GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Red Bull Arena
Referee: Benjamin Brand, Germany
RB Leipzig
Match Timeline
FC St. Pauli
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Castello Lukeba
RB Leipzig
45'
X. Schlager · Assist: C. Baumgartner
RB Leipzig
🟨
50'
Christoph Baumgartner
RB Leipzig
54'
W. Orban · Assist: D. Raum
RB Leipzig
🔄
64'
L. Ritzka ↔ H. Wahl
FC St. Pauli
🔄
64'
L. Oppie ↔ F. Stevens
FC St. Pauli
🔄
69'
D. Raum ↔ M. Finkgrafe
RB Leipzig
🔄
69'
A. Ouedraogo ↔ N. Seiwald
RB Leipzig
🔄
72'
A. Hountondji ↔ A. Ceesay
FC St. Pauli
🔄
79'
B. Gruda ↔ A. Nusa
RB Leipzig
86'
A. Ceesay · Assist: J. Irvine
FC St. Pauli
🔄
89'
C. Metcalfe ↔ D. Sinani
FC St. Pauli
🔄
89'
E. Smith ↔ M. Rasmussen
FC St. Pauli
🔄
90+1'
R. Baku ↔ B. Henrichs
RB Leipzig

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
RB Leipzig Win 90%
Draw 0%
FC St. Pauli Win 10%
Expected Goals (xG)
RB Leipzig1.87
FC St. Pauli1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
WWDLW
63 GF / 42 GA
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
WLDWL
27 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.97
Average Goals Scored
0.84
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.72
19
BTTS Yes
17
22
Over 2.5
17
6.03
Shots on Goal
3.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 32 matches
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 32 matches
RB Leipzig Statistic FC St. Pauli
19 Wins 6
5 Draws 8
8 Losses 18
63 Goals For 27
42 Goals Against 55
1.97 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.72
19 BTTS Yes 17
27 Over 1.5 26
22 Over 2.5 17
15 Over 3.5 6
11 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 13
6.03 Shots On Goal 3.41
15.94 Total Shots 10.31
5.47 Corners 4.63
53.2% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around RB Leipzig's more proactive style and FC St. Pauli's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with RB Leipzig expected to line up in 4-3-3 and FC St. Pauli in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC St. Pauli having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. RB Leipzig come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. RB Leipzig arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 62 points compared to FC St. Pauli in 17 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC St. Pauli.

RB Leipzig Analysis

RB Leipzig come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 62 points after 32 matches. With 19 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 63:42, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by C. Baumgartner (13 goals), Yan Diomande (12 goals), Romulo Cardoso (10 goals), with creative support from Yan Diomande (8 assists), C. Baumgartner (7 assists), D. Raum (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

FC St. Pauli Analysis

With 26 points from 32 games and a place of 17, FC St. Pauli still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 27:55, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Sinani (5 goals), A. Hountondji (4 goals), M. Kaars (3 goals), with creative support from D. Sinani (3 assists), J. Fujita (3 assists), M. Saliakas (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, RB Leipzig won 4 times, FC St. Pauli won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:8 from RB Leipzig's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: RB Leipzig 4-3-3 / FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
Missing players: RB Leipzig 6, FC St. Pauli 5
H2H summary: RB Leipzig wins 4, draws 2, FC St. Pauli wins 3
Stats
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
3 Corner Kicks 5
5 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 0
70% Ball Possession 30%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 4
5 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
732 Total passes 299
646 Passes accurate 211
1.37 expected_goals 0.79
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

RB Leipzig
Formation
FC St. Pauli
M. Vandevoordt
M. Vandevoordt
R. Baku
R. Baku
W. Orban
W. Orban
C. Lukeba
C. Lukeba
D. Raum
🎯
D. Raum
A. Ouedraogo
A. Ouedraogo
X. Schlager
X. Schlager
C. Baumgartner
🎯
C. Baumgartner
B. Gruda
B. Gruda
Romulo Cardoso
Romulo Cardoso
Y. Diomande
Y. Diomande
N. Vasilj
N. Vasilj
T. Ando
T. Ando
E. Smith
E. Smith
L. Ritzka
L. Ritzka
A. Pyrka
A. Pyrka
C. Metcalfe
C. Metcalfe
J. Irvine
🎯
J. Irvine
J. Fujita
J. Fujita
L. Oppie
L. Oppie
M. Kaars
M. Kaars
A. Hountondji
A. Hountondji
RB Leipzig 4-3-3
Starting XI
26
M. Vandevoordt
G
17
R. Baku
↓ 90+1'
D
4
W. Orban
⚽ 54'
D
23
C. Lukeba
🟨 19'
D
22
D. Raum
🎯 54' ↓ 69'
D
20
A. Ouedraogo
↓ 69'
M
24
X. Schlager
⚽ 45'
M
14
C. Baumgartner
🎯 45' 🟨 50'
M
10
B. Gruda
↓ 79'
F
40
Romulo Cardoso
F
49
Y. Diomande
F
Substitutes
1
P. Gulacsi
G
16
L. Klostermann
D
9
J. Bakayoko
F
5
E. Bitshiabu
D
35
M. Finkgrafe
↑ 69'
D
39
B. Henrichs
↑ 90+1'
D
13
N. Seiwald
↑ 69'
M
7
A. Nusa
↑ 79'
M
11
C. Harder
F
FC St. Pauli 3-5-2
Starting XI
22
N. Vasilj
G
15
T. Ando
D
8
E. Smith
↓ 89'
D
21
L. Ritzka
↓ 64'
D
11
A. Pyrka
M
24
C. Metcalfe
↓ 89'
M
7
J. Irvine
🎯 86'
M
16
J. Fujita
M
23
L. Oppie
↓ 64'
M
19
M. Kaars
F
27
A. Hountondji
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
1
B. A. Voll
G
5
H. Wahl
↑ 64'
D
10
D. Sinani
↑ 89'
F
20
M. Rasmussen
↑ 89'
M
14
F. Stevens
↑ 64'
D
18
T. Hara
F
9
A. Ceesay
⚽ 86' ↑ 72'
F
Last matches: RB Leipzig
18.07.26
Fri
RB Leipzig
Altglienicke
2
1
W
29.05.26
Fri
RB Leipzig
Mamelodi Sundowns
1
3
L
16.05.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
1
4
L
02.05.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
1
4
L
24.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
3
1
W
18.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
1
W
11.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
0
W
04.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
2
1
W
20.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
1899 Hoffenheim
5
0
W
15.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
0
1
L
07.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
2
1
W
01.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
2
1
W
21.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund
2
2
D
15.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
VfL Wolfsburg
2
2
D
08.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
1. FC Köln
2
1
W
31.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
1
2
L
27.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
1
1
D
24.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
1. FC Heidenheim
3
0
W
17.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Bayern München
1
5
L
14.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
2
0
W
Last matches: FC St. Pauli
24.07.26
Fri
FC St. Pauli
Bournemouth
1
4
L
19.07.26
Fri
FC St. Pauli
HNK Gorica
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
FC St. Pauli
SV Babelsberg 03
4
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
FC St. Pauli
Kickers Emden
3
1
W
30.06.26
Fri
FC St. Pauli
Altona 93
6
2
W
16.05.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg
1
3
L
03.05.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
1
2
L
25.04.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
0
2
L
17.04.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Köln
1
1
D
11.04.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Bayern München
0
5
L
05.04.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Union Berlin
1
1
D
22.03.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
SC Freiburg
1
2
L
13.03.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
2
L
08.03.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Eintracht Frankfurt
0
0
D
28.02.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
1899 Hoffenheim
1
0
W
22.02.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Werder Bremen
2
1
W
14.02.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Bayer Leverkusen
0
4
L
07.02.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
VfB Stuttgart
2
1
W
31.01.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
FC Augsburg
1
2
L
27.01.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
RB Leipzig
1
1
D
H2H: RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli
09.05.26
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
2
1
W
27.01.26
H2H
FC St. Pauli
RB Leipzig
1
1
D
09.02.25
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
2
0
W
29.10.24
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
4
2
W
22.09.24
H2H
FC St. Pauli
RB Leipzig
0
0
D
12.02.16
H2H
FC St. Pauli
RB Leipzig
1
0
L
23.08.15
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
0
1
L
03.05.15
H2H
FC St. Pauli
RB Leipzig
1
0
L
23.11.14
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
4
1
W
Last matches: RB Leipzig
24.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
3
1
W
11.04.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
0
W
20.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
1899 Hoffenheim
5
0
W
07.03.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
2
1
W
21.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund
2
2
D
15.02.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
VfL Wolfsburg
2
2
D
31.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05
1
2
L
17.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
Bayern München
1
5
L
14.01.26
Bun
RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
2
0
W
20.12.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen
1
3
L
06.12.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt
6
0
W
23.11.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
2
0
W
01.11.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
3
1
W
18.10.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
2
1
W
20.09.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
1. FC Köln
3
1
W
30.08.25
Bun
RB Leipzig
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
H2H at home: RB Leipzig
09.05.26
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
2
1
W
09.02.25
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
2
0
W
29.10.24
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
4
2
W
23.08.15
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
0
1
L
23.11.14
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
4
1
W
Last matches: FC St. Pauli
24.07.26
Fri
FC St. Pauli
Bournemouth
1
4
L
11.07.26
Fri
FC St. Pauli
SV Babelsberg 03
4
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
FC St. Pauli
Kickers Emden
3
1
W
30.06.26
Fri
FC St. Pauli
Altona 93
6
2
W
25.04.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
0
2
L
05.04.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Union Berlin
1
1
D
13.03.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
2
L
28.02.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
1899 Hoffenheim
1
0
W
14.02.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Bayer Leverkusen
0
4
L
31.01.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
FC Augsburg
1
2
L
17.01.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Dortmund
2
3
L
14.01.26
Bun
FC St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg
1
2
L
21.12.25
Bun
FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
0
0
D
06.12.25
Bun
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Köln
1
1
D
29.11.25
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Bayern München
1
3
L
09.11.25
Bun
FC St. Pauli
SC Freiburg
1
2
L
25.10.25
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Eintracht Frankfurt
0
2
L
04.10.25
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Werder Bremen
0
1
L
19.09.25
Bun
FC St. Pauli
VfB Stuttgart
0
2
L
29.08.25
Bun
FC St. Pauli
Hamburger SV
2
0
W
H2H away: FC St. Pauli
09.05.26
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
2
1
L
09.02.25
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
2
0
L
29.10.24
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
4
2
L
23.08.15
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
0
1
W
23.11.14
H2H
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
4
1
L

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

RB Leipzig 6 missing
-
V. Gebel
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Sani
Missing Fixture Hip Injury
OUT
-
L. Zingerle
Missing Fixture Wrist Injury
OUT
-
C. Lukeba
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
E. Banzuzi
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
D. Raum
Questionable Groin Injury
OUT
FC St. Pauli 5 missing
-
R. Jones
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
J. Sands
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
M. Saliakas
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
M. Pereira Lage
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
K. Mets
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT