ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
U-Power Stadium
Referee: D. Massa
Monza
Match Timeline
Catanzaro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Dany Mota
Monza
🟨
25'
Simone Pontisso
Catanzaro
39'
Fellipe Jack · Assist: S. Pontisso
Catanzaro
🔄
46'
D. Mota ↔ A. Petagna
Monza
🔄
46'
S. Pontisso ↔ M. Pompetti
Catanzaro
🔄
55'
F. Di Francesco ↔ G. Alesi
Catanzaro
🔄
63'
Fellipe Jack ↔ R. Frosinini
Catanzaro
🔄
69'
P. Cutrone ↔ G. Caso
Monza
🔄
70'
A. Carboni ↔ L. Lucchesi
Monza
🔄
74'
A. Bakoune ↔ V. Antov
Monza
🔄
78'
T. Cassandro ↔ M. D'Alessandro
Catanzaro
🔄
78'
M. Liberali ↔ N. Koffi
Catanzaro
78'
R. Frosinini · Assist: C. Favasuli
Catanzaro
🔄
83'
Hernani ↔ P. Obiang
Monza
🟨
85'
Ruggero Frosinini
Catanzaro
🟨
87'
Samuele Birindelli
Monza
🟨
90+5'
Demba Thiam
Monza
🟨
90+3'
Valentin Antov
Monza
🟨
90+2'
N'Dri Koffi
Catanzaro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 89.3%
Odds 1.87
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds 1.83
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
89.3%
1.87
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
1.83
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Monza Win 89.3%
Draw 0%
Catanzaro Win 10.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monza1.48
Catanzaro1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monza Monza
WWDLW
67 GF / 36 GA
Catanzaro Catanzaro
WLDWL
68 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.58
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
21
BTTS Yes
26
20
Over 2.5
23
4.79
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monza Monza 42 matches
Catanzaro Catanzaro 43 matches
Monza Statistic Catanzaro
24 Wins 17
11 Draws 14
7 Losses 12
67 Goals For 68
36 Goals Against 56
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
21 BTTS Yes 26
30 Over 1.5 35
20 Over 2.5 23
9 Over 3.5 16
17 Clean Sheets 11
6 Failed To Score 9
4.79 Shots On Goal 4.47
14.14 Total Shots 12.79
5.6 Corners 4.19
52.5% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Monza had more of the ball in the first leg (53% possession compared to 47%). Catanzaro carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 3 shots on goal compared to 2. Monza also attempted more passes (359 to 333) and completed 300. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Catanzaro.

Monza Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Monza arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 76 points after 38 matches. Their record of 22 wins, 10 draws, and 6 defeats with goals at 61:32 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on A. Petagna (9 goals), P. Cutrone (6 goals), D. Mota (5 goals), with creative support from P. Azzi (6 assists), A. Izzo (4 assists), A. Petagna (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the return of 14 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Catanzaro Analysis

Catanzaro come into this tie placed 5 in their league with 59 points from 38 matches. With 15 wins, 14 draws, and 9 losses plus a goal ratio of 62:51, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on P. Iemmello (13 goals), Filippo Pittarello (12 goals), Alphadjo Cissè (6 goals), with creative support from P. Iemmello (10 assists), Filippo Pittarello (6 assists), S. Pontisso (6 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Monza won 2 times, Catanzaro won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:4 from Monza's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Monza 3-4-2-1 / Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Monza wins 2, draws 1, Catanzaro wins 1
Stats
Monza Monza
Catanzaro Catanzaro
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
3 Corner Kicks 3
18 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 2
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Goal 8
2 Shots off Goal 5
3 Blocked Shots 2
5 Shots insidebox 11
4 Shots outsidebox 4
6 Goalkeeper Saves 4
244 Total passes 524
173 Passes accurate 444
0.61 expected_goals 1.16
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Monza
Formation
Catanzaro
D. Thiam
D. Thiam
S. Birindelli
S. Birindelli
F. Delli Carri
F. Delli Carri
A. Carboni
A. Carboni
A. Bakoune
A. Bakoune
L. Colombo
L. Colombo
M. Pessina
M. Pessina
P. Azzi
P. Azzi
Hernani
Hernani
D. Mota
