BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Nubank Parque
Referee: B. Machado

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.59
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.92
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.5%
1.59
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.95
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.92
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Palmeiras Win 82.5%
Draw 5.3%
Vasco DA Gama Win 12.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras1.63
Vasco DA Gama0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WWDLW
52 GF / 25 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
23 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.05
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
19
BTTS Yes
14
15
Over 2.5
12
4.94
Shots on Goal
5.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palmeiras Palmeiras 31 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 22 matches
Palmeiras Statistic Vasco DA Gama
18 Wins 5
9 Draws 7
4 Losses 10
52 Goals For 23
25 Goals Against 34
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
19 BTTS Yes 14
22 Over 1.5 16
15 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 4
11 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 7
4.94 Shots On Goal 5.09
15.1 Total Shots 17.5
5.9 Corners 5.32
53.3% Ball Possession 54.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Palmeiras's more proactive style and Vasco DA Gama's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Palmeiras expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. Vasco DA Gama arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Palmeiras arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 48 points compared to Vasco DA Gama in 18 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Vasco DA Gama. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 48 points after 23 matches. The record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 40:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through José Manuel López (6 goals), Allan (4 goals), Ramón Sosa (4 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (9 assists), José Manuel López (3 assists), Joaquín Piquerez (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama sit 18 with 22 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 23:31 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Andrés Gómez (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras won 10 times, Vasco DA Gama won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:8 from Palmeiras's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Palmeiras 4-4-2 / Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Palmeiras 3, Vasco DA Gama 3
H2H summary: Palmeiras wins 10, draws 4, Vasco DA Gama wins 1
Last matches: Palmeiras
19.08.26
CON
Palmeiras
Cerro Porteno
1
0
W
15.08.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Fluminense
2
3
L
12.08.26
CON
Palmeiras
Cerro Porteno
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Internacional
0
0
D
30.07.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Vitoria
4
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
22.07.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Coritiba
3
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Chapecoense-sc
1
0
W
28.05.26
CON
Palmeiras
Junior
4
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Flamengo
3
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Palmeiras
Cerro Porteno
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Remo
1
1
D
05.05.26
CON
Palmeiras
Sporting Cristal
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Santos
1
1
D
30.04.26
CON
Palmeiras
Cerro Porteno
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Palmeiras
RB Bragantino
1
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
16.04.26
CON
Palmeiras
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Corinthians
0
0
D
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
16.08.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
0
3
L
09.08.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
0
D
25.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
1
D
16.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
H2H: Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama
12.03.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
L
01.10.25
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
04.05.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
0
1
W
22.09.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
0
1
W
14.06.24
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
2
0
W
27.08.23
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
23.04.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
2
D
26.01.21
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
08.11.20
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
0
1
W
07.11.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
1
2
W
27.07.19
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
25.11.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
0
1
W
12.08.18
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco Da Gama
1
0
W
13.08.17
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
1
1
D
14.05.17
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
4
0
W
Last matches: Palmeiras
12.08.26
CON
Palmeiras
Cerro Porteno
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Internacional
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Chapecoense-sc
1
0
W
28.05.26
CON
Palmeiras
Junior
4
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Palmeiras
Cerro Porteno
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Santos
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
16.04.26
CON
Palmeiras
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
03.04.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Gremio
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Botafogo
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Mirassol
1
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Fluminense
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Palmeiras
Vitoria
5
1
W
H2H at home: Palmeiras
01.10.25
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
14.06.24
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
2
0
W
27.08.23
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
26.01.21
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
27.07.19
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
12.08.18
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco Da Gama
1
0
W
14.05.17
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
4
0
W
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
09.08.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
H2H away: Vasco DA Gama
01.10.25
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
L
14.06.24
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
2
0
L
27.08.23
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
26.01.21
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
27.07.19
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
14.05.17
H2H
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
4
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.97
Draw 4.17
Home 1.59
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.36
Draw 2.42
Home 2.13
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 2.0 1.45
Over 2.25 1.68
Over 2.5 1.92
Over 2.75 2.15
Over 3.0 2.59
Over 3.5 3.25
Over 4.5 6.42
Under 1.5 3.72
Under 2.0 2.88
Under 2.25 2.26
Under 2.5 1.97
Under 2.75 1.75
Under 3.0 1.53
Under 3.5 1.36
Under 4.5 1.13
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.25
Draw 4.00
Home 1.55
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 2.30
Home 2.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.60
Home 1.91
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 6.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 11.00
Under 1.5 3.75
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.87
Draw 4.01
Home 1.61
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.70
Draw 2.20
Home 2.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.30
Draw 2.62
Home 1.87
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.13
Over 1.5 1.24
Over 1.75 1.31
Over 2.0 1.39
Over 2.25 1.68
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 2.75 2.14
Over 3.0 2.44
Over 3.25 2.70
Over 3.5 2.99
Over 3.75 3.68
Over 4.0 4.95
Over 4.25 5.35
Over 4.5 5.70
Over 5.0 9.00
Over 5.5 11.50
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 0.75 8.70
Under 1.0 8.30
Under 1.25 4.66
Under 1.5 3.38
Under 1.75 3.06
Under 2.0 2.69
Under 2.25 2.24
Under 2.5 1.94
Under 2.75 1.74
Under 3.0 1.47
Under 3.25 1.36
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 3.75 1.20
Under 4.0 1.11
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.75
Draw 3.85
Home 1.57
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.40
Draw 2.28
Home 2.12
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 2.70
Home 1.91
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 2.0 1.44
Over 2.25 1.68
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 2.75 2.18
Over 3.0 2.65
Over 3.25 3.00
Over 3.5 3.30
Over 4.5 6.75
Over 5.5 13.00
Under 0.5 10.50
Under 1.5 3.60
Under 2.0 2.75
Under 2.25 2.17
Under 2.5 1.86
Under 2.75 1.68
Under 3.0 1.47
Under 3.25 1.38
Under 3.5 1.32
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.01

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 23 13 6 4 45:21 24 45
L W W D D
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 24 11 8 5 36:29 7 41
W W D D D
5 24 11 6 7 34:33 1 39
W W W W L
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 23 9 6 8 30:27 3 33
D W D W D
8 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 24 5 10 9 24:28 -4 25
D D D D L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Palmeiras 3 missing
-
Jefte
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
R. Sosa
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Paulinho
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
Vasco DA Gama 3 missing
-
Mateus Carvalho
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Brenner
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Jair
Questionable Injury
OUT