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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
27.10.2026 01:05

Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Santa Fe Win 44.8%
Draw 4.2%
Bucaramanga Win 51%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Fe1.29
Bucaramanga1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Fe Santa Fe
WWDLW
62 GF / 47 GA
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga
WLDWL
49 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
29
BTTS Yes
20
20
Over 2.5
16
4.64
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Fe Santa Fe 43 matches
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 33 matches
Santa Fe Statistic Bucaramanga
16 Wins 11
17 Draws 15
10 Losses 7
62 Goals For 49
47 Goals Against 35
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
29 BTTS Yes 20
33 Over 1.5 27
20 Over 2.5 16
11 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 8
4.64 Shots On Goal 4.03
12.36 Total Shots 12.22
4.57 Corners 3.66
46.8% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santa Fe expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Bucaramanga in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bucaramanga having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bucaramanga. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Santa Fe Analysis

Santa Fe sit 7 with 29 points after 19 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 29:22 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Rodallega (14 goals), N. Bustos (11 goals), Omar Fernández (5 goals), with creative support from Omar Fernández (8 assists), N. Bustos (5 assists), F. Fagúndez (4 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Bucaramanga Analysis

So far, Bucaramanga have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 23 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 26:20 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Pons (12 goals), E. Batalla (11 goals), F. Sambueza (5 goals), with creative support from F. Sambueza (7 assists), L. Pons (5 assists), E. Batalla (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santa Fe won 5 times, Bucaramanga won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:17 from Santa Fe's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Santa Fe 4-4-2 / Bucaramanga 3-4-3
H2H summary: Santa Fe wins 5, draws 4, Bucaramanga wins 6

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W D L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D D L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L D L W W
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W W D L L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W L D L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W D D W L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W W W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W D L W L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L D
Post season qualification