D. Mota
P. Cutrone
P. Cutrone
M. Pigliacelli
M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
T. Cassandro
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini
Fellipe Jack
Fellipe Jack
C. Favasuli
🎯
C. Favasuli
J. Petriccione
J. Petriccione
S. Pontisso
🎯
S. Pontisso
F. Di Francesco
F. Di Francesco
M. Liberali
M. Liberali
F. Pittarello
F. Pittarello
P. Iemmello
P. Iemmello
Monza 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
20
D. Thiam
🟨 90+5'
G
19
S. Birindelli
🟨 87'
D
15
F. Delli Carri
D
44
A. Carboni
↓ 70'
D
24
A. Bakoune
↓ 74'
M
21
L. Colombo
M
32
M. Pessina
M
7
P. Azzi
M
8
Hernani
↓ 83'
F
47
D. Mota
↓ 46' 🟨 -5'
F
10
P. Cutrone
↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
1
S. Pizzignacco
G
37
A. Petagna
↑ 46'
F
26
P. Ciurria
F
30
G. Caso
↑ 69'
M
25
A. Alvarez
F
14
P. Obiang
↑ 83'
M
13
L. Ravanelli
D
6
V. Antov
↑ 74' 🟨 90+3'
D
2
A. Brorsson
D
28
A. Colpani
M
3
L. Lucchesi
↑ 70'
D
27
S. Capolupo
Catanzaro 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
22
M. Pigliacelli
G
84
T. Cassandro
↓ 78'
D
4
Matias Antonini
D
6
Fellipe Jack
⚽ 39' ↓ 63'
D
27
C. Favasuli
🎯 78'
M
10
J. Petriccione
M
20
S. Pontisso
🎯 39' ↓ 46' 🟨 25'
M
94
F. Di Francesco
↓ 55'
M
14
M. Liberali
↓ 78'
F
8
F. Pittarello
F
9
P. Iemmello
F
Substitutes
1
C. Marietta
G
77
M. D'Alessandro
↑ 78'
F
28
R. Oudin
M
21
M. Pompetti
↑ 46'
M
62
R. Frosinini
⚽ 78' ↑ 63' 🟨 85'
D
30
G. Alesi
↑ 55'
F
5
E. Bashi
D
23
N. Brighenti
D
39
N. Koffi
↑ 78' 🟨 90+2'
F
26
B. Verrengia
D
19
P. Nuamah
F
32
F. Rispoli
M
Last matches: Monza
24.05.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
2
0
W
19.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
08.05.26
Ser
Monza
Empoli
2
2
D
01.05.26
Ser
Monza
Mantova
2
3
L
24.04.26
Ser
Monza
Modena
1
0
W
17.04.26
Ser
Monza
Sampdoria
3
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Monza
Bari
2
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Monza
Venezia
1
1
D
17.03.26
Ser
Monza
Reggiana
0
0
D
14.03.26
Ser
Monza
Palermo
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ser
Monza
Spezia
2
4
L
03.03.26
Ser
Monza
Cesena
3
1
W
27.02.26
Ser
Monza
Virtus Entella
2
0
W
21.02.26
Ser
Monza
Carrarese
1
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
11.02.26
Ser
Monza
Sudtirol
0
0
D
08.02.26
Ser
Monza
Avellino
2
1
W
01.02.26
Ser
Monza
Padova
2
1
W
Last matches: Catanzaro
24.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
0
2
L
20.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
3
0
W
12.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
0
W
08.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Bari
2
3
L
01.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
2
3
L
25.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Spezia
4
2
W
18.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Juve Stabia
1
1
D
14.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Modena
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Cesena
1
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Padova
3
1
W
08.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Empoli
3
2
W
04.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Carrarese
3
3
D
01.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Frosinone
2
2
D
21.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
3
1
W
14.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Mantova
2
0
W
10.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Pescara
2
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Reggiana
2
0
W
H2H: Monza vs Catanzaro
29.05.26
H2H
Monza
Catanzaro
0
2
L
24.05.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Monza
0
2
W
06.04.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
04.10.25
H2H
Monza
Catanzaro
2
1
W
Last matches: Monza
19.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
08.05.26
Ser
Monza
Empoli
2
2
D
24.04.26
Ser
Monza
Modena
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Monza
Bari
2
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Monza
Venezia
1
1
D
14.03.26
Ser
Monza
Palermo
3
0
W
27.02.26
Ser
Monza
Virtus Entella
2
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
08.02.26
Ser
Monza
Avellino
2
1
W
24.01.26
Ser
Monza
Pescara
3
0
W
17.01.26
Ser
Monza
Frosinone
2
2
D
20.12.25
Ser
Monza
Carrarese
4
1
W
08.12.25
Ser
Monza
Sudtirol
