🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Subaru Park
Referee: F. Bazakos
Philadelphia Union
Match Timeline
New York Red Bulls
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
M. Iloski
Philadelphia Union
38'
C. Cowell · Assist: E. Forsberg
New York Red Bulls
🔄
46'
M. Dos Santos ↔ O. Valencia
New York Red Bulls
🔄
56'
J. Sery Larsen ↔ N. Pierre
Philadelphia Union
57'
I. Vassilev · Assist: F. Westfield
Philadelphia Union
66'
N. Pierre · Assist: K. Wagner
Philadelphia Union
🔄
73'
I. Vassilev ↔ Q. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🔄
74'
E. Forsberg ↔ G. Berggren
New York Red Bulls
🔄
74'
C. Cowell ↔ M. Sofo
New York Red Bulls
🔄
74'
J. Marshall-Rutty ↔ J. Bazan
New York Red Bulls
🟨
77'
Ronald Donkor
New York Red Bulls
🟨
85'
Omar Valencia
New York Red Bulls
🔄
85'
C. Sullivan ↔ J. Bueno
Philadelphia Union
🔄
85'
M. Iloski ↔ E. Alladoh
Philadelphia Union
🟨
88'
Gustav Berggren
New York Red Bulls

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72.8%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 21%
Draw 6.2%
New York Red Bulls Win 72.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union1.86
New York Red Bulls1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
40 GF / 39 GA
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WLDWL
38 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.81
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
2.14
14
BTTS Yes
15
14
Over 2.5
16
4.53
Shots on Goal
5.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 24 matches
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 21 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic New York Red Bulls
5 Wins 8
6 Draws 4
13 Losses 9
40 Goals For 38
39 Goals Against 45
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 2.14
14 BTTS Yes 15
19 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 4
4.53 Shots On Goal 5.07
14.68 Total Shots 13.47
5.84 Corners 6.07
47.8% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Philadelphia Union have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward New York Red Bulls. New York Red Bulls carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 22 points while Philadelphia Union sit 15 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward New York Red Bulls having the stronger overall control.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

