BRAZIL SERIE A
05.09.2026 19:00
Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques
Referee: Maguielson Lima Barbosa, Brazil
RB Bragantino
Match Timeline
Bahia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
Lucas Barbosa · Assist: Wallace Yan
RB Bragantino
34'
Luciano Juba
Bahia
38'
A. Veliz · Assist: Rodrigo
Bahia
🟨
43'
Fernando
RB Bragantino
45'
S. Ramos
RB Bragantino
50'
Erick · Assist: Rodrigo
Bahia
🟨
51'
Erick
Bahia
🟨
62'
Luciano Juba
Bahia
🔄
68'
J. Herrera ↔ H. Mosquera
RB Bragantino
🔄
68'
Erick ↔ Jean Lucas
Bahia
🔄
68'
Erick Pulga ↔ Ademir
Bahia
🔄
78'
Nicolas Acevedo ↔ Caio Alexandre
Bahia
🔄
78'
Rodrigo ↔ Michel Araujo
Bahia
🔄
82'
A. Hurtado ↔ R. Tavares
RB Bragantino
🔄
82'
Wallace Yan ↔ Vinicinho
RB Bragantino
🔄
82'
Lucas Barbosa ↔ Jhuan
RB Bragantino
🔄
82'
A. Veliz ↔ Willian Jose
Bahia
🔄
90+4'
Rodriguinho ↔ Gustavo Neves
RB Bragantino

RB Bragantino vs Bahia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.1%
Odds 2.05
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds 2.09
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.1%
2.05
BTTS No
55%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
2.09
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.16
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 1-0
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
RB Bragantino Win 50.1%
Draw 14.6%
Bahia Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
RB Bragantino1.23
Bahia1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
WWDLW
31 GF / 26 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
43 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
12
BTTS Yes
18
10
Over 2.5
14
4.75
Shots on Goal
4.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 25 matches
Bahia Bahia 29 matches
RB Bragantino Statistic Bahia
11 Wins 12
5 Draws 10
9 Losses 7
31 Goals For 43
26 Goals Against 35
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
12 BTTS Yes 18
19 Over 1.5 24
10 Over 2.5 14
2 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 5
4.75 Shots On Goal 4.7
15.88 Total Shots 14.44
5.63 Corners 5.56
50.6% Ball Possession 55.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bahia. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with RB Bragantino expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

RB Bragantino Analysis

RB Bragantino sit 7 with 35 points after 23 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 28:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Isidro Pitta (6 goals), Lucas Barbosa (4 goals), Juninho Capixaba (2 goals), with creative support from Henry Mosquera (3 assists), Isidro Pitta (2 assists), Lucas Barbosa (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Bahia Analysis

So far, Bahia have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 37 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 34:28 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luciano Juba (6 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, RB Bragantino won 5 times, Bahia won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:26 from RB Bragantino's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1 / Bahia 4-3-3
Missing players: RB Bragantino 5, Bahia 4
H2H summary: RB Bragantino wins 5, draws 2, Bahia wins 8

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
4 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
5
Bahia Away
27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B