1
1
D
23.11.25
Ser
Monza
Cesena
1
0
W
02.11.25
Ser
Monza
Spezia
1
0
W
25.10.25
Ser
Monza
Reggiana
3
1
W
04.10.25
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
2
1
W
27.09.25
Ser
Monza
Padova
0
1
L
20.09.25
Ser
Monza
Sampdoria
1
0
W
23.08.25
Ser
Monza
Mantova
1
0
W
H2H at home: Monza
29.05.26
H2H
Monza
Catanzaro
0
2
L
04.10.25
H2H
Monza
Catanzaro
2
1
W
Last matches: Catanzaro
20.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
0
2
L
01.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Juve Stabia
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Cesena
1
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Padova
3
1
W
04.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Carrarese
3
3
D
21.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
3
1
W
10.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Pescara
2
0
W
31.01.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Sudtirol
1
2
L
17.01.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Venezia
1
3
L
10.01.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Frosinone
0
2
L
19.12.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Bari
2
1
W
08.12.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Modena
2
1
W
08.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Empoli
0
1
L
29.10.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Mantova
3
1
W
04.10.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
1
2
L
01.10.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Sampdoria
0
0
D
20.09.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Reggiana
2
2
D
30.08.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Spezia
0
0
D
H2H away: Catanzaro
29.05.26
H2H
Monza
Catanzaro
0
2
W
04.10.25
H2H
Monza
Catanzaro
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.12
Draw 3.79
Home 1.87
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.68
Draw 2.39
Home 2.42
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.0 1.38
Over 2.25 1.60
Over 2.5 1.83
Over 2.75 2.03
Over 3.0 2.38
Over 3.25 2.64
Over 3.5 2.97
Over 4.5 5.64
Under 1.5 4.02
Under 2.0 3.12
Under 2.25 2.39
Under 2.5 2.05
Under 2.75 1.82
Under 3.0 1.61
Under 3.25 1.49
Under 3.5 1.41
Under 4.5 1.15
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 3.60
Home 1.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.25
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.50
Home 2.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.5 1.85
Over 3.5 3.25
Over 4.5 6.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 11.00
Under 1.5 3.75
Under 2.5 1.95
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.86
Draw 3.68
Home 1.98
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 2.19
Home 2.52
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.88
Draw 2.60
Home 2.28
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.00
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.14
Over 1.5 1.24
Over 1.75 1.31
Over 2.0 1.38
Over 2.25 1.63
Over 2.5 1.84
Over 2.75 1.99
Over 3.0 2.36
Over 3.25 2.62
Over 3.5 2.90
Over 3.75 3.42
Over 4.0 4.60
Over 4.25 4.88
Over 4.5 5.15
Over 4.75 5.90
Over 5.0 8.90
Over 5.5 12.50
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 9.20
Under 0.75 9.20
Under 1.0 8.40
Under 1.25 4.92
Under 1.5 3.60
Under 1.75 3.24
Under 2.0 2.88
Under 2.25 2.31
Under 2.5 1.99
Under 2.75 1.75
Under 3.0 1.54
Under 3.25 1.42
Under 3.5 1.35
Under 3.75 1.24
Under 4.0 1.14
Under 4.25 1.11
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 4.75 1.07
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 3.55
Home 1.78
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.30
Draw 2.25
Home 2.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.63
Home 2.14
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.0 1.38
Over 2.25 1.60
Over 2.5 1.81
Over 2.75 2.02
Over 3.0 2.40
Over 3.25 2.70
Over 3.5 3.00
Over 3.75 3.60
Over 4.0 4.80
Over 4.25 5.10
Over 4.5 5.40
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 2.0 2.75
Under 2.25 2.17
Under 2.5 1.87
Under 2.75 1.68
Under 3.0 1.48
Under 3.25 1.38
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 3.75 1.23
Under 4.0 1.13
Under 4.25 1.12
Under 4.5 1.11

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3
Monza Home
38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L