BRAZIL SERIE A
23.08.2026 19:00
Nubank Parque
Referee: Braulio Da Silva Machado, Brazil
Palmeiras
Match Timeline
Vasco DA Gama
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Marlon Freitas
Palmeiras
🟨
44'
Andrés Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
46'
A. Barboza ↔ Murilo
Palmeiras
47'
J. Lopez · Assist: Allan Elias
Palmeiras
🟨
50'
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
51'
Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
56'
Mauricio · Assist: Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
🔄
58'
Cuiabano ↔ Riquelme Avellar
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
58'
Thiago Mendes ↔ Ramon Rique
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
65'
David ↔ F. Colidio
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
65'
Adson ↔ N. Moreira
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
70'
Vitor Roque ↔ J. Arias
Palmeiras
🔄
71'
Marlon Freitas ↔ E. Martinez
Palmeiras
🔄
71'
Allan Elias ↔ Felipe Anderson
Palmeiras
🔄
72'
A. Gomez ↔ M. Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
83'
Robert Renan
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
83'
A. Giay ↔ Khellven
Palmeiras
89'
J. Lopez · Assist: J. Arias
Palmeiras
90'
F. Colidio
Vasco DA Gama

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.5%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Palmeiras Win 82.5%
Draw 5.3%
Vasco DA Gama Win 12.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras1.63
Vasco DA Gama0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WWDLW
52 GF / 25 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
23 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.05
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
19
BTTS Yes
14
15
Over 2.5
12
4.94
Shots on Goal
5.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palmeiras Palmeiras 31 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 22 matches
Palmeiras Statistic Vasco DA Gama
18 Wins 5
9 Draws 7
4 Losses 10
52 Goals For 23
25 Goals Against 34
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
19 BTTS Yes 14
22 Over 1.5 16
15 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 4
11 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 7
4.94 Shots On Goal 5.09
15.1 Total Shots 17.5
5.9 Corners 5.32
53.3% Ball Possession 54.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Palmeiras's more proactive style and Vasco DA Gama's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Palmeiras expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. Vasco DA Gama arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Palmeiras arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 48 points compared to Vasco DA Gama in 18 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Vasco DA Gama. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 48 points after 23 matches. The record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 40:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through José Manuel López (6 goals), Allan (4 goals), Ramón Sosa (4 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (9 assists), José Manuel López (3 assists), Joaquín Piquerez (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama sit 18 with 22 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 23:31 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Andrés Gómez (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras won 10 times, Vasco DA Gama won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:9 from Palmeiras's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Palmeiras 4-4-2 / Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Palmeiras 4, Vasco DA Gama 4
H2H summary: Palmeiras wins 10, draws 4, Vasco DA Gama wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
4 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
5 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B