With 7 points from 15 games and a place of 15, Philadelphia Union still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats with a 18:30 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Iloski (7 goals), D. Jean Jacques (2 goals), A. Anello (1 goals), with creative support from A. Bedoya (2 assists), F. Westfield (2 assists), M. Iloski (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 22 points from 15 games, New York Red Bulls bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 25:32, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by J. Hall (9 goals), J. Ruvalcaba (7 goals), E. M. Choupo-Moting (2 goals), with creative support from Ronald Donkor (4 assists), J. Hall (3 assists), C. Cowell (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia Union won 9 times, New York Red Bulls won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:9 from Philadelphia Union's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
H2H summary: Philadelphia Union wins 9, draws 5, New York Red Bulls wins 1
Stats
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
8 Corner Kicks 6
13 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0
36% Ball Possession 64%
24 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Goal 5
10 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 2
16 Shots insidebox 7
8 Shots outsidebox 3
4 Goalkeeper Saves 6
280 Total passes 514
191 Passes accurate 430
3.10 expected_goals 0.81
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Philadelphia Union
Formation
New York Red Bulls
A. Blake
A. Blake
F. Westfield
🎯
F. Westfield
N. Harriel
N. Harriel
J. Sery Larsen
J. Sery Larsen
K. Wagner
🎯
K. Wagner
C. Sullivan
C. Sullivan
D. Jean Jacques
D. Jean Jacques
J. Lukic
J. Lukic
I. Vassilev
I. Vassilev
B. Damiani
B. Damiani
M. Iloski
M. Iloski
E. Horvath
E. Horvath
J. Marshall-Rutty
J. Marshall-Rutty
J. Che
J. Che
D. Nealis
D. Nealis
M. Dos Santos
M. Dos Santos
R. Donkor
R. Donkor
A. Mehmeti
A. Mehmeti
E. Forsberg
🎯
E. Forsberg
C. Cowell
C. Cowell
J. Hall
J. Hall
J. Ruvalcaba
J. Ruvalcaba
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Starting XI
18
A. Blake
G
39
F. Westfield
🎯 57'
D
26
N. Harriel
D
5
J. Sery Larsen
↓ 56'
D
27
K. Wagner
🎯 66'
D
6
C. Sullivan
↓ 85'
M
21
D. Jean Jacques
M
4
J. Lukic
M
19
I. Vassilev
⚽ 57' ↓ 73'
M
9
B. Damiani
F
10
M. Iloski
⚽ 9' ↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
76
A. Rick
G
11
A. Bedoya
M
33
Q. Sullivan
↑ 73'
M
44
N. Pierre
⚽ 66' ↑ 56'
D
8
J. Bueno
↑ 85'
M
28
A. Anello
F
16
B. Bender
M
2
G. Martinez
D
23
E. Alladoh
↑ 85'
F
New York Red Bulls 4-3-3 (estimated from previous match)
Starting XI
34
E. Horvath
G
3
J. Marshall-Rutty
↓ 74'
D
2
J. Che
D
12
D. Nealis
D
56
M. Dos Santos
↓ 46'
D
48
R. Donkor
🟨 77'
M
15
A. Mehmeti
M
10
E. Forsberg
🎯 38' ↓ 74'
M
7
C. Cowell
⚽ 38' ↓ 74'
F
16
J. Hall
F
11
J. Ruvalcaba
F
Substitutes
77
J. McCarthy
G
4
G. Berggren
↑ 74' 🟨 88'
M
70
A. Rojas
F
5
O. Valencia
↑ 46' 🟨 85'
D
37
M. Sofo
↑ 74'
F
26
T. Parker
D
80
N. Worth
M
14
J. Bazan
↑ 74'
D
91
M. Jimenez
F
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
19.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
2
2
D
16.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
3
2
W
01.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Seattle Sounders
1
0
W
24.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
6
L
16.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Orlando City SC
3
4
L
09.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC
0
0
D
25.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
3
3
D
18.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
11.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
1
W
04.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Charlotte
1
2
L
21.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
19.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
1
3
L
10.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
0
1
L
08.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
L
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
19.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
1
L
15.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
01.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
0
2
L
24.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
09.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
1
4
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
2
2
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
1
6
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
1
1
D
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Houston Dynamo
2
3
L
H2H: Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
22.07.26
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
W
16.08.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
0
L
13.08.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
12.07.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
31.08.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
2
W
06.07.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
03.09.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
4
1
W
09.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
06.05.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
1
W
03.09.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
0
2
W
14.05.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
20.11.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
0
W
29.09.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
09.07.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
16.05.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
0
W
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
19.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
2
2
D
01.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Seattle Sounders
1
0
W
16.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
02.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC
0
0
D
18.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
21.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
10.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
0
1
L
08.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
L
27.02.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Defence Force
7
0
W
10.02.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
4
L
07.02.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2
0
W
29.01.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
Buducnost Podgorica
3
0
W
H2H at home: Philadelphia Union
22.07.26
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
W
13.08.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
12.07.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
06.07.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
03.09.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
4
1
W
09.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
14.05.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
20.11.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
0
W
16.05.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
0
W
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
15.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
24.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
W
09.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
25.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
18.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
1
4
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
2
2
D
21.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
1
6
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
1
1
D
22.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Houston Dynamo
2
3
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
2
3
L
H2H away: New York Red Bulls
22.07.26
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
L
13.08.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
2
L
12.07.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
2
0
L
06.07.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
03.09.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
4
1
L
09.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
14.05.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
20.11.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
0
L
16.05.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
1
0
L

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 14 4 2 40:15 25 46
W W D L W
2 20 11 6 3 48:38 10 39
D L D W W
3 19 11 2 6 36:25 11 35
W W W L L
4 20 10 3 7 32:25 7 33
W L L D W
5 20 8 6 6 48:46 2 30
W D W L W
6 20 8 5 7 35:31 4 29
D W L W D
7 20 7 5 8 34:29 5 26
L L D W W
8 20 7 4 9 30:42 -12 25
L L W L L
9 20 5 9 6 27:33 -6 24
L D D W D
10 20 6 3 11 32:50 -18 21
L D L W W
11 20 4 9 7 29:36 -7 21
D W D L D
12 20 5 5 10 28:33 -5 20
L L D W L
13 20 5 5 10 30:37 -7 20
D W W W W
14 20 5 5 10 27:37 -10 20
W D D L L
15 20 5 3 12 23:35 -12 18
W W L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)