ 77'
M
2
R. Hernandez
D
9
E. Latte Lath
↑ 27'
F
4
E. Mihaj
D
18
P. Amador
D
Last matches: Toronto FC
22.07.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New England Revolution
0
0
D
16.07.26
Maj
Toronto FC
CF Montreal
0
0
D
24.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Charlotte
1
3
L
09.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
02.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
22.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
3
3
D
18.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Austin
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
14.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
08.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
3
L
22.02.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Dallas
2
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Polessya
2
1
W
11.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Fredrikstad
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
AIK Stockholm
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Jeonbuk Motors
2
0
W
28.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Incheon United
4
1
W
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
23.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Charlotte
2
2
D
18.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
1
L
24.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
09.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
3
1
W
22.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
2
L
18.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
12.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
04.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
1
3
L
21.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
DC United
0
0
D
14.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
3
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Real Salt Lake
2
3
L
01.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
21.02.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
08.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Lexington
4
0
W
H2H: Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC
25.04.26
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
24.08.25
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
0
0
D
12.07.25
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
29.06.24
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
2
1
L
23.03.24
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
15.04.23
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
05.03.23
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
1
1
D
10.09.22
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
4
2
L
25.06.22
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
2
1
W
30.10.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
1
1
D
16.10.21
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
0
2
L
18.08.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
1
0
L
18.10.20
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
31.10.19
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
1
2
W
27.06.19
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
Last matches: Toronto FC
09.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
02.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
22.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
3
3
D
18.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Austin
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
14.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Polessya
2
1
W
11.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Fredrikstad
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
AIK Stockholm
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Jeonbuk Motors
2
0
W
28.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Incheon United
4
1
W
H2H at home: Toronto FC
25.04.26
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
12.07.25
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
23.03.24
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
15.04.23
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
25.06.22
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
2
1
W
16.10.21
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
0
2
L
18.10.20
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
27.06.19
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
23.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Charlotte
2
2
D
18.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
1
L
24.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
12.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
21.02.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
H2H away: Atlanta United FC
25.04.26
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
W
12.07.25
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
23.03.24
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
2
0
L
15.04.23
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
25.06.22
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
2
1
L
16.10.21
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
0
2
W
18.10.20
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
0
L
27.06.19
H2H
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
3
2
L

Missing Players

Toronto FC 8 missing
-
B. Kuscevic
Questionable Groin Injury
OUT
-
T. Corbeanu
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Gomis
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
Matheus Pereira
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
H. Wingo
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Mihailovic
Missing Fixture Pelvis Injury
OUT
-
D. Kerr
Questionable Groin Injury
OUT
-
R. Laryea
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Atlanta United FC 4 missing
-
Sergio Santos
Missing Fixture Illness
OUT
-
M. Almiron
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Alzate
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
T. Jacob
Questionable Leg Injury
OUT