Login Register
BRAZIL › SERIE A
02.10.2026 23:00
Estadio Do MorumBIS
Referee: Matheus Delgado Candançan, Brazil
Sao Paulo
Match Timeline
Santos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
31'
Ryan Francisco
Sao Paulo
🟨
33'
Lucas Veríssimo
Santos
⚽
34'
Luciano
Sao Paulo
⚽
36'
Gabriel Barbosa · Assist: Gonzalo Escobar
Santos
🟨
41'
Luciano
Sao Paulo
🟨
45'
Christian Oliva
Santos
🔄
46'
Lima ↔ Gustavinho
Santos
🔄
46'
Álvaro Barreal ↔ Philippe Coutinho
Santos
⚽
54'
Gabriel Barbosa · Assist: Everton Cebolinha
Santos
🔄
54'
Arthur ↔ Gabriel Menino
Santos
🔄
64'
Rafael Tolói ↔ Newton
Sao Paulo
🔄
64'
Damián Bobadilla ↔ Danielzinho
Sao Paulo
🔄
64'
Ryan Francisco ↔ Gustavo Santana
Sao Paulo
🔄
67'
Iago Borduchi ↔ Wendell
Sao Paulo
🔄
73'
Pedro Lima ↔ Victor Sá
Sao Paulo
🟨
76'
Everton Cebolinha
Santos
🔄
76'
Everton Cebolinha ↔ Rony
Santos
🔄
86'
Gabriel Barbosa ↔ Thaciano
Santos

Sao Paulo vs Santos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sao Paulo Win 38%
Draw 12.1%
Santos Win 49.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo1.29
Santos1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WWDLW
32 GF / 30 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
44 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
15
BTTS Yes
19
10
Over 2.5
18
4.07
Shots on Goal
4.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 27 matches
Santos Santos 28 matches
Sao Paulo Statistic Santos
10 Wins 11
6 Draws 8
11 Losses 9
32 Goals For 44
30 Goals Against 40
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
15 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 25
10 Over 2.5 18
3 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 3
4.07 Shots On Goal 4.07
12.89 Total Shots 13.48
6.56 Corners 5.52
53.5% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Santos. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sao Paulo expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Santos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santos having the stronger overall control. Santos look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo sit 11 with 36 points after 27 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, while the 32:30 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano (7 goals), J. Calleri (6 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Luciano (2 assists), Artur (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 8 with 38 points after 27 league matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 41:40 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by Gabriel Barbosa (11 goals), Neymar (6 goals), B. Rollheiser (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (3 assists), Neymar (2 assists), B. Rollheiser (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo won 2 times, Santos won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from Sao Paulo's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1 / Santos 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sao Paulo 10, Santos 6
H2H summary: Sao Paulo wins 2, draws 1, Santos wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B