BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: R. Claus
Fluminense
Match Timeline
Bahia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Ignacio
Fluminense
🔄
42'
J. Freytes ↔ Thiago Silva
Fluminense
🟨
49'
Erick Pulga
Bahia
🔄
62'
↔ Igor Rabello
Fluminense
🔄
62'
Martinelli ↔ Hercules
Fluminense
🔄
62'
L. Acosta ↔ J. Savarino
Fluminense
🔄
65'
Ademir ↔ Everton Ribeiro
Bahia
🔄
65'
Luciano Juba ↔ Michel Araujo
Bahia
🔄
74'
Jean Lucas ↔ David Martins
Bahia
🔄
75'
Hulk ↔ G. Cano
Fluminense
🔄
75'
Erick Pulga ↔ Kaue Junior
Bahia
🔄
88'
A. Veliz ↔ Willian Jose
Bahia
🟨
90+1'
L. Zubeldia
Fluminense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.9%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fluminense Win 81.9%
Draw 5%
Bahia Win 13.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fluminense1.47
Bahia1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fluminense Fluminense
WWDLW
45 GF / 33 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
35 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.61
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
20
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
12
5.38
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fluminense Fluminense 28 matches
Bahia Bahia 24 matches
Fluminense Statistic Bahia
13 Wins 10
8 Draws 7
7 Losses 7
45 Goals For 35
33 Goals Against 30
1.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
20 BTTS Yes 16
24 Over 1.5 21
14 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 3
5.38 Shots On Goal 4.64
14.77 Total Shots 13.09
5.04 Corners 5.73
60.4% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fluminense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bahia. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Fluminense Analysis

Placed 3 with 32 points from 19 outings, Fluminense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 29:24 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia are currently 6 in the standings with 30 points from 19 matches. The record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 28:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Luciano Juba (6 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (2 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), David Duarte (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense won 8 times, Bahia won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:11 from Fluminense's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Fluminense 4-2-3-1 / Bahia 4-3-3
Missing players: Fluminense 6, Bahia 7
H2H summary: Fluminense wins 8, draws 3, Bahia wins 4
Stats
Fluminense Fluminense
Bahia Bahia
Shots on Goal
11
Shots on Goal
0
Shots off Goal
11
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
4
8 Corner Kicks 1
7 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 3
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Goal 0
11 Shots off Goal 6
2 Blocked Shots 4
13 Shots insidebox 4
11 Shots outsidebox 6
0 Goalkeeper Saves 10
528 Total passes 387
463 Passes accurate 327
2.25 expected_goals 0.43
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Fluminense
Formation
Bahia
Fabio
Fabio
Samuel Xavier
Samuel Xavier
Ignacio
Ignacio
J. Freytes
J. Freytes
Rene
Rene
Nonato
Nonato
Martinelli
Martinelli
A. Canobbio
A. Canobbio
L. Acosta
L. Acosta
Y. Soteldo
Y. Soteldo
Hulk
Hulk
Ronaldo Strada
Ronaldo Strada
R. Gomez
R. Gomez
Marcos Victor
Marcos Victor
S. Ramos
S. Ramos
Luciano Juba
Luciano Juba
Nicolas Acevedo
Nicolas Acevedo
Rodrigo
Rodrigo
Ademir
Ademir
Jean Lucas
Jean Lucas
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga
A. Veliz
A. Veliz
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Fabio
G
2
Samuel Xavier
D
4
Ignacio
🟨 11'
D
22
J. Freytes
↓ 42'
D
6
Rene
D
16
Nonato
M
8
Martinelli
↓ 62'
M
17
A. Canobbio
M
32
L. Acosta
↓ 62'
M
30
Y. Soteldo
M
7
Hulk
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
27
Marcelo Pitaluga
G
3
Thiago Silva
↑ 42'
D
10
PH Ganso
M
25
Alisson
M
23
Guga
D
21
Igor Rabello
↑ 62'
D
35
Hercules
↑ 62'
M
94
Otavio
M
14
G. Cano
↑ 75'
F
11
J. Savarino
↑ 62'
F
90
K. Serna
F
28
Riquelme Felipe
F
Bahia 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Ronaldo Strada
G
31
R. Gomez
D
44
Marcos Victor
D
21
S. Ramos
D
46
Luciano Juba
↓ 65'
D
5
Nicolas Acevedo
M
11
Rodrigo
M
7
Ademir
↓ 65'
M
6
Jean Lucas
↓ 74'
M
16
Erick Pulga
↓ 75' 🟨 49'
M
9
A. Veliz
↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
17
G. Herrera
G
12
Willian Jose
↑ 88'
F
10
Everton Ribeiro
↑ 65'
M
15
Michel Araujo
↑ 65'
M
23
M. Sanabria
F
55
Sidney Duarte
M
4
Kanu
D
43
Luiz Gustavo
D
77
Ruan Pablo
F
67
Wendel Passos
M
63
David Martins
↑ 74'
M
57
Kaue Junior
↑ 75'
M
Last matches: Fluminense
18.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
15.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
3
2
W
11.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
09.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
Last matches: Bahia
16.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
09.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
1
1
D
21.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
12.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Fluminense
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
H2H: Fluminense vs Bahia
30.07.26
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
0
0
D
12.07.26
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
05.02.26
H2H
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
07.12.25
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
10.09.25
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
28.08.25
H2H
Bahia
Fluminense
1
0
L
10.08.25
H2H
Bahia
Fluminense
3
3
D
04.08.24
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
1
0
W
17.04.24
H2H
Bahia
Fluminense
2
1
L
31.10.23
H2H
Bahia
Fluminense
1
0
L
24.06.23
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
1
W
05.12.21
H2H
Bahia
Fluminense
2
0
L
30.08.21
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
04.02.21
H2H
Bahia
Fluminense
0
1
W
11.10.20
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
1
0
W
Last matches: Fluminense
15.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
3
2
W
11.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Flamengo
1
2
L
02.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Corinthians
3
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
3
2
W
12.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
2
1
W
H2H at home: Fluminense
30.07.26
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
0
0
D
12.07.26
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
07.12.25
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
10.09.25
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
04.08.24
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
1
0
W
24.06.23
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
1
W
30.08.21
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
11.10.20
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
1
0
W
Last matches: Bahia
16.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
21.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Fluminense
0
2
L
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
H2H away: Bahia
30.07.26
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
0
0
D
12.07.26
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
L
07.12.25
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
L
10.09.25
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
L
04.08.24
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
1
0
L
24.06.23
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
1
L
30.08.21
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
L
11.10.20
H2H
Fluminense
Bahia
1
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6
Bahia Away
23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Fluminense 6 missing
-
Guilherme Arana
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Jemmes
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
J. Millan
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
John Kennedy
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
Matheus Reis
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
K. Serna
Questionable Injury
OUT
Bahia 7 missing
-
Leo Vieira
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
David Duarte
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Ze Guilherme
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Caio Alexandre
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Erick
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
C. Olivera
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
M. Moreno
Missing Fixture Lacking Match Fitness
OUT