COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
05.09.2026 23:25
Estadio El Campin
Referee: Jhon Ospina
Santa Fe
Match Timeline
Fortaleza FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
F. Fagundez
Santa Fe
23'
A. Copete
Santa Fe
🟨
34'
Joan Cajares
Fortaleza FC
🔄
46'
A. Batioja ↔ J. Salas
Fortaleza FC
🔄
54'
E. Cabezas ↔ J. Medina Obando
Fortaleza FC
🔄
54'
J. Sinisterra ↔ I. Montano
Fortaleza FC
🔄
57'
J. Torres ↔ D. Torres
Santa Fe
🔄
57'
F. Fagundez ↔ H. Rodallega
Santa Fe
🔄
57'
E. Rodriguez ↔ M. Lovera
Santa Fe
🟨
66'
Andres Copete
Fortaleza FC
🟨
69'
Daniel Torres
Santa Fe
🔄
71'
V. Moreno ↔ E. Olivera
Santa Fe
🔄
75'
J. Blanco ↔ F. Pulicastro
Fortaleza FC
77'
N. Bustos
Fortaleza FC
🔄
79'
S. Navarro ↔ J. Garcia
Fortaleza FC
🟨
84'
Leonardo Pico
Fortaleza FC
🔄
87'
L. Palacios ↔ J. Obrian
Santa Fe
90'
J. Garcia · Assist: F. Pulicastro
Fortaleza FC

Santa Fe vs Fortaleza FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.2%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santa Fe Win 74.2%
Draw 5.7%
Fortaleza FC Win 20.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Fe1.4
Fortaleza FC1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Fe Santa Fe
WWDLW
52 GF / 41 GA
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WLDWL
28 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
26
BTTS Yes
18
17
Over 2.5
12
4.46
Shots on Goal
3.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Fe Santa Fe 36 matches
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 26 matches
Santa Fe Statistic Fortaleza FC
12 Wins 6
16 Draws 10
8 Losses 10
52 Goals For 28
41 Goals Against 35
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
26 BTTS Yes 18
30 Over 1.5 21
17 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 5
4.46 Shots On Goal 3.69
12.14 Total Shots 11.42
4.51 Corners 4.12
46.9% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Santa Fe's more proactive style and Fortaleza FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santa Fe expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Fortaleza FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza FC having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fortaleza FC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Santa Fe arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 29 points compared to Fortaleza FC in 15 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Santa Fe Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Santa Fe have collected 29 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses, while the 29:22 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Franco Fagúndez (1 goals), Nahuel Bustos (1 goals), Hugo Rodallega (1 goals), with creative support from Franco Fagúndez (1 assists), Nahuel Bustos (1 assists), Maximiliano Lovera (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

Fortaleza FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 22 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats with a 22:27 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Richardson Rivas (2 goals), Joan Cajares (1 goals), J. Solís (1 goals), with creative support from Yesid Díaz (1 assists), Santiago Vivas (1 assists), Andres Copete (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Santa Fe won 6 times, Fortaleza FC won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:6 from Santa Fe's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Santa Fe 4-4-1-1 / Fortaleza FC 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Santa Fe wins 6, draws 2, Fortaleza FC wins 1

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
W L D D L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W W D L D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D L L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L L W D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W D D L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W D D L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
D L W W L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D L D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
L D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W W D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L D L W
Post season qualification