Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
81.9%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
75.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
61.1%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Fluminense
Bahia
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Fluminense
28 matches
Bahia
24 matches
| Fluminense | Statistic | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wins | 10 |
| 8 | Draws | 7 |
| 7 | Losses | 7 |
| 45 | Goals For | 35 |
| 33 | Goals Against | 30 |
| 1.61 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.46 |
| 1.18 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.25 |
| 20 | BTTS Yes | 16 |
| 24 | Over 1.5 | 21 |
| 14 | Over 2.5 | 12 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 5 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 3 |
| 5.38 | Shots On Goal | 4.64 |
| 14.77 | Total Shots | 13.09 |
| 5.04 | Corners | 5.73 |
| 60.4% | Ball Possession | 53.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fluminense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bahia. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Placed 3 with 32 points from 19 outings, Fluminense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 29:24 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.
Bahia are currently 6 in the standings with 30 points from 19 matches. The record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 28:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Luciano Juba (6 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (2 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), David Duarte (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense won 8 times, Bahia won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:11 from Fluminense's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.
Fluminense
11
0
11
6
2
4
Lineups
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
Palmeiras
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
Botafogo
Fluminense
Gremio
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
Fluminense
Bahia
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
Fluminense
Mirassol
Fluminense
Bolívar
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
Vitoria
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
Internacional
Fluminense
Bolívar
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
Fluminense
Santos
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
Corinthians
Bahia
Atletico-MG
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
Fluminense
Bahia
Atletico Torque
Bahia
Botafogo
Bahia
Coritiba
Bahia
Gremio
Bahia
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Bahia
Santos
Bahia
Flamengo
Bahia
Mirassol
Bahia
Palmeiras
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
Remo
Bahia
RB Bragantino
Bahia
Internacional
Fluminense
Palmeiras
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
Fluminense
Bahia
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
Fluminense
Bolívar
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
Vitoria
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
Flamengo
Fluminense
Corinthians
Fluminense
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
Botafogo
Fluminense
Gremio
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
Atletico-MG
Bahia
Fluminense
Bahia
Coritiba
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Bahia
Flamengo
Bahia
Mirassol
Bahia
Remo
Bahia
Internacional
Bahia
O'Higgins
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
Corinthians
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40:19 | 21 | 48 |
L
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 44:19 | 25 | 45 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31:20 | 11 | 41 |
D
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 |
Fluminense
Home
|
23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 34:28 | 6 | 38 |
W
D
D
D
D
|
| 5 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 32:32 | 0 | 36 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 6 |
Bahia
Away
|
23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32:28 | 4 | 34 |
D
D
D
D
D
|
| 7 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 27:23 | 4 | 32 |
D
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30:27 | 3 | 32 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25:22 | 3 | 32 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 31 |
D
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35:34 | 1 | 30 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 12 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23:33 | -10 | 29 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27:26 | 1 | 27 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32:35 | -3 | 25 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 25 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24:28 | -4 | 24 |
D
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 23 |
L
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 18 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27:37 | -10 | 23 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 19 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23:34 | -11 | 22 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23:46 | -23 | 11 |
D
L
D
L
